Tractatus
10d ago
The continued (unjustified) support of Nate Silver as a polling guru by "Rationalists" (to say nothing of "Prediction Markets") proves that there now 4 things you never ask:
A man, his salary
A woman, her age
A white nationalist, if his girlfriend can pass the paperbag test
And a Rationalist, to ever, ever, just even once, actually update his priors
Nate put his thumb on the scales to give Trump even the small chance he gave him in 2016 (those odds were not supported by the actual polling data), and has been a debacle ever since. This cycle alone we've already had two completely fake polling companies exposed, and Nate taking them out of his model doesn't help given that other pollsters were already herding towards them. WaPo had to put a disclaimer on their Kansas poll data because Republicans won't respond; this is not a new problem, and it is not one that pollsters have any way to solve. But "muh Nate Silver!" will ever be the rallying cry.
Early Voting/Absentee ballots that can be traced by voting district don't look promising for Dems. Going into the midterms, I'd pegged Dems taking the House, while retaining the Senate, mostly based on "Everyone Knows" the incumbent President always loses seats, but also Iran and inflation, but at this point, it would take a miracle for the Dems to take control of the Senate, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Republicans managed to keep control of the House. The only way the polling makes sense if Dems in deep Blue states collapsed while surging in states Trump won by double digits. It's beyond preposterous.
Tractatus
13d ago
As best I can tell, cultures that explicitely and successfully reject American cultural products have kept marriage rates up. In a very real sense, America is the global monoculture, where even domestically-produced cultural products in foreign countries are still influenced by America and American values. To paraphrase (ok, bastardize) Chairman Mao, what we see in China, Korea, Japan, France, England, etc. is "Americana with Chinese/Japanese/insert country here characteristics"
Tractatus
13d ago
No, because gays never stopped being promiscuous, and PrEP isn't going to be relevant to straights
Tractatus
13d ago
You can observe this behavior by going into a normal office where women outnumber men; I'll caveat this with allowing that if you're looking at turbolib areas, like the Bay Area, this might not hold. But women chasing too few men definitely means they lower their standards of acceptable behavior. Steve Sailor had a good article pointing out observations among Black women, who famously are the least likely to date outside their race, but also hold to the normal trend of educated women not marrying "down"; Black women with a degree wildly outnumber Black men with a degree, and Black women are reduced to putting up with lack of committment, having to turn a blind eye to blatant cheating (or just outright acceptance of soft harems), physical abuse, mooching, etc.
Tractatus
13d ago
"companionate marriage" as a concept was created during the Victorian era. Your typical European was marrying who mom and dad told them to, and this can easily be observed in oral histories and written records of the time. Your sons and daughters would have, at most, had some say, but tempered by 1) the parents must approve, and 2) the strict expectation that marriage and family formation start as soon as possible after adulthood; no pining away after "the one that got away," and certainly no "playing the field till I figure myself out"
Tractatus
13d ago
And I'm not sure what you mean when you say 'it's not happening now'. I mean, the older man-younger woman pairing is literally universal. There are absolutely no human cultures where the typical relationship involves a younger man and an older woman. None at all.
Please explain to me how you think the second half of your comment relates to the first. Women, as a rule, are not marrying older men. Even fewer men are marrying older women, how does this prove, to you, that younger women prefer older men?
hunter-gatherers have lots of 'divorce'
Source desperately needed. We do not have record of this behavior in examinations of hunter-gatheres, it doesn't appear in oral traditions/myths. For the love of God, this behavior doesn't even show up in our simian relatives; has the whole community just replaced historical fact with blatant bullshit read on jimdotblog's website?
Tractatus
14d ago
1 is fairly uncontroversial
It's complete bullshit. For one, it's not even happening now, when mate choice is a thing, but more importantly, mate choice being "a thing" is completely novel; historically, marriages were decided by the families of the prospective spouses, not the spouses themselves, and this is true across cultures and time, as far as we're able to find in the record. Sexual selection was not a thing for humans; there are animals that evolved sexual selection, and we know how they behave, and what they look like. They do not look and behave like humans ever have.
2 and 3 do not describe the world we live in at all. There's about as many Zoomer girls as Zoomer men, and WAAAAAY more girls in college than men. We would not see the current iteration of #MeToo at college campuses if it were all about whether there were more women then men. College behaviors are in fact the opposite of what we would expect to have seen, given how gender imbalances have historically played out before the "Woke" era. Normally, too many women chasing too few men do result in debauchery and lower standards, yet that is not what we are seeing.
