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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   36939 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 22, 2024

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There is no VP pick Trump could have made that would not have been spun by hostile media forces as a bad choice.

The idea that the VP pick helps win the home state is largely a myth. Vance isn't going to help Trump win Ohio.

Virtually any other VP pick would have been a sign to Trump's base that he was moderating, and would have depressed turnout.

The idea that the VP pick helps win the home state is largely a myth. Vance isn't going to help Trump win Ohio.

I agree. VP picks make for great news-entertainment, but have very little effect on the overall election. Much like their actual role- their power is limited! The typical voter, especially the swing voters, vote for the pres, not "hmm there's a 2% chance that this VP will takeover so that should influence my vote a little..."

Do you have good sources showing "moderating" will lead to fewer votes, especially in swing states where votes actually matter? I buy more into Median Voter Theorem, where moderating is usually the single best move a politician can make

Richard Baris talks about this on Twitter: the vast majority of voters are not undecided, and driving turnout among partisans ends up being much more impactful than swaying the mythical moderates. (Besides, the more you activate your own partisans, the more reasonable and mainstream your ideas become, and thus inherently more "moderate".)

"Moderating" is basically an act of persuasion more than actually moving to a political center: if you frame the issue right trans kids becomes the responsible take, while tax cuts for the middle class become an extreme take.

I've heard that narrative before, I'm not totally convinced by it. I'd want to see some decently strong evidence for it before buying into it.

Especially since generally, moderates win swing states, not whoever motivates partisans the hardest. The nation as a whole is like one giant swing state in many ways.

I don't believe framing has that much power. I think voters mostly make their own decisions, propaganda has an impact but it's relatively small.

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