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I found this analysis lines up pretty closely with my thinking about debates, from a pollster who does "dial testing" where voters instantly react to things throughout the debate. His claim: it's usually not about the one-liners and what the media hypes. For example, a lot of people didn't notice Bush Sr. check his watch, or care; Trump's first Biden debate performance where he interrupted a lot played very very poorly with women voters; Trump's "because she'd be in jail" against Hillary was actually loved by a lot of viewers. Just to pick a few examples he listed about how the classic "big moments" analysis is often wrong or misguided by popular media.
I'd say in terms of debate performances from Trump, 2016 > 2024 > 2020, but we've only seen one debate of two so that might still change. I'd peg a Biden victory in the 25-40% range, currently. Not impossible, but not the kind of numbers we usually see in presidential races where it's normally 40-60% in the last 30 years or so.
Yeah, I agree with that article. Anyone who knows anything about politics knows that debates as they ought to be (the issues) are a farce. They're just two simultaneous press conferences, and voters care about amorphous "vibes" more than anything. Nobody can really predict what the definitive vibes will be even shortly after the debate, and in the end they usually don't matter much anyways (e.g. Romney's first debate in 2012).
For Trump's debate performances, I generally agree but will add nuance that I think 2016 > second debate 2020 > 2024 > first debate 2020. The second (non cancelled) presidential debate of 2020 Trump did... fine? I can't remember much about it. At least he didn't blatantly shoot himself in the foot like he did in the first one.
For current odds of Biden's victory, I peg it at around 25% now, with a 15% chance the Dems switch candidates and win, and a 60% chance that Trump wins.
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