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That's counting batteries as "generation" rather than load shifting, btw. And it's like a 48GW real increase on a 1300GW system, or 3.7%. whereas all the "electrification" programs predict doubling demand by 2030 due to electric everything. So less than half the growth rate required.
And next year Biden's 100% tariffs on EVs, solar and batteries hit.
Well, calling them "biden's tariffs" is a bit of a joke when he probably never even drooled on the order, but you know what I mean.
Edit: oh Jesus Christ they literally used nameplate capacity for solar. So multiply all the solar figures by .12, meaning all the solar built in the US will produce ~4x as much as the single nuclear plant built in that same year, and probably less than we lost from the decommissioned coal plants
Edit: after doing the math an absolutely optimal setup in the SW US might be more like .2 than .12. Germany's "energy revolution" dragged down global solar capacity factor along with their economy lol
While this error is atrocious, capacity factor of solar in the entire US is around double that, almost tripple for the sun belt.
Will be interesting how/if that changes the installation numbers. The Chinese are sitting on close to 1 TW of yearly production capacity. They'll probably lower prices, again.
I know a guy who directly imported the newest generation of 400W panels for his farm from China himself. He jokes that the panels are now cheaper than glass, cheaper than wall cladding and almost cheaper than fencing. He puts them on everything. 100% tariffs wouldn't change things much at this point.
Also, right now installation costs are dominating the price of new solar capacity anyway.
I guess the solar build out in Germany produced some worst-case capacity figures, didn't it. Is it really that good in the sun belt?
And yeah, I priced out a solar build recently and noticed concrete, posts, and especially wire would cost far more than the panels. Let alone all the charger and inverter kit.
All of Germany is north of Minneapolis and Halifax (to choose two famously cold North American cities). This doesn't matter as much as you think if you are doing utility-scale solar, because you can pitch south-facing panels to match the latitude so they face the midday sun directly. (You need more space between panels so they don't shade each other, but in the world we live in utility-scale solar is investment-limited, not land-limited.) If you are just sticking panels to roughly-south-facing pitched roofs the way most subsidised solar installs do, then it matters a lot.
The other issue is that most of the Midwest is a semi-desert, and therefore sunnier than Europe. Minneapolis gets 2711 hours of sunshine a year. Halifax, which is coastal, gets 1962. Berlin gets 1728 and Munich gets 1777.
There is a reason why the UK has more installed wind than solar, despite solar being a generally superior technology.
I did the math for my location (similar lat to Paris), and even with best seasonal angle practices you're still only getting 10% of what you would in summer (while non-industrial energy use more than doubles due to heating). Germany's significantly further north with worse weather as you say.
It hadn't really struck me that Texas and Arizona are basically as good as North Africa for solar. I should run the numbers for that and get a cap factor estimate.
Edit: fixed 31 degree angle in Phoenix AZ, you're getting a 25% base capacity factor minus probably at least 15% losses to AC delivered.
So more like 20% CF than the 36% you figured. But there's only 24% lower output in winter than summer, which is amazing compared to up north.
Of course all this excludes noon curtailment losses, which are going to be a big deal very shortly. The entire new battery capacity listed as "generation" in the doc doesn't even begin to cover for that.
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