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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   1675 thread views

Transnational Thursday for September 26, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Yeah I think 50% is about right. On one side, the only way for Israel to make the north safe again is to kick Hezbollah out over the Litani river. Where they should have been since 1980s if UN decisions weren't worth shit, but since they are, here we are. For Israel, the moment would never be as good as this again - they have the best casus belli ever, Hezbollah unquestionably started the fight, and with the Operation Grim Beeper being resounding success, the time is to strike the iron while it's hot.

On the other hand, Israel government is kinda shaky, and a lot of politicians there are itching for the opportunity to blame Bibi for "getting us into another war". And if it will be the full-scale war, there would be serious casualties - Hezbollah has a lot of rockets, and at least some of them will get to Tel-Aviv and other very densely populated areas, no defense works 100%. And Bibi's enemies will blame him for that (yes, they are definitely this cynical and more, politics is a very dirty sport). And, of course, the casualties on the IDF side will be way more than in Gaza too. Don't get me wrong - IDF is more than capable to kick Hezbollah's ass, but it won't be free, both in lives and in economic harm, and Israel is not eager to pay it. So if there's any glimmer of hope that there might be some other, cheaper, solution found, even if temporary, they will delay and hesitate for as long as possible.

I would assume US pressure against a ground invasion is also a significant factor in Israel's decision making here.

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