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Notes -
I don't think we can go farther than probably did. The apex of reduced transmission coincided with summer months in most countries where we have good data. The omicron case load increase occurs as we head into winter at around the time that initial dose course vaccine immunity likely begins to wane. The confluence of new strains, waning immunity, and seasonality all likely played a role in the apparent reduction of vaccine efficacy against transmission. Still, the apparent efficacy at preventing infection and demonstrable induction of a significant neutralizing antibody response makes it seem pretty likely that the initial vaccine worked as intended against the prevailing strains, at least for a few months.
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