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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   1098 thread views

Transnational Thursday for June 20, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I suppose 2a contains multiple possibilities, I was thinking more like “nobody gets nuked, Russia just signs guarantees with China/DPRK”. In 2a, if Russia threatens America into abandoning Taiwan and possibly SK, the PRC controls those new territories, and expands its influence in the South Pacific. But the US and allies aren’t necessarily going to abandon the regions that Russia cares more about at all. It depends on whether losing Taiwan actually causes a true crisis for American identity, and my feeling is it doesn’t. Most Americans don’t care, and a sizeable faction in the security state has been preparing to lose Taiwan since the 1970s; only TSMC temporarily complicated things.

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