Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
It looks to me like about 50-50 in terms of where lost conservative support has flowed to. Reform was ~0 and is now 10% and the total loss of Conservative vote share is about 20pts.
I suspect a lot of voters are cross pressured working class whites outside of London: they are culturally conservative, but like the Labour welfare state and are generally low information. So depending on the issues, their support is a toss up. It sounds like in the UK the narrative is the conservatives are just lurching from failure to failure (like the Liberals in Canada) so that motivates defection. To have half of those defect to the “far right” seems material. And with Brexit no longer the animating issue, for those switchers it has to be migration.
Maybe it’s true that migration is only the issue for a small share of the population, but it’s a pretty big share of the conservative base.
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