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NATO is just an arbitrary line you are drawing right now because it excludes Ukraine. The rest you are just asking questions.
I can just as easily say would you risks nuclear war over Estonia. Population 1.3 million? That’s stupid to cause millions to die in nuclear war.
There is of course no obvious line for brinkmanship.
You pick NATO. I point to The Budapest Memorandum. So yes we have treaty obligations with Ukraine.
Ukraine of course is white. Which does count for something in US discourse.
Ukraine also has strategic reasons it’s easier to defend than waiting for the brinkmanship to occur somewhere else.
The larger population means they have more meat to throw at the problem. Drawing the line at Ukraine would mean that the next line is probably something like the Baltics. Where you would need to put German and American soldiers at risks versus Ukrainians. And if you let Russia have Ukraine then you enlarge their army as Ukrainian meat becomes Russian meat to build their army.
So yes Ukraine has a lot of strategic reasons to pick Ukraine for brinkmanship versus waiting.
My opinion is that yes Ukraine is the right place to fight Russia. Russia would take all of Europe if they could. History tells us that.
My big issue is you act like these things are obvious. But they are not obvious. And if we let Ukraine fall in 2022 there is a strong chance a test in the Baltics would come. And my guess when that day comes you would make the same argument. Russia wants the Baltics more and we should have never let them into NATO.
Maybe we should take a step back. What, exactly, is your position?
Do you want U.S. boots on the ground in Ukraine? That's what I am calling "insane".
For myself, I've been extremely consistent in calling for a negotiated peace with Russia. In exchange for peace, I am willing to concede to Russia the territory they have already captured.
What downsides are you willing to accept? What personal sacrifices are you willing to make? Would you die for Ukraine? Sorry for asking so many questions, but your position seems so vague I can't argue against or for it.
Strawman. Russia isn’t offering peace for the territory they have already captured.
You either need to surrender likely all of Ukraine and hope Russia doesn’t want more or you need to escalate to deescalate.
To do that you need better weapons for Ukraine. Allowing strikes on military targets in Russia (staging grounds etc). Potentially formalizing western advisers and logistics. I would consider Polish/French troops in defensive operations. Both have shown some willingness.
I think those steps are necessary to minimize an exchange of nuclear weapons. It asserts the borders don’t change rules of the post-war era. Which limits nations like Estonia, Taiwan, Poland, Saudis, even Iran from going nuclear.
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