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Bush's lead had disappeared by the time Trump started taking off. It was essentially an open race and, to be honest, would probably have ended up being either between Rubio and Cruz or a three way between them and Kasich, depending on if Kasich and Rubio could consolidate. However, Rubio's pro-immigration image would have turned off the people who went for Trump in real life, so I could see it easily going to Cruz.
He's a weak vessel, but we didn't know that in 2016. He could probably handle Clinton fairly easily, especially if he focused on immigration like Trump did.
I was under the impression that this was in no small part due to Trump's attacks on Jeb. Without Trump there's no differentiation among the republican candidates at all, and that means Jeb's structural advantages deliver him the nomination (so he can lose to HRC). As for Cruz, we absolutely knew he was a weak vessel in 2016 - though I'm not sure that becomes as obvious with Trump out of the picture. At the same time, I don't think Cruz would even adopt the positions he did without Trump establishing them as primary-winners first.
I hate to say it because I would prefer that it didn't matter to people, but given how politics actually work, I'm not sure that Ted Cruz has the looks to win the Presidency. Trump looks weird too, but the difference is that Trump has figured out how to own his looks and make them work for himself. Almost everything weird about Trump's looks plays into his "the blue collar man's billionaire" macho persona. His obesity, his cheap-looking spray tan, his thin hair. I don't know if Ted Cruz would have been able to pull off making his looks work in alignment with his persona.
I agree that looks matter, but I think Trump also gets to coast on past glories. He was a big deal in the past, and while his appeal didn't manage to reach me, he was apparently attractive enough to spawn a flood of erotic dreams (https://www.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-always-sex-dreams-160500781.html).
That's a good point. Trump has the advantage of having an established reputation as a lothario playboy. Cruz doesn't, although given that he's a wealthy famous politician I'm sure that if he wanted to go that route he would have no shortage of opportunities.
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Bush's lead was already shrinking before Trump came down the escalator. He had an early lead because he started with more name recognition, but he was not a strong candidate along any dimension except that vague sense of competency that came from having done a good job in Florida, which he failed parlay into actual success on the campaign trail.
Immigration was already an issue prior to 2016. The whole reason the autopsy had happened after 2012 was because the Republicans were already tentatively on the restrictionists side of the brewing crisis and had been for a while -- pretty much the entirety of the highly restrictive current legal environment was passed by Republicans in the 90s and 2000s. Unfortunately the only Republican President to serve after those laws came into effect was an immigration booster and Obama was never going to enforce the letter or the spirit of the law, so they never worked.
Cruz came from the right wing of the party on this debate. He may not have made it the center of his campaign -- but he may well have -- without Trump, but he already had the reputation and had already made it a important plank of his platform.
Bush was a terrible candidate, but so was everyone else in the running. What Jeb had on his side was the GOP establishment, and none of his competitors in the non-Trump world had the charisma or popularity among the republican base to overcome that advantage.
The GOP did not actually care about immigration - they made noise about it because their base cared, but whenever they were in power they did everything they could to make sure more and more illegal immigrants entered the country. The GOP's wealthy donors wanted to make sure that they could continue to drive up the price of real estate while putting downward pressure on wages. While they made noises about it, Trump was the only person to actually try and do anything about it because he wasn't beholden to those same donors.
Autopsy? I'm not sure what you're referring to here.
Had he? Maybe I'm remembering things wrong but I don't recall Cruz talking seriously about immigration until Trump brought it up. I think in the non-Trump world Cruz just has the same positions on immigration as the GOP consensus and accepts a minor portfolio position in the stillborn Jeb! administration.
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Bush wouldn't have focused on immigration, though, because Bush is pro-immigration (as was his brother, as was his father, as was Reagan) and would rather lose and tank the GOP for a generation with it than run against immigration.
I'm talking about Cruz.
I misread your comment (and extend my apologies). I don't think Cruz wins (He's way creepier than J.D. Vance.), but I misread the comment.
Against Clinton, that's not as much an anchor as it should be. She was the anti-charisma and had the reputation of a flaming pile of shit among the general public.
I think pretty much any Republican who could speak coherently and with even a modicum of force could have beaten her in 2016, but Republicans like Jeb or Rubio would have sparked off a base revolt, anyway, while in office. Only someone who could credibly pursue immigration restriction would have been able to please the base and those two are the exact opposite.
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