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Notes -
I use this same framework for a lot of my policy reasoning. It works for:
@faceh mentions this is useless because of second-order effects. I disagree strongly. The algebra problem gets slightly more complex, that's all. The rate of children killed by guns needs to be balanced against the value I ascribe (.99) to potentially having better weapons to kill criminals (probability X) or the National Guard (probability Y).
You can't make the equation too complex to where the changing variables are difficult to find in your mind. But using the gun control scenario as an example: Probability X and Y increased as race riots ran rampant across the country and the left began to flex their lawfare power. This, in turn, increased the acceptable amount of dead children I'm willing to accept to keep my semi-autos. This is what people mean by the gun control debate being over.
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