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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 9, 2024

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Personally I think I’ve arrived at, somewhat more charitably than the norm, I guess, that Trump’s advisors told him he needed a certain amount of votes to win the election, based on their forecast of turnout. He fixated on this to an unusual degree. Of course turnout was higher than expected, and so the votes to win was higher than expected, but he hit the old metric and I think felt entitled to win based on that. He couldn’t emotionally reconcile the dissonance. So he was hyper receptive to any and all theories that would confirm his gut feeling, and distrust of the media only amplified this (and of course he had a few too many yes-men around). At some point in the last few years I’m sure intellectually he finally realized this incongruity, but as a TV guy knows that the underdog, mistreated, but secretly a winner narrative is decently powerful. So he’s currently playing it up, but originally I think this was an honest but plainly flagrantly wrong belief.

As to Russia and many foreign policy issues, frankly I still, years later, really don’t have a good mental model for why Trump does anything that he does. The closest I can come is that he just flies by the seat of his pants on literally every decision.