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Notes -
There will be pressure on Harris to get in at least one "zinger", although it doesn't need to be too effective. She just needs to show that she can form a coherent thought to be better than Biden. Harris will be well-rehearsed so I doubt there's much of a chance that she self-destructs as spectacularly as Biden did. There's a chance that Trump could do something crazy, although he's too tired now to act like he did in 2020 so I also don't think the chance is that high. He can ramble semi-coherently and it will be enough since the bar is extremely low for him.
I'd say there's a 10% chance one candidate loses badly, a 30% chance Harris overperforms slightly, a 20% she underperforms slightly (relative to expectations), and a 40% chance that both candidates hold their own and nothing really happens.
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