Blueberry
1d ago
Silvers main point is if voters punish “their” party (by not voting, or voting third party), even if it means the enemy gets into power. He thinks yes, because that is how he felt:
Turning back to national politics, there are two times when I’ve felt betrayed by the Indigo Blob, my term for the unofficial alliance between the Democratic Party and the progressive expert class. If you’ve been reading me for a while, you can probably identify them because they’re the two huge fights I’ve had with the left in the past several years. One was with COVID stuff. When the pandemic began, I was one of those people who was like “Welp, we ought to just trust the experts here!”. Many of those experts did a great job under impossible circumstances. But I felt betrayed by a minority who were clearly using the pandemic to advance their political agendas: their utter hypocrisy in endorsing the George Floyd protests after having spent weeks telling everyone to stay home, for instance.4 And then they did profound harm with prolonged school closures.
Then there was Biden’s decision to run again. I thought this actually did present an existential risk because of an 86-year-old president’s questionable decision-making abilities in a crisis. At some point, it even became farcical, with Biden referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “President Putin” in a press conference meant to reassure the nation about his cognitive fitness. You’d get yelled at by a certain type of Democrat if you didn’t play along and pretend that this was normal.
After the June debate, I was willing to put my foot down; I would have voted third-party5 if Biden had remained on the ballot. Maybe this was intended to “teach the Democratic Party a lesson.” Or maybe it was an emotional reaction more analogous to revenge. But either way, being coerced into voting for a man who clearly wasn’t fit for another four years: sorry, that’s where I was going to tap out.
Other voters may feel betrayed by the Democratic Party for other reasons, particularly too much wokeness, too much immigration, and too much spending. In 2019, Harris ran far to her left. Although many pundits claim that Harris pivoted to the center this year, she was making mostly empty gestures. She backed down from many of her 2019 positions without providing any rationale or proposing much in the way of substantive policies to replace them, or doing anything to offend the various “groups” and nonprofits that dominate the Democratic Party’s policy-making infrastructure. And faced with a decision that did have real consequences — her choice of a running mate — Harris went with what the progressive wing wanted instead of the moderates.
Isn’t Trump also hypocritical and prone toward promising lots of things he can’t deliver? Sure, but his promises are also more tangible: less immigration, less crime, less inflation and most importantly, owning the libs and thumbing his finger in the nose of the establishment through the mere fact of his election.
Blueberry
1d ago
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-humber-66945566
Quite a story! Convicted murderer Gallant was out of prison on license for the first time, when the attack occurred and he battled down the terrorist. Talk about having a really unlucky and lucky day!
Blueberry
1d ago
Charles Kushner, the father of Jared, wanted revenge on his brother in law, so he paid a prostitute to have sex and record the encounter, and then he sent the video to his sister:
He was pardoned by Trump four years ago and was now nominated as ambassador.
Blueberry
15d ago
You need a drivers test as proof that you know how to drive a car. The test for understanding medications is being a physician.
Blueberry
18d ago
Here is a compilation video of them:
Interesting, I think this is an Anglo thing? In the US Asian Indians are the top earning ethnicity, even wealthier than jewish ethnicity, and many tech CEO/managers are Indian. And in the UK the Tories get the Hindu vote, because they are richer than Muslim Pakistanis, and Rishi Sunak (who is upper class himself) was Prime Minister. Doesn’t this give social status? In Central Europe I think the stereotype is mildly positive/exotic, but there are not many Indians around.
Blueberry
19d ago
Wiki says this was the sect of her mother/parents:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_of_Identity_Foundation
Butler's teachings included condemnation of homosexuality,[1][3] hostility towards Islam, and skepticism of science.[2][10][2][11][12][13]
Blueberry
19d ago
Her brief stint as a Democrat is a bit odd
She was 20 years a Dem? She was 21 when she was voted into the Hawaii House of Representatives as a Democrat.
Blueberry
20d ago
Interesting.
So yes, Rubio is the senate's most important China hawk. He also has a hawkish record on both Iran and Russia. ...But he also has given speeches on the failures of globalization, and the need for a new international economic order. If I had to wager which of those things Trump cares most about.... I would choose the last item.
Blueberry
20d ago
I have never seen an efficiency or anti-bureaucracy agency having much influence. They are politically sidelined and no one cares too much about waste of a few millions here and there, when the government budget is trillions.
Firing hundred thousands of government workers are also a no go, because of its effect on the economy and midterms and the media reporting extra hard on any adverse effects it will cause.
My bet is DOGE won’t closing the budget deficit and after a few month Elon Musk will get bored/frustrated and leave.
Blueberry
20d ago
Secretary of State is one position that really does benefit from having career politician in it. The politics of diplomacy is wild. Some say Rubio is a foreign policy wonk, so maybe simply that was it?
The right-wing conspiracy theory is that it will allow DeSantis to appoint a lightweight and run himself for Senate. He is term limited. And it Rubio could run for Florida Governor.
Blueberry
26d ago
In the replies there is some interesting info on the French whale:
https://x.com/mbateman/status/1854278584338436386
https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d
He hired a major pollster to ask people who their neighbors is voting for. The idea is that people might not reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly do that when asked to guess their neighbors preferences. The results were "mind blowing in favor of Trump". And with this info he bet $30 million on Polymarket.
Blueberry
26d ago
Just hearing this month old banger:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=3BrCvZmSnKA
Was there now proof that they were eating the pets of people that live in Ohio?
Blueberry
26d ago
Biden congratulated Trump and invited him to the White House:
This happened hours before Kamala Harris concession speech. Which is starting right now in this second:
Blueberry
27d ago
Yes. And Elon only has experience with high margin companies, or at least potentially high margins, and for which people want desperately to work with and are ok to burnout for, eg because they are a cool entry on the CV and stepping stone for a better job down the line, but I have less confidence he could turn around a boring company in a boring established industry, were people just want to have save job and retire in 20 years. And I am very sceptical he could reform a government bureaucracy.
Blueberry
27d ago
What is the criticism of Silver? A few weeks/month ago when he said Trump was leading the liberals on X accused him of being a Thiel shill. But somehow the right also dislikes him?
What I got from reading the occasional tweet by him was complaining about "herding" and the polls showing the election as really close, but this is suspicious and probably means the polls are garbage.
Edit: Oh I see a bit of pushback which is discussed downthread.
Blueberry
27d ago
Apparently Florida posts almost real-time data about who voted.
Why is Florida so efficient at counting votes? What do they actually do differently?
Blueberry
27d ago
People often have a glowup after high school, Nate Silver had to wait until midlife crisis! He looks so much better with a beard and losing the dorky nerd style!
Blueberry
27d ago
never come down
Regardless of politics I think this song was pure meme magic. The band (Brave Shores) hated that their song was taken and how hard it slapped.
But who would have thought that in 2024 Pets lives matter?
Blueberry
27d ago
Today I learned that the Constitution does not explicitly require the speaker to be an incumbent member of the House of Representatives, although every speaker thus far has been.
Blueberry
28d ago
Btw: Many countries ban polling before an election:
I think it is effective immediately. The above quote is from the DOD about a past pardon.
https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Presidential-Pardon-Resources/
And Bidens pardon of Hunter (up to and including 1.Dec) was signed and released on 1.Dec:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/12/01/statement-from-president-joe-biden-11/
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