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Notes -
Armchair hypothesis from someone with no medical training: FTMs who start taking testosterone will see a big spike in athletic ability (testosterone is essentially a PED in this context). Adult MTFs who start hormone therapy will see a reduction in athletic ability, but they've already gone through male puberty and the changes that it wrought on their bodies (bone density, lung capacity) are pretty much hard-coded, so even though they'll have reduced athletic ability, it'll still be a lot closer to the male average than the female. And if you were already a professional athlete prior to commencing hormone therapy (e.g. Lia Thomas) your athletic ability was already dramatically higher than the male average: all hormone therapy will do is reduce it to something approximating the male average (or maybe within one standard deviation below), which is still radically higher than the female average (or even many professional female athletes).
There could be a similar mechanism at play when it comes to violent criminality. Adult FTMs who start taking testosterone will see a spike in aggression and hence become more prone to violent criminality. When adult MTFs start hormone therapy, their testosterone levels will reduce and they will see reduced levels of aggression as a result, but their testosterone levels might still be within one standard deviation below the male mean. Indeed, if you were already an unusually aggressive/violent man prior to starting hormone therapy, it probably meant that your testosterone levels were unusually high, so starting a hormone therapy regimen might only have reduced your testosterone levels to the male average or something approximating it.
The end result is that FTMs on hormones have significantly higher rates of violent criminality than the female average (i.e. more similar to the male average) and MTFs have rates of violent criminality which are maybe marginally lower than the male average, but this cashes out as a rounding error for most intents and purposes.
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