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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 26, 2024

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China would be vastly easier to deal with

China simply isn’t a civilizational foe of the United States. I don’t care about Taiwan and neither should you. Xi Jinping does not seek to invade and subjugate the Japanese (let alone the Americans), something even most extremely online Chinese ultranationalists don’t care for. China is a distraction, and the US has - if anything - a lot to learn from the successes of Chinese civilization.

All the Chinese want to do is control their own backyard, something they will always find difficult due to the vast majority of their neighbors hating them. Their economy is fragile, and their demographic trajectory / aging population is the stuff of nightmares. The Chinese have never sought a global empire, have rarely even sought to spread their ideology.

Russia is always going to be more of a civilizational threat to Europe and European civilization than China. Not that it has to be, of course, and not that that threat is great or immediate or terrifying (it isn’t). But China is even less of an issue.

Germany never sought a global empire until it did. America never sought a global empire until it did. China has global interests due to its size and power. Power and world hegemony is seductive for anyone.

China's backyard is extremely valuable real estate: South Korea and Taiwan are vital for chipmaking. Intel is a laughing stock, knocking out Taiwan would rip out the spinal cord of the US economy. There'd be an instantaneous economic crisis in the USA, China supplies America with enormous amounts of goods. Not just cheap plastic, everything from medical precursors, machinery for ports and microelectronics for missiles comes from China. Everyone keeps going on about the fragility of the Chinese economy, I think it's the complete inverse of reality. In manufacturing they produce about as much as the US, Germany and Japan combined. They have the biggest trade surplus in the world because their economy is productive, not because it is fragile and weak.

And it's the same with demographics. The second most births in the world behind India, more than double the US birth rate? A population as large or larger than all Western civilization combined? Absolute size is what's important, not proportions.

If China wins a convincing victory in Asia, they can brain-drain the remnants of TSMC, subordinate South Korean industry and secure first place in high technology. The world would be their oyster. I agree that we have much to learn from China but their competence is precisely why they are threatening.