This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the american system, but rebelling at the convention does not actually directly impact Biden's chances at the general election, right? At most indirectly since it makes the democrats look chaotic.
But the popular impression & even the mainstream media is sufficiently critical of Biden at this point that I think there is a good chance that if someone already sympathetic challenges Biden, and Biden wins the convention anyway, but then proceeds to lose the general election, that person will get a large boost in popularity and media pieces about "if only so-and-so had won the convention, everything would have been different". It might even be better for the person than winning the convention outright, since no potential democratic nominee has a >50% chance of beating trump. Better make a good impression now and then fight against someone else in the next election.
Chaos at the convention is what would impact the general election prospects, as the convention is where the wings of the Democratic Party come together to commit to a choice, and a chaotic convention means that there are not only winners, but losers, and losers who are angered or just unmotivated to come back to the polls on election day have- in this context- a real impact on the general election.
Biden's election prospects hinges on him outperforming his polling in multiple key battleground states, where any decline in the Democratic base turnout would be fatal. This is why the pro-Palestinian wing on the party was able to influence various aspects of Biden's policy towards the Israel-Hamas conflict, as Biden was naturally inclined/desired to be even more pro-Israel, but the pro-Palestinian wing was threatening to decrease turnout if they didn't get... well, they didn't get what they wanted, but they got concessions in the form of Biden pressing the Israelis to shape their operations.
A contested convention is that, but at a larger scale. Given that the most loyal part of Biden's democratic party base / his closest allies are the African-American wing of the party, anyone overthrowing him is also overthrowing the position his faction has in the party, and the Party mathematically can't win in as many places as it needs to without the African-American wing.
The issue is that the mainstream media doesn't control the Democratic party apparatus- the Biden-Obama wing does, and they and their allies will close institutional doors / donor venues / primary the people who broke ranks with the party, in favor of political allies and partners who didn't. We've already seen this within the Democratic Party just over the Israel-Hamas War, as the (allied to the Biden Wing) AIPAC-wing of the Democratic Party has been primarying the pro-Palestinian wing, including notable members of The Squad, who have repeatedly been oppositional to Biden and attenmpted to leverage electoral turnout as political blackmail.
You also saw this in the Republican context of the last decade. When Trump started to win, there was a substantial part of the wing, the Never-Trumpers, who were sufficiently critical of Trump to challenge, get tons of media support, and boosts in popularity. They are practically extinct, not because they aren't popular with a great many people, but because the people whose approval they sought were not the ones who mattered for maintaining a stake in the Republican Party political machine.
More options
Context Copy link
No direct impact, sure, but if some higher-ups in the party wanted a non-Biden scapegoat to punish then a convention challenger would be the obvious choice.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link