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Notes -
I agree that nuclear weapons are a straightforward answer to existential invasion threats by external powers, and for that reason I don’t put much stock in arguments about Israel’s population vs that of its neighbours.
Internal threats on the other hand are potentially more serious. To switch to another case for illustration, consider France. France need never again worry about Paris being occupied by Germany, but nuclear weapons are irrelevant to Houellebecq-style cultural outvoting. No French President would be willing to nuke the 19th Arrondisement to stop Islamist parties from gaining the Élysée. It’s questionable whether they’d even put up much of a fight if the votes were really against them.
Similarly, the greatest threats to Israel’s long-term existence surely come from within. To be clear, I’m certainly not saying that Arab-Israelis are all 5th columnists for Hamas. However, the nearby possible worlds in which Israel collapses are those in which some combination of internal forces — nationalist, anti-nationalist, Islamist, Haredi, opportunist, millenarian — leads to prolonged political instability and ultimate state collapse, all in a process that doesn’t present opportunities for nuclear deterrence.
I don't mind or quibble with your broader point about internal threats or other forms of state failure. There are interesting discussions to be had on what can cause state failure, and also how resilient states can be when they choose to be, but my position here is on the non-applicability of the historical metaphor.
If the Israelis fall for other internal reasons, it will still be a bad metaphor. The Crusader States did not fall to Saladin because of internal political identity/ideological shifts- the Crusader States fell because external armies marched on and overwhelmed them. Anything short of Israel being conquered by conventional armies would not be a meaningful historical reoccurence.
There is a separate point to be made that no insurgency has actually overthrown a state per see. The closest historical example of this was the Chinese communist takeover of China- a success the hinged on external armies (Japanese) devastating the Nationalists, even as the Communists formed (and were supported in forming) forces to wage a conventional war as opposed to an insurgency. Otherwise, insurgencies may drive a state to leave, or a state's leaders to concede as a political decision, but the actual ability to remove them from the field if they are willing to continue cracking down is basically nill. States may remove state armies... but States are precisely what nuclear deterrence works against, as states are- by necessity- centralized and static.
Haiti? (Though you can quibble on what "a state" means since France still existed).
Haiti was more a slave revolt, not an insurgency, which quickly formed a large (if not well equipped) army and established exclusive territorial control. While the war had it's shifts in relative power, particularly the suppression in 1802 with the capture of Toussaint which coincided with the defeat/defection of much of the initial Haitian army. However, the polish defection later in 1802 helped re-form the rebel army, and so the majority of the war was by organized forces rather than through insurgency.
(This does bring up the distinction between guerilla warfare- where organized forces exist but seek to avoid direct engagements against superior forces- and insurgencies- where there is no real organized field force- but in the case of Haiti the balance was away from insurgency.)
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