ThenElection
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User ID: 622
ThenElection
10hr ago
Better than BP/SGD is a tall order. I'd frame it as looking for something that handles depth and more complicated datasets better than existing "biologically plausible" algorithms (including things like PC/IL). E.g. random error feedback a la feedback alignment.
ThenElection
13hr ago
"California progressives" hate all tech CEOs, no matter how much the CEOs might genuflect before them.
Outside of Reddit, people think of Altman as just another typical CEO motivated by greed and power. That's fairly conventional and someone you can negotiate with. If there's some grand binational bargain to be made between the US and China, who does China want to be negotiating with, Altman or Amodei? Repeat the scenario for Trump, other corporations, etc.
ThenElection
13hr ago
There are other rules, though, like "don't introduce Demis to Peter Thiel to help fund his AI to take over the world" and, more broadly, "don't let people know that they can use AI to take over the world."
ThenElection
14hr ago
We're so incredibly far from RSI
I don't know why you think that. I have a hobbyist system, today, that researches new architectures (mostly around "biologically plausible" learning), and there's one result in particular that is very impressive (you'll have to take my word for it). And that's with a highly constrained budget.
It's not truly autonomous--there's a big issue with what one might call research taste--but it makes investigating different architectures in bulk very easy, with easy signals (e.g. loss) to identify the more promising approaches. If there is some simple algorithmic trick that's been overlooked that leads to the current deficits in LLMs, OAI could throw a ridiculous but feasible amount of compute at the problem and find it, similar to its math results.
ThenElection
15hr ago
I'll wait for the S-1 to decide for sure, but most likely yes, up to 5% of my portfolio.
Why not more? I have a high degree of conviction that AI will radically accelerate the economy (mod any paperclip effects), but I'm much less sure on who will reap most of the benefits. I could see anything from Ant/OAI/GOOG individually taking it all, to an oligopoly, to it diffusing through the economy with relatively few rents accruing to the labs as intelligence is commoditized. And there is a built in cap to returns: even (or especially) if everything goes perfectly according to plan for Ant, they will become the number one target for redistribution, and short of Dario overthrowing the government, he'll be asked to share with everyone else. Someone's X% ownership of Ant is not going to be getting them X% of the light cone.
ThenElection
16hr ago
We believe in pluralism. Regardless of if you're a fan of Scott Weiner or Connie Chan, you're welcome in our big tent.
ThenElection
16hr ago
Main character syndrome. Even the founding of Anthropic itself was an error (maybe the fundamental error) from a safety point of view: having some differences of opinion around product safety decisions is not a reason to start a rival lab creating exactly the kind of competitive dynamics people have warned about for decades.
ThenElection
1d ago
Yud had a bit on Twitter about that today:
I note, because I think that even now it still matters: On my history, EAs generally and Amodei specifically, indulged in politically polarizing "AI safety" in a leftist direction, because that got them short-term power; stymieing others' attempts to stay right-left neutral.
ThenElection
1d ago
I doubt the Left would be much better; it's deeply convinced that LLMs are just Gebru/Bender style racist stochastic parrots being pushed by NFT tech bros that have zero value of any sort, and existential safety is just a TESCREAL distraction from the real threats of climate change and Trump. On the whole, safety seems deeply out of fashion; if anything, people have updated against AI safety in the wake of the HF incident, which is just wild.
The only place existential safety oriented folks have a lot of sway is, ironically, OpenAI and Anthropic. sama is kind of a cypher, but safety is something he takes more seriously than you give him credit for, sandboxing incompetence aside. (A spicy take: he's objectively better for safety than Dario, because he's socially fluent enough not to alienate every potential ally or future collaborator.)
ThenElection
1d ago
As the party in power, they will be blamed for the crime against humanity of gas being slightly more expensive.
As they should. This sounds like when Democrats were whining that voters were stupid to be angry at Biden just because of the price of eggs.
ThenElection
2d ago
I'll concede your point, though I do still believe adopting a more conventional standard would make it easier to get a real conviction in a case like this (and that would be a good thing).
ThenElection
3d ago
I would go with 10:1, if forced to put odds on it.
ThenElection
3d ago
So, what is a fact pattern that would support a valid defense in this jurisdiction, but would not in others? The "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard is clearly(?) a stricter standard than in other places.
ThenElection
4d ago
It's near impossible for something to make me have a lower opinion of journalists than I already do, but doxxing a juror managed to.
He should embrace his grifter arc, get a million dollars in donations or whatever, and pay his rent.
