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I agree that technology - particularly information technology - plays an important role in setting the rebellion equation. In particular, technology plays a big part in setting the amount of revolutionary energy bouncing around a society. However, I wouldn't go so far to say that it's entirely, or even mostly dispositive. In the language of my original question to you, another variable is the strength of the cork keeping that rebellion energy in the metaphorical bottle.
To expand on this, I think that the factors playing into that equation have to include, at a minimum:
I'm pretty sure that each of these factors can be manipulated semi-independently, and that each of them has a significant impact on the likelihood and character of rebellion. Clearly, advances in techological progress of a society do not monotonically increase the likelihood or seriousness of rebellions; there are clear population-level trends in the ethnic, religious, and regional character of contemporary violence that put paid to that theory.
This reply nerd sniped me a bit, but I'll try to push through.
I think the list you gave is accurate, as far as it goes; my criticism would be that it risks getting lost in the details, given that many of the variables don't seem terribly variable, in addition to being difficult to quantify or measure.
1 - ???
2 - I assume that coordination is highly restricted, to the point of stochastic impossibility. This will not change.
3 - I assume that very few to no individuals or small groups are willing to risk adverse consequences. This will not change.
4 - I assume that things are getting observably worse, but gradually. This will not change.
5 - ???
6 - I assume that society is hard, but somewhat fragile. Society has vast capacity for coordinating meanness against the outgroup, but is rife with internal contradictions and corruption that impose a constant drag on productivity and coordination. This will not change.
7 - I assume society is extremely willing to punish rebels. This will not change.
8 - Society is not very competent. It muddles through well-enough on well-defined and familiar problems, but it handles novel, adversarial, and blind-spot problems quite poorly and with a lot of wastage. Like an elder suffering from the onset of dementia, it thrives on routine. This will not change.
9 - Society is not responsive at all to demands of the public. That is to say, to the extent that a public has demands that fall outside the established social consensus, Society ignores or suppresses them. This will not change.
Having left aside points 1 and 5 for the moment, do my assessments of the other seven factors seem accurate to you?
Sorry, it seemed like an interesting discussion :( happy to move it to the new thread if you like!
I mean, my opinion is worth the wind it takes to express it, so ymmv. But no, I don't think your assessments are accurate.
The capacity of individuals to spread ideas, recognize fellow-travelers, and recruit does change drastically in terms of communications technology (the printing press, mass literacy, radio, TV, cellphones, the internet, etc.), technologies of physical movement (railroads, macadamized roads/highways, mass-produced automobiles, cheap commercial air travel), and historical contingency (war mobilizations, migrations, etc.)
I would think it's obvious that the opportunity cost of being willing to do something stupid and potentially dangerous goes up and down with circumstance - particularly how angry the population is, the change in motivating ideologies over time, the alternatives available (e.g. youth unemployment rates), etc.
As to the rate of change, Lenin was correct - "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."
Societies vary wildly in their ability to identify dissidents, let alone coordinate meanness against them. Some societies have the Stasi, others don't. Some have cameras everywhere, others don't. Some use cash, others are all-digital.
Some societies are much harsher against rebels than others; Tsarist Russia, for example, was shockingly lenient, and so is the modern US at least with regard to far-leftist causes in Blue jurisdictions. Makes the success of the Bolshevik revolution a lot less surprising in retrospect.
etc, etc.
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