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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 30, 2024

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In theory it shouldn't need to be an issue - historically, Persia/Iran has been one of the safest and friendly countries in the region to Jews, and today there's no obvious material necessity for conflict. In fact, they would seem to have common interests, especially since both the Israelis and the Iranians hate the Arabs. Israel-Turkey-Iran would be a fairly natural anti-Arab alliance.

I believe the issue is the West. Iran also very much hates the Americans and the British, for understandable reasons going back to WWII and earlier, and Israel is understood to be a proxy or ally of those powers in the Middle East. Ideologically, after the revolution Iran also developed a view of itself as the aspiring champion of Islam, and insofar as Israel represents a major non-Islamic incursion on to core Islamic territory, attacking Israel is a great way to make that view credible to others.

The spiritual leadership of the Islamic world is something valuable, and multiple powers have sought to assume that role before. The most natural candidate for it is usually whoever controls the Hejaz, which at present is Saudi Arabia. The Saudis make a good effort at this - they're the Guardians of the Holy Places, which counts for much. However, the Saudis are also visibly quite corrupt, they're closely linked to the Americans, and the Saudis are also now warming towards and becoming more friendly to Israel. Championing the Palestinian cause gives Iran an avenue into undermining Saudi Arabia's position. They're failing to act as the leader of the Islamic world; therefore we will assume that role.

This isn't really about Palestine in a direct sense. The idea of Palestine as a 'nation of martyrs' has great pull in the Islamic world, and supporting or championing Palestine is a good way to get credit as a leader of Islam. However, that doesn't extend to actually caring about Palestinian people or wanting the situation resolved. That was why, immediately after October 7, Hezbollah chucked a few rockets across the border but kept it fairly limited, to avoid escalation. Generally Iran does the minimum needed to make their claim to be the leader of the Islamic world seem credible, but pulls back before it does anything truly risky. Iran doesn't want to fight Israel. Iran wants to be seen to fight Israel.

They're pushing it a bit more at the moment - contra the OP, they haven't formally declared war, but as the conflict escalates, they need to increase their commitment in order to maintain the perception that they're the leaders. Of course, this may eventually lead them into a war that no one truly wants...

There's also the dimension of political boogeymen and a common enemy are nice unifying forces. Iran is going through a rough time domestically, in part due to the West, in part not, but having someone to blame and to criticize is useful.

Plus, there's also some bad blood dating back to the Bush years, when Iran felt backstabbed by Bush including them in the "axis of evil", a missed era of rapprochement as far as I'm aware (IIRC, things were very slowly on the mend but there might be some other issue I forget about). No accident Ahmadinejad becomes president in 2005, who presided over a classic period of "death to America" and I believe some heightened Israeli hostility too.