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Notes -
The Russian collapse would be an argument against an expectation of any attack from that axis. If there were a force buildup, the Ukrainians wouldn't have been running amuck virtually unopposed. Additionally, there was never any commercial imagery indication of a russian buildup in Kursk, even though such mobilizations were noted at the Kharkiv buildup a relatively short ways away.
The Ukrainians had been launching strikes into the region for some time, which means that any troops being built up for an attack were probably still well behind the lines if this theory is correct (I dunno if it is, not being privy to Ukrainian high command's thinking.) If you were to launch such an attack, you'd want to time it before any troops were placed on the border but after as many minefields and roads were cleared as possible.
There have been some open-source reporting suggesting that there might be a Russian attack from this position, although Russian activity in the area seems to have dropped off before the attack. Ukrainians were saying in July that they expected an attack from the North, and the Russians did in fact launch a raid later that month.
A Russian buildup in the Kursk region was reported earlier this spring, although it was subsequently reported that Russian activity in the Sumy area decreased.
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