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Notes -
The fix was in in 2016 too. What makes this time different?
Eight years.
Specifically, eight years of learning how to deal with Trump. In 2016, Trump played the media like a fiddle. Their exasperation and outrage only increased support for him. He was slinging mud while they were trying to coronate their queen in the most manifest destiny play since the days of Polk. Well, now they're slinging mud. Now they're pointing and laughing. It's probably not the sort of thing that would be sustainable through a contested primary... so the Democrats did away with the primary.
Furthermore: Trump already won! He defeated Joe Biden. He shot his shot, he achieved the victory he set out to achieve... but it was too early to make the difference that mattered. The only question now is whether three months is long enough for the fresh polish to wear off the Harris campaign. I won't say it's impossible! I have been wrong about Trump's chances before. Maybe I'll be wrong again. But I'm skeptical that Americans have the energy to prevail against the will of the media elites twice in a single year.
Interestingly, I think the opposite, I think Trump is still favored here. Maybe not by a lot at this stage, the switch did help, but maybe I'd give it 55-45 to Trump. By no means a sure thing, but I would rather be in Trump's position not Harris's.
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