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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   33194 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 10, 2022

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If it were the Russians, why would they blow up their own pipeline and not an enemy pipeline? They control Nordstream, they don't control the Norwegian-Polish pipeline or other pipelines that reduce their leverage and fuel their enemies.

Possible reasons why Russia blew the pipes;

  1. They want Germany to agree to use NS2.

  2. As propaganda for Russians, so they feel like the west is attacking them

  3. As a demonstration to other countries that they have the resources to take out pipelines and other infrastructure and not leave a trace of evidence (or see if those countries can find any trace of evidence)

  4. Russia wanted the pipelines out of commission because they are shifting their focus towards the east, and they are going to strip down this pipeline so they can speed up construction of those eastern pipelines

  5. Backroom peace talks focused too heavily on NS1, and Russia wanted that off the table

  6. The possibility of getting fuel from the pipes makes gas futures slightly cheaper, and Russia wanted to drive them higher, because economic pressure has been one of their biggest war tactics

People have suggested that it was Putin's plot to secure himself from regime change by denying a revenue source that a successor could draw upon by rapprochement with the West. But a successor to Putin can draw upon the resources of the entire Russian state!

A successor to Putin will still need public support. I know we pretend Russia isn't a democracy, but a Putin successor would need the consent of the people to rule. One easy way to get that consent is saying "I'll turn on the pipeline." That card is largely gone, for now. Restoring relations with the west is no longer a simple turn of a valve.

The argument that Putin blew up his own pipeline that gives him leverage over Europe is silly. The US has both the means and the motive.

Everyone has means and motives. China has means and motive. So does Germany. Hell, the UK has means and motives. Israel, Iran, India. Greenpeace has the means and the motives. To say that Russia doesn't just because the US does is silly. Russia has as much motive to do it as anyone else. This is basically a game of Clue; everybody is a suspect.

They want Germany to agree to use NS2.

It's not common to see merchants destroy their own wares to make them more attractive to buyers! Only 1 pipe of NS2 is left. Why would Germany prefer to use 1/4 pipelines when they could use 4/4?

As a demonstration to other countries that they have the resources to take out pipelines and other infrastructure and not leave a trace of evidence (or see if those countries can find any trace of evidence)

How is this an argument for Russia doing it?

Imagine I murder someone in some undetectable way and don't leave any evidence it was me. It's not a show of my strength since it's undetectable! It would only be a show of strength if it was my business rival or political enemy and I couldn't be directly blamed, yet everyone suspects me because I gain something. This is an argument for the US being behind it, not Russia.

Backroom peace talks focused too heavily on NS1, and Russia wanted that off the table

NS1 is an asset to Russian peace talks. They can say 'we can send you gas again if you agree to our annexations'. If it's gone, then they can't say that.

As propaganda for Russians, so they feel like the west is attacking them

The sanctions explicitly designed to crush the Russian economy and Western weapons explicitly supplied to kill Russian soldiers weren't enough? This would also justify George Bush attacking the WTC to make Americans think they're under attack. Or the Ukrainians shelling their own cities to whip up international outrage over civilian casualties.

No way on (2). When Putin needs a Casus Belli he bombs some civvies. He wouldn't torch something that was making good money.

It wasn't making money. That was rather the a point of why it didn't affect gas prices mechanically as much as emotionally.

The pipelines destroyed were filled (pre-pressurized), but not active, and had been inactive so long that they were likely due for a long and expensive maintenance period before they could be activated anyway.

Nor has not-making good money exactly stopped Putin's pipeline strategy, given the rather implausible maintenance shutdowns and refusal to accept claimed required maintenance parts. Putin's strategy is to hurt the Europeans, not make the most money for himself.

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