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Okay. I wouldn't worry too much about these things, since in any embryo selection other factors will outweigh IQ. In IVF, embryos are already screened for chromosomal defects. They are also graded based on a cell development and uniformity.
If (lucky you!) you had multiple embryos with no defects and high grades, then you might do additional screening which is already available from Orchid. This might tell you if your child had a high risk of chronic disease or mental illness. If you still had multiple candidate embryos after all that, you might choose one based on IQ. But consider the uncertainty of this test, and also how siblings already exhibit a high degree of similarity with IQ. The difference in expected IQ might be 1 or 2 points with huge error bars.
So I wouldn't worry that we're going to be breeding people like pugs with huge defects caused by over selecting for obscure characteristics.
The biggest risk to our genetic health is that people are having children later in life and intelligent people have too few children.
Where's you getting this from? Per Jensen, average difference between sibs is 12-13 IQ points. If your PGS captures r^2=25% variance, then expected difference is 12.5*sqrt(0.25) IQ points. (That is about 10-20% difference in income when adult). That's for two embryos only. Steve Hsu gave more data - how how far you go with more embryos - but i can't remember where it was
Nobody knows how much of the variance is captured. I assume a low amount as this is unproven technology.
I'll grant that I assumed the average difference between sibling was less than 12-13 points, so if that's true I'll admit the difference in IQ can be more than 1 or 2 points.
(Caveat: even though IQ is mostly genetic, it's still partially environmental. So if the mean difference is 12-13 points, the mean genetic difference is less.)
Nevertheless, until we radically change how IVF works we won't be selecting from dozens of embryos. I still rate this intervention as incredibly minor without further advancements.
Sasha Gusev lists IQ PGS as explaining 41% variance at population level and 14% between sibs, since he tries to give as much deflated numbers as possible without lying, true must be higher.
sibs share environment.
ROI of improvement in possible child income by IVF PGD expenses is high
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