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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   993 thread views

Transnational Thursday for May 30, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Ukraine

US officials are allowing Ukraine to use American weapons in limited (depending on your point of view) strikes on Russian soil, following the example of France. Macron is also reportedly considering sending military advisors (though I'd be surprised if they didn't have boots on the ground already), and his statements in recent months make it seem as though he is willing to condone quite extreme levels of escalation if the Ukrainian position continues to deteriorate, up to and including a repeat of Borodino on the Dnieper.

Mexico

I have just found out that Mexico is having a presidential election this weekend and that the candidate favored to win is a Jewish woman with an engineering PhD expected to continue the left-wing populist policies of the current president AMLO. As you can infer, I don't hear much about Mexico these days, so I assume they're mostly muddling along as they always have. In any case, it's always interesting to see the diversity of political candidates and leaders in Latin America, whether it's Arab strongmen who clean up the streets, a corrupt Japanese political dynasty, Chainsaw Man, or Croatian socialists.

Ukraine

I don't know how deliberate this is (probably not very, just a natural consequence of doing as little as possible to keep Ukraine alive), but it looks like the plan is to keep Russia busy as long as possible, to keep Putin thinking that victory is just around the corner, he just has to endure a dozen more attacks on oil refineries, maybe shoot down a few F-16s, power through another round of sanctions, maybe conduct another mobilization and then he'll be in Kiev by Christmas. The plan is definitely not about helping Ukraine regain its territory quickly and decisively.

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