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Notes -
Maybe it's a manufactured event, but there's already ongoing conflict in the North of Israel. An official second front opening has been a possibility since day one of the conflict. Israeli and Hezbollah have been in a state of active, firing weapons at each other, not-war this entire year. If Bibi felt he needed additional pretext to open another front all he had to do was wait for one that looked nice and use it. How much does the Israeli government care about dead Druze children in Golan on an average day?
Perhaps we have diverging understandings over the state of relations. Do you believe Hezbollah has been attempting to deescalate and avoid conflict? That could be evidence Israeli would have a need to manufacture a crisis in whole. Have you seen them posture in a war avoidant way after October 7th? Appear ready and waiting to me. The Israeli drums for more picked up in Spring. Reports, articles, and think pieces describing a proper campaign against Hezbollah got going proper in June. It may be a false flag since everything is a gay psyop, but a chosen narrative more likely.
Unless there was some back channel diplomacy and understandings we don't know, it seems like Hezbollah committed to the solidarity for our brothers bit. Doing enough pain in the ass things to satisfy their patrons, without committing to the cost of major offensive actions. Victory they can attain is won in a defensive war, anyway. They have maintained tensions, as Israel has, have initiated aggression, and answered it. They did a strategic job of being a distraction for when it mattered. The distraction to stretch the IDF isn't important anymore, but the decision was already made. So here we are. Based on Israeli actions after October 7th, a Hezbollah strategist would have to be a great dullard to think they are doing something like deterring Israeli action rather than justifying it.
Might also true that Israel, or Hezbollah, or both considered/decided a '06 repeat was inevitable by the late date of October 8th. The early question for Israeli was to what degree Hezbollah would complicate things. If I'm an Israeli war hawk then I see a Hezbollah that has politely waited their turn whilst providing plenty of reasons to engage.
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