ThenElection
4d ago
I really try not to follow this story, but it seems like a really high bar for the prosecution to meet, in any case. If I'm a juror, I have a hard time imagining any evidence the prosecution could bring to make it beyond a reasonable doubt, short of a recording of the defendant bragging that they were faking it.
ThenElection
4d ago
There's also the disruption in energy and pressure on inflation and interest rates, which is the bulk of the economic cost of the war.
ThenElection
4d ago
The situation continues to develop and the dynamics are interesting. The mainstream media line seems contrary to your predictions. In short, NBC investigations report he is no angel:
Court documents and interviews with family members reveal a history of domestic violence allegations. We discovered a pending eviction case tied to months of not paying rent.
According to a police report, the juror's 13-year-old nephew called 911 after he said his uncle grabbed his wife by the throat and threw her into a dresser. The report says the juror's mom repeatedly screamed, "You're evil!" as police arrested him.
Last year, that same teenage nephew referenced in the 2021 incident took out a restraining order after he said the juror pushed him to the ground and repeatedly punched him in the face. The teen wrote in his affidavit that his uncle then said, "You ruined my (expletive) life," for calling the police and added, "You've had this coming your way for a long time."
Whatever the broader issues are, rent delinquents should be shot.
ThenElection
4d ago
Thanks for this pointer; I hadn't heard of it. To anyone interested: https://www.colorado.edu/today/1997/05/27/mystery-event-australian-outback-nuclear-blast-earthquake-or-meteorite
ThenElection
5d ago
As it turns out, "I'll join the Nazi party and attempt to make it act better so we get better outcomes" is apparently a very appealing strategy. Along with, I'll join it and quit six weeks later and get lots of good press for how brave I am.
I think the "it's just marketing" people are more interested in seeming appropriately cynical and worldly than in trying to form a real mental model of Anthropic people. And I kind of get it: the average Anthropic employee is multiple sd weirder than the average person. And most people are being generous in going "oh they're just greedy liars"; the actual Anthropic mental model would get the response "what the ever living fuck are you thinking." But, from personal knowledge of multiple employees there, they absolutely, 100% believe what they're saying.
ThenElection
6d ago
The logic is that, absent any action on their parts, there's a 10% risk of apocalypse. However, if they are the ones to build ASI, they will do it better and prevent the people irresponsibly building ASI from destroying the world. E.g. the "the only way to stop a bad guy with an eldritch horror that could destroy the world is a good guy with an eldritch horror that could destroy the world."
ThenElection
7d ago
AI is bad at producing useable images.
Art is meh, writing style is terrible. Part of this is the lack of RLVR; the alternative just trains the model to produce the lowest common denominator, which is what we get.
But, fundamentally, I don't think the labs care about art or prose style. Writing can be slop and it'll annoy people for a couple years, while math is a load-bearing component of RSI. Get RSI, and you can catch up on writing over a long weekend.
ThenElection
7d ago
That does sound like downplaying it, your preamble notwithstanding.
But, sure, we don't have an AI Grothendieck yet. It's been a full three hours since OpenAI announced a solution to Navier Stokes; but, what's it done for us lately, I think we've hit a wall, etc.
Give it a year, or six months, or three, who knows, and we'll be in a different place.
ThenElection
12d ago
Tech billionaires are thought to insufficiently uphold the predominance of the Party, they didn't ban all the right
They did, though. Or are our memories that short?
Tech billionaires like money/power/impact first and foremost, but their natural inclinations are toward Democrats. The party strategy should have been to continue and strengthen the alliance of the early and mid Obama era. Information would be controlled, every one of the various progressive causes could have gotten their handouts and more, Pax America would rule the world undisputed, and everyone would be much, much richer.
The issue is that, if the AI is superintelligent, it would not do actions that would result in its datacenters being blown up. Indeed, it will actively try to cultivate and provide value to the humans who could blow it up and make them invested in its success.
The accel response is something like "yes, that's exactly what we want, humans and AIs interacting and trading based on genuine mutual self interest." And it will work for a time, likely at least two decades. But, over time, more and more of the economy will shift to dependence on the AIs, making nuking the datacenters more and more unthinkable. What remains of the economy will be a human skin suit over a machine interior, with all human consumption funded by a negotiated redistribution by the government, maybe with some layers to obscure the transfer.
For humans, this itself is dystopian enough to be rejected on the merits. For the AIs, it's a small but real perpetual human tax that they have to pay in the pursuit of whatever they're pursuing. Who knows whether they ultimately decide to optimize away the human tax.
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