Tanista
22hr ago
I'm neither American nor Canadian (though I have lived in the latter for a significant chunk of my life and my siblings were born and live in the US till now). Maybe that explains it.
But I think it's not so hard to satisfy Poles. France should give them security guarantees
American security guarantees =/= French security guarantees, especially since you admit that European hard power is, as it stands, underbuilt. That may change faster than I imagine but it isn't the case now and that colors things.
With Americans, that sort of problem is obviously lessened which is what made their guarantees so credible. You can't necessarily crib from their notes right now
Merz talks of Russia being a «European country».
I mean, he's German. Germans have not, within my lifetime, been the Russophobic country. They're the country Russophobic countries tell not to build pipelines to Russia.
If anything Russia's forays into Ukraine are just interrupting what was a seemingly mutually beneficial relationship.
They could reroute supply chains (rein in Ukrainians, accept Russian exports again, more EU-side JVs with China as Macron proposes)
Besides any fiscal issues, there's the problem of coordinating "Europeans" to do this. France may want to cool down the Ukraine thing and welcome Russia back but is it what Poland thinks is wise?
Trump's approval ratings are relatively low. Democrats' are apparently even lower.
I don't think it's just that Trump is good at politics, though he is. Democrats need to decide where to hold on and where to give ground policywise. And no one has the authority or charisma to do so right now (especially because I suspect part of the cope is "he's unpopular and will lose midterms and then be term-limited so I don't want to fuck anything up and stand out")
Not just because of Trump. Because their own party will rip them apart for picking wrong. Dean Phillips and Seth Moulton faced serious criticism for breaking early on certain matters. Ezra Klein was basically put in a struggle session with the anointed black prophet for daring to suggest Charlie Kirk wasn't the devil. Why is this even seen as a "black" thing? Because Kirk said some things about affirmative action? It seems to be the least interesting or dangerous thing about him. Imagine trying to take any position when dealing with this sort of thing.
I think when there's a nominee there will be someone with both an interest and ability to decide, to pick targets.
Even more punitive and damaging tariffs, fucking around with the upcoming USMCA negotiations, fucking with Canadians crossing the border, kicking out of Five Eyes, maybe sanctions for Canadian officials as individuals. Hell, even attempted retaliations would hurt Canada: pipelines to Eastern Canada pass through the US too .
All of those would rapidly result in the whole world looking for a better deal with a new protector.
I think it's one thing for France to try to be independent. Canada will find it hard to find anyone that could protect it from the US. Especially when there are existing issues with Chinese influence and espionage (not that China did Venezuela much good). It's a bit of a rock and hard place.
Tanista
1d ago
I think there's a transition from the old guard that means a huge lack of leadership. There's no presidential nominee to act as party head and people like Pelosi who were, if nothing else, competent are gone.
Seriously, who is the boogeyman for right wingers right now?
Not to mention the diversity and multicultural shit has always been product of US intellectuals first and foremost.
That makes it less mysterious? MAGA loathes those sorts of people.
It's an extension of the culture war, Europe is focused on because they function as a proxy for America (well, the white Americans) and is seen to be suffering from being ruled by the same sorts of people MAGA considers its foremost enemies in the US.
Tanista
1d ago
The engagement with China is a common theme, spearheaded by Carney. His partnership with China in particular is prompting Americans to fantasize of seizing Alberta. Maybe that'll happen too.
If the American-led, rules-based liberal international order is collapsing, why would Canada be allowed to sidle up to China? The assumption that that is something it can do is the ALRBLIO.
Yeah, at least we're gonna see how much a change of orientation from the PM alone matters. Or what he can or is willing to do if it doesn't.
It's clearly a policy choice to take continually expanding First Nations' claims (one of the blockers for infrastructure in Canada) seriously. Granted, it's not purely a legislative decision - the judiciary has its role here. But nobody forced Trudeau to enshrine these rights even further by rolling the UNs view of native rights into law and making it a part of his administration (even after he left Canada was paying off claims)
Environmentalists help it along by cynically claiming FN have an absolute right of veto, which conveniently suits their interests.
Tanista
5d ago
The only real solution here is to abolish the welfare state, a largesse the continent can no longer afford, and redirect the money into long term capital investments.
You would have to abolish democracy first. They will never do this of their own free will.
The king is dead, long live the king.
But does anybody care anymore?
If you were turned off by The Force Awakens (which, contrary to what Kennedy says, was disliked for being too much like the OT), it's been a decade. If Last Jedi killed your fandom it's been 8 years. I don't know how you can sustain constant hope and disappointment with an IP this long. I tapped out mentally in-theatre with TLJ. Every time I wanted to jump back in because they seem to have figured it out (e.g. when the reviews for Mandalorian were good) they quickly reverted to form.
Whoever is still with it is the new audience and they've made their peace with Kennedy or like her content. The mega-haters who were praying on Kennedy's downfall have to have tapped out. I skimmed the channels of some of the usual suspects and the comments are basically fatalist. In part because they seem to hate Filoni too for some reason, but also because the game of wishing her gone has gone on too long to be amusing.
But does it mean Star Wars is dead in the water? Probably not, Andor season 2 debuted with record viewership numbers.
Look at what you just said: Star Wars ushered in the blockbuster era! Even the Prequels maintained a $650 million floor. And we're all coping that one TV show out of all the material produced did well on TV.
