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IMO your last paragraph nails the problem, though I'd caution that the 2010-2020 GOP was built on demographic quicksand (because REDMAP was that good, and Democratic gains from '06-08 were reliant on a lot of soon to die blue dog Democrats).
What was the signature accomplishment of the Obama era GOP? Legislatively? I dunno? Shrinking the stimulus a bit? Scuttling the Iran Deal? SCOTUS killed 50 state Medicaid expansion? Meanwhile, the SCOTUS majority that voted liberal against W's signature culture war issue (same-sex marriage, and Trump's justices did the same with Bostock) was 40% Republican appointed. Why lie down and think of the courts when Republican-appointed justices turn liberal almost as quickly as Republicans can appoint them?
Dramatic shrinkage of the deficit, from almost 10% of GDP in 2010 to less than 2.5% of GDP in 2015, was the primary immediate accomplishment.
The Trump judges were coming no matter who the GOP President was after 2016. They were fruits of the Federalist Society cultivating actually philosophically conservative jurists for several generations and were chosen by advisors and movement conservatives. Whoever was formally appointing them after 2016 would be appointing the same people, or similar people.
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