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Notes -
Kennedy was polling historically well for a third-party candidate, and he will remain on the ballot in most non-swing states. The nationwide realclearpolitics polling average had him at about five percent, which means 5-7 million votes.
I guess I don’t consider that formidable. Gary Johnson was polling at around 8% in early September of 2016, but he ended up getting only 3.3% of the vote. By the time he dropped out of the race, Kennedy was polling at a measly 3.9%, and he would almost certainly have gotten an even smaller percentage of the vote if he had stayed in until November. In contrast, Ross Perot garnered 8.4% of the vote.
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