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Notes -
Chaos at the convention is what would impact the general election prospects, as the convention is where the wings of the Democratic Party come together to commit to a choice, and a chaotic convention means that there are not only winners, but losers, and losers who are angered or just unmotivated to come back to the polls on election day have- in this context- a real impact on the general election.
Biden's election prospects hinges on him outperforming his polling in multiple key battleground states, where any decline in the Democratic base turnout would be fatal. This is why the pro-Palestinian wing on the party was able to influence various aspects of Biden's policy towards the Israel-Hamas conflict, as Biden was naturally inclined/desired to be even more pro-Israel, but the pro-Palestinian wing was threatening to decrease turnout if they didn't get... well, they didn't get what they wanted, but they got concessions in the form of Biden pressing the Israelis to shape their operations.
A contested convention is that, but at a larger scale. Given that the most loyal part of Biden's democratic party base / his closest allies are the African-American wing of the party, anyone overthrowing him is also overthrowing the position his faction has in the party, and the Party mathematically can't win in as many places as it needs to without the African-American wing.
The issue is that the mainstream media doesn't control the Democratic party apparatus- the Biden-Obama wing does, and they and their allies will close institutional doors / donor venues / primary the people who broke ranks with the party, in favor of political allies and partners who didn't. We've already seen this within the Democratic Party just over the Israel-Hamas War, as the (allied to the Biden Wing) AIPAC-wing of the Democratic Party has been primarying the pro-Palestinian wing, including notable members of The Squad, who have repeatedly been oppositional to Biden and attenmpted to leverage electoral turnout as political blackmail.
You also saw this in the Republican context of the last decade. When Trump started to win, there was a substantial part of the wing, the Never-Trumpers, who were sufficiently critical of Trump to challenge, get tons of media support, and boosts in popularity. They are practically extinct, not because they aren't popular with a great many people, but because the people whose approval they sought were not the ones who mattered for maintaining a stake in the Republican Party political machine.
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