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Notes -
2020 is when net migration tripled, due to policies put in place by Boris Johnson and continued by Rishi Sunak. Conservative voters feel betrayed, so they are voting for the low-immigration Reform party instead. If you combine the vote shares of those two parties, you get around 37%, which isn't far off what Labour is getting.
Conservative popularity was declining before Johnson reinvigorated it with his charisma. But when right-wing voters discovered that he was just an open-borders extremist with a blue rosette, they turned against him.
Combine that with damage to the traditional image of competence that the party benefits from due to a failing health system, high inflation and poor economic growth, and voters don't really have any reason to vote Conservative. After all, we already had crazy-high immigration, reckless money-printing, economic stagnation and activists wokeifying institutions during a decade of Conservative government. What's the worst a Labour government could do?
This election is best understood as the Conservatives losing, rather than Labour winning.
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