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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 26, 2024

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Bush's lead was already shrinking before Trump came down the escalator. He had an early lead because he started with more name recognition, but he was not a strong candidate along any dimension except that vague sense of competency that came from having done a good job in Florida, which he failed parlay into actual success on the campaign trail.

Immigration was already an issue prior to 2016. The whole reason the autopsy had happened after 2012 was because the Republicans were already tentatively on the restrictionists side of the brewing crisis and had been for a while -- pretty much the entirety of the highly restrictive current legal environment was passed by Republicans in the 90s and 2000s. Unfortunately the only Republican President to serve after those laws came into effect was an immigration booster and Obama was never going to enforce the letter or the spirit of the law, so they never worked.

Cruz came from the right wing of the party on this debate. He may not have made it the center of his campaign -- but he may well have -- without Trump, but he already had the reputation and had already made it a important plank of his platform.

Bush's lead was already shrinking before Trump came down the escalator. He had an early lead because he started with more name recognition, but he was not a strong candidate along any dimension except that vague sense of competency that came from having done a good job in Florida, which he failed parlay into actual success on the campaign trail.

Bush was a terrible candidate, but so was everyone else in the running. What Jeb had on his side was the GOP establishment, and none of his competitors in the non-Trump world had the charisma or popularity among the republican base to overcome that advantage.

Immigration was already an issue prior to 2016.

The GOP did not actually care about immigration - they made noise about it because their base cared, but whenever they were in power they did everything they could to make sure more and more illegal immigrants entered the country. The GOP's wealthy donors wanted to make sure that they could continue to drive up the price of real estate while putting downward pressure on wages. While they made noises about it, Trump was the only person to actually try and do anything about it because he wasn't beholden to those same donors.

The whole reason the autopsy had happened after 2012

Autopsy? I'm not sure what you're referring to here.

but he already had the reputation and had already made it a important plank of his platform.

Had he? Maybe I'm remembering things wrong but I don't recall Cruz talking seriously about immigration until Trump brought it up. I think in the non-Trump world Cruz just has the same positions on immigration as the GOP consensus and accepts a minor portfolio position in the stillborn Jeb! administration.