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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 22, 2024

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I feel it's the other way around.

It's strange to make the argument without providing the numbers. If the number of deaths is something like 1%, then that makes the argument stronger, and if it's 50%, the country is facing a demographic collapse even if it wins.

You provided a bunch of intermediate nodes without anchoring them to the particulars of the situation. The absence is conspicuous, as if the argument were deliberately structured to avoid providing the number.

What percentage do you think it is?

Not high enough to be relevant to the original argument. I believe I already said that, and your rejection of that without actually contesting the conclusion rather illustrates why the number is not necessary.

As do other aspects of your latest position. For example, this-

It's strange to make the argument without providing the numbers. If the number of deaths is something like 1%, then that makes the argument stronger, and if it's 50%, the country is facing a demographic collapse even if it wins.

Is a poorly structured argument for the value of the number in the context of the prior argument you responded to the response to.

For one, it is assuming a conclusion on how a specific number would be used. You say, for this context, that a 1% statistic makes the argument (presumably that Ukraine should continue to resist) stronger, but the same 1% could just as easily be used or presented to argued as evidence of catastrophic damage that must be ended at all costs. For just one example as to how, it is a trivial technique, in general and in the course of Ukraine War itself, to simply convert absolute numbers into %s or %s into absolute numbers to make it seem larger or smaller for the sake of argument. There is no way of knowing what you, or anyone else, would consider a 'small' or 'too big' number for the sake of an argument's strength.

The number also does not imply the distinguishing factor you imply it would. You present an argument that the number is relevant to whether Ukraine is facing a demographic collapse as a consequence of its resistance. The later does not imply the former. Ukraine can be facing a demographic collapse even if it wins regardless, regardless of whether that % is 1 or 99%, if it was already facing a demographic collapse without the war. (Ukraine, and nearly all of Europe is facing a demographic collapse, for factors that trace back to the last century.) Ukraine can also be facing a demographic collapse if it looses, independent of whether it was already facing a demographic collapse before the conflict. The % killed in conflict only matters to a demographic collapse concern if the deaths as a result of fighting are the dominant factor in what determine the demographic trajectory of the Ukrainian nation- but they are not.

This is because the % requested also doesn't matter in terms of understanding the degree of harm at a national level. You are asking for a % killed from a subset of a subset of a demographic (an age bracket of men), but while this is most heavily impacted demographic (conscription-age men), it is neither the most relevant statistic for that broader demographic category, or even the most relevant demographic for discussing the implications for Ukraine's future (the women). It's not even a particularly impactful number in the context of the demographic consquences of the Ukraine war- like the 6 million or so refugees in Europe from the war. Whether the men of your demographic range killed is ten thousand, thirty thousand, or even three hundred thousand, 300,000 is peanuts to 6,000,000.

And this is without getting into which data sets to use, which you have demurred on specifying. So the magical % number could come from highly suspect sourcing, with highly maleable categorization... for a ratio that doesn't mean much in the first place.

You provided a bunch of intermediate nodes without anchoring them to the particulars of the situation. The absence is conspicuous, as if the argument were deliberately structured to avoid providing the number.

Of course the argument was deliberately structured to avoid providing the number- that was part of the critique of the appeal to realism.

Realism is a theory of international relations, not an accounting mechanism or paradigm. It doesn't have a meaningful input factor for specific numbers. How numbers would be considered or used is bringing in other preferred systems of consideration- systems that are not realism in and of itself.

that was part of the critique of the appeal to realism.

If you're doing that approach, make that it's a critique of sticking solely to the "realist" framework clearer next time.

...

To an abstract Realist, not enough to change a position without ascribing to non-Realist values.

...

Sure it is. Neither the question or the answers are either an argument for or against a position born from Realism as an IR theory. Realism doesn't have any caveats or rules of 'if X% of your 18-35 population is killed, realism says do [policy], but if (X+1)% of your 18-35 population is killed, do [alternative policy].' The metric only serves if you bring in other models- which was the point of the critique of the appeal to Realism.