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Culture War Roundup for the week of May 27, 2024

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One of the more "hopeful" things I've seen is videos of Hamas fighters beating and shooting Gazans. Which is horrible. But it implies that Gazan support for Hamas might not be as great as we out here think. From a certain point of view, asking Gazans whether they support Hamas and hate Israel is like asking people in Soviet Russia whether they support the Communist Party and hate capitalism. We know that journalists in Gaza had to toe the Hamas party line; that surely applies to residents as well. We have no idea how much is informed belief, how much is brainwashing, and how much is an outright lie to avoid being killed by their own government.

It's probably too much to hope that Gazans don't hate Israel by this point, but maybe if Hamas is fatally weakened (somehow), and then if Israel stops killing so many of them, then maybe enough Gazans would choose to try something different in the future. I wouldn't bet on this happening, but it doesn't seem as impossible as most paths to peace. (Or at least, most paths that don't involve genocide or ethnic cleansing.)

On what grounds do the Gazans hate Hamas? If it's a twenty Stalins sort of thing where they hate Hamas because Hamas hasn't been able to kill enough Jews, that a kind of hate still doesn't leave much room for hope.

Abstractly, there are plenty of grounds for Gazans to hate Hamas.

In practice, there are quotes from exceptionally brave dissidents, and people who have escaped. That's only a small number of people, though, and it's hard to tell how representative they are. Which is why the videos are useful, because they demonstrate that Hamas is being brutal toward Gazans, and in general I'd expect that type of brutality to make Gazans hate Hamas more than in a counterfactual world where Hamas treated Gazans better.

"They're being brutal towards us instead of the Jews" isn't hopeful either.

The problem is that "Gazans don't like Hamas" doesn't mean "Gazans would be peaceful without Hamas".

I have a bit of hope, which I don't expect most other people to share, because I think these sorts of events can snap people out of their otherwise-fixed mindsets. It can be shocking to find out that people you believed and trusted turn out to be lying monsters, and likewise when people that you hated and feared turn out to be completely normal.

It's kinda why I'm here.