A typical (so typical they did another two this morning and nobody paid attention) Starlink launch has the booster fire its engines, then shut them down, then fire them again for a reentry burn, then shut them down, then fire them again for the landing burn. For a return-to-launch-site mission like their two last month there's also a fourth startup and shutdown for the boostback burn.
There may be someone at the FAA who thinks four ignitions in a row (where the second ignition aims the rocket back at the coast of Florida!) without inspection is fine, but six ignitions in a row with only a brief inspection after the third is crazy, but I doubt it. The feds are pretty good about making distinctions between airline safety (where we're down to something like 1 fatal incident per million commercial flights and rightly proud of it) or astronaut safety (where NASA wants 1-in-250 or better) vs unmanned flight safety. In the most extremely opposite case, unmanned test flight safety, FAA rules have been as lenient as "yup, both halves of that Starship sure screwed up and exploded right where you warned us they might screw up and explode; carry on" after the 3rd test.
The FAA has rightfully cracked down on a bunch of Falcon 9 issues recently, and Starship shouldn't be any better, but it shouldn't be any worse. Not doing a return-to-landing-site or return-to-tower didn't save SpaceX from those crackdowns. Booster fails its 24th landing, on an unmanned ship, in the middle of nowhere, in a NOTMAR zone behind a "Beware of the Leopard" sign? Falcon 9 grounded for days. Second stage deorbit burn is 0.5 seconds too long and it burns up slightly short of where it was expected to burn up? Falcon 9 grounded for weeks. It doesn't matter whether there's a ship or a tower that might get damaged on a failed landing; they'd get grounded for an investigation of what led to any landing they didn't expect to fail, to find any root cause that might affect other phases of flight too.
The FAA hasn't been obviously right about how they license SpaceX flight plan changes lately (though it was nice that they finished the IFT-5 license as quickly as they did in the end), but that's a separate issue from incident investigations. And I did notice that they've been obviously wrong about not requiring an investigation for that last ULA Vulcan flight, where the rocket lost the nozzle of a solid rocket booster (an antiquated design in part because it can have no "off" switch, only a "kaboom" switch) mid-ascent. Considering that case makes me worry a little more about political adversaries than military ones. The contrast between "I want to build cities in space" Bezos speeches versus "you can't launch that often!" Bezos protests is particularly sad.
You're welcome. It is an argument, though, to be fair, not a proof. I have to admit I felt better about seeing them attempt the tower catch after they finished stacking the second Texas launch tower, and I would have felt better still if they had the second tower operational already.
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Notes -
A typical (so typical they did another two this morning and nobody paid attention) Starlink launch has the booster fire its engines, then shut them down, then fire them again for a reentry burn, then shut them down, then fire them again for the landing burn. For a return-to-launch-site mission like their two last month there's also a fourth startup and shutdown for the boostback burn.
There may be someone at the FAA who thinks four ignitions in a row (where the second ignition aims the rocket back at the coast of Florida!) without inspection is fine, but six ignitions in a row with only a brief inspection after the third is crazy, but I doubt it. The feds are pretty good about making distinctions between airline safety (where we're down to something like 1 fatal incident per million commercial flights and rightly proud of it) or astronaut safety (where NASA wants 1-in-250 or better) vs unmanned flight safety. In the most extremely opposite case, unmanned test flight safety, FAA rules have been as lenient as "yup, both halves of that Starship sure screwed up and exploded right where you warned us they might screw up and explode; carry on" after the 3rd test.
The FAA has rightfully cracked down on a bunch of Falcon 9 issues recently, and Starship shouldn't be any better, but it shouldn't be any worse. Not doing a return-to-landing-site or return-to-tower didn't save SpaceX from those crackdowns. Booster fails its 24th landing, on an unmanned ship, in the middle of nowhere, in a NOTMAR zone behind a "Beware of the Leopard" sign? Falcon 9 grounded for days. Second stage deorbit burn is 0.5 seconds too long and it burns up slightly short of where it was expected to burn up? Falcon 9 grounded for weeks. It doesn't matter whether there's a ship or a tower that might get damaged on a failed landing; they'd get grounded for an investigation of what led to any landing they didn't expect to fail, to find any root cause that might affect other phases of flight too.
The FAA hasn't been obviously right about how they license SpaceX flight plan changes lately (though it was nice that they finished the IFT-5 license as quickly as they did in the end), but that's a separate issue from incident investigations. And I did notice that they've been obviously wrong about not requiring an investigation for that last ULA Vulcan flight, where the rocket lost the nozzle of a solid rocket booster (an antiquated design in part because it can have no "off" switch, only a "kaboom" switch) mid-ascent. Considering that case makes me worry a little more about political adversaries than military ones. The contrast between "I want to build cities in space" Bezos speeches versus "you can't launch that often!" Bezos protests is particularly sad.
This is a fair argument, and I appreciate you taking the time to make it.
You're welcome. It is an argument, though, to be fair, not a proof. I have to admit I felt better about seeing them attempt the tower catch after they finished stacking the second Texas launch tower, and I would have felt better still if they had the second tower operational already.
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