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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   2298 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for September 6, 2024

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Bayes to the rescue: If you pull a gold coin from a box, that is strong evidence that the box is pure gold (because with a gold box, you will always get that measurement), neutral evidence that it is mixed (because with a mixed box you /can/ get that measurement) and rules out that you have the pure silver box.

If you start with a uniform prior, then you should end up with 2/3 pure gold, 1/3 mixed, which will give the probability you said.

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