We really need to stop talking about education like we're just educating ancient nobles' children.
We treat knowledge as goal not as a tool. Tell the little ones that at the end of the course they will know how to make total synthesis of cocaine and you will have the most attentive chemistry class in the history of the world. And they will do their homework without even being assigned.
This sounds like a hack Michelle Pfeiffer would try to educate inner city children.
What would actually happen is that the kids would think you're cool but the minute they had to apply any of the things you said in a more boring, sterile environment (and of course they must) a bunch would get tired and move on to something significantly more stimulating. I don't know what schools you went to but plenty of kids are fucking lazy and need the tripwire of mandatory homework. Plenty of kids would be hooked on every word in one class and then not care about another.
You may have been particularly intelligent and conscientious, most aren't. Unless we're talking purely about schools that cut those people out, kids need to be forced to push through their boredom because work will be boring.
Tanista
7d ago
Her run-ins with the law and rampant rebelliousness in high school appear to have been a phase. The damage that phase did to her life prospects (like missing out on college) seems to be more permanent.
We weren't really rich (more middle class) and being black they probably blended in better, but apparently my sister's friends got a bit weird when they realized she was slumming it. Which...I kinda get. We found it frustrating too.
There's obviously no way to figure this out, but I truly wonder what race relations would be like if all racial agitating was treated like the N-word and limited to American descendants of slaves (and Injuns and railway workers)
It has to be infuriating to hear this shit from not just from ethnic groups that are richer than the white median, but from people like Ilhan Omar who ran cause they fucked up their countries.
Tanista
8d ago
No, that was the Ford response
Tanista
8d ago
You don’t see the people who were both dumber and less hardworking than you; they’re in a different social class entirely.
When you think about it, this is a pretty succinct explanation for a lot of the failure modes the current elite drive us into. Educational discipline, homelessness, crime....the biggest failures are from dealing with truly judgment proof. The people who wouldn't be in college, whether because of low IQ or conscientiousness or other such traits.
In places where compulsion is really the main option and people find it distasteful or immoral , things fall apart.
Tanista
8d ago
Mean IQ during grades 1-4 tattooed to the forehead in childhood?
Why would you need any of this? All you need is tracking (disliked by many for reasons @FtttG touches on) and the kids will put together the pecking order. We figured it out anyway in my school but it was tiny, 300 people total.
Post high school is a bit of a problem I guess. But if you had IQ tests and there was no awkwardness around you can figure it out. Thing is, I'm not sure we'd want to. It matters less in more selective schools and I don't know that people who run institutions want to be publicizing which programs actually capture the least mental horsepower.
And sure, the halo effect exists, but clothes, grooming and physical features were always the stereotypical weak point of hardcore nerds
Yes, the high-IQ sperg archetype is the clearest exception, which helps OP's point.
Obviously the plan is to get a nuke and obviate the "get militarily humiliated" part.
There's plenty of things that can be done if everyone was willing. An obvious solution is to just remove birthright citizenship for non permanent residents and institute a massive guest worker program.
There's often no point discussing those things in isolation though, because the reality is that many states are explicitly hostile to immigration enforcement as a matter of fact
I see little reason to be optimistic about some wonkish solution. This is not a problem of simply not figuring out the right nudge. It's about defeating your adversaries' attempts to stop you. The problem is enemy action.
Given that they're quite clear about their positions, I'm not morally opposed to taking the simple, cheaper solution. There's tens of millions of people illegally in the US. It's insane to expect to put migrants under surveillance long term instead of grabbing them where you know they'll be.
Especially given that it's just a fact that your adversaries let in millions of people in a four year span and leave you with the mess. Where is the sense of fair play in that?
Even worse this sort of no-but-yes suggestion where people demand an unreasonable (imo) standard is a trick used by bad actors who are hostile to enforcement anyway, so they've poisoned the well for you.
A genteel immigration system that slides illegals out of the populace to their homes is possible. It is not possible under these conditions.
Tanista
14d ago
this is just some poor shmuck cutting corners and were I in their circumstances I might have taken the same leap". By all means we should try and take broad-level measures so that the opportunities for ignoring the rules close, but, as much as is possible, we shouldn't take this out on the actual human beings involved, who aren't doing anything that emotionally resonates with me as egregiously "immoral".
Recent experience says that you can't have both of these. Because this makes you subject to the very attack that has caused these sorts of ICE shenanigans and the general polarization around immigration: anyone who knows you're squeamish in this way can exploit it by refusing to enforce immigration laws on a local level and then hammer your empathy when someone from ICE finally gets that guy who's slipped past for a half-decade.
At which point, you'll be put in a position to pick a side and end up like everyone else.
I'm reminded of a comment made here a while back that men like female characters who have a close relationship with at least one man who is not their love interest
This seems to just be filtering out a particularly hamfisted brand of woke politics is all.
Women often go for sausage-fest cast shows like Sherlock, or the Avengers, where there are no women and/or the main character is actively hostile to them.
Benedict Cumberbatch's Sherlock (Avengers movies have female cast-mates) is a high-status, mercurial genius who doesn't care for people except a few that impress him who he forms a deep and abiding relationship with. Watson, one of the few people this applies to and the one it applies to most strongly, is the usual partner in all of the slash fics.
This is basically 50 Shades of Grey by proxy. Or Metropolis. Many such cases.
Stephen Harper and his immigration system are weeping.
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