Modern sexual norms are downstream of a few things, chiefly increasing narcissism as a result of social atomization (along with an economy that profits greatly from it), decades of "sexual harassment" propaganda that prime women to see all male interest as inherently hostile, and social media giving a megaphone to the craziest of crazies who escalate all interactions to the most extreme (I'm thinking of nonsense like a redditors advising a mother it's actually a good thing her 4 year old son didn't want to be hugged by grandma, because nothing is more vitally important than "consent").
Tractatus
14d ago
Projection; your general Democratic voting Jew is as pure Blue Tribe as can be, and rural Evangelicals are his quintessential opposite. Accordingly, it must be true that it is the Evangelical that hates him, because to believe otherwise would force him to confront the possibility that it is he who is the bigot, which of course cannot be the case, as he is a Good Fucking Person, while the Evangelical is not.
Tractatus
17d ago
Looks like it's not gonna be "What can Flavio Bolsonaro do?," but rather "What's gonna be done to Flavio Bolsonaro?," and I think we can all guess.
Tractatus
21d ago
in an amusing coincidence, my "for you" twitter feed has been not-stop shit-flinging between Japanese users and everyone else over a mod - not even a prated copy, but just a mod - of Tekken 6 that lets you play online. When there's finally translations of Mother 3, the shitshow is gonna be glorious.
Tractatus
1mo ago
They absolutely do not, that's why the meme exists; "oh, you don't believe in allowing infinite immigrants to abuse welfare benefits, didn't Jesus say to love your neighbor?" >deliberately ignores all scripture about charity not extended to allowing individuals to be leeches upon society. The rebuttals have been done to death, to absolutely no avail, because Internet Atheists don't give a shit, they really think they've "owned the Xtians" by cherry-picking a quote that they don't even understand, but are absolutely certain they do.
Tractatus
1mo ago
well, perhaps OP can't, but "the rightful calif" can
Tractatus
1mo ago
I'd quibble on pro-life; Trump gave them a win, then they turned around and blamed him for their failure to do anything other than embarass themselves every time abortion came up in state elections.
Tractatus
1mo ago
Wrong; if the police only manage to "follow proper procedure" when Patriot Front is involved, and not only refuse to do so for other "far right" groups, but actively make it worse, then it is the former that requires explanation, not the latter.
Tractatus
1mo ago
He's pushing policies that would normally be radioactive, but because he's loudly Anti-Orange Bad Man, everyone falls in line. Not sure how you're not getting that.
Tractatus
1mo ago
Indeed it is. He really went out of his way to not promote it, and only recently just tweeted a link to it. Last upload is like a year ago, sadly.
Tractatus
1mo ago
I admit I don't have a very good understanding of conservative women who are pro* Lindsay Clancy.
Women's issues, especially Gender War slop*, is arguably the best example of "conservatives are just liberals doing the speed limit." To abuse the analogy, they're the "We're just doing 10 over, we're not driving like maniacs like those people" party. There's very little daylight - the abortion question, mostly - between Girl-Dad Boomers and Tomi Lahren-esque conservathots; any problem a man has is purely of his own doing, and any problem a woman has is entirely a man's failure, somewhere, somehow. A liberal will insist that the sisterhood "shout her abortion;" a "conservative" will lament that a man didn't step up to help raise infinitely many kids that aren't his, and anyway didn't Jesus say we shouldn't judge? (Never mind this isn't what Matthew 7 says, and in any event will promptly be forgotten the moment a man's failings are broached).
*Do not, under any circumstances, engage with an online female TradCath and mention 1st Corinthians 7. They will come out of the fucking woodwork to call you a rapist for dariing to suggest that maybe wives have just an inkling of obligation to their husbands.
Tractatus
1mo ago
They can't keep her in a mental institution past the point where the docs rule she's not longer mentally unwell, which they've already cleared her on. At most, Mass can hold her 6 months. Make no mistake, they know this. "Get Lindsey the help she needs" is very much cover for "women are not accountable, for anything, ever."
Tractatus
2mo ago
The psychiatrists advising "her behavior isn't consistent with typical psychoses, but we can't rule it out" instead of "this is not psychosis" Her every action not screaming "I am deliberately planning all this!" such as:
*waking up in the hospital and saying almost anything other than "where is my lawyer?"
*previous mentions of this "command voice"
*the murders being somewhat spontaneous, possibly after a triggering incident, not after an extended search for locations to keep the husband as far away as possible.
*demonstrated issues during the post-partum phase, instead of well outside the window.
Tractatus
2mo ago
No, that would be silly. Maybe you can find some Twitter randos claiming as such - there's 8.5 billion or so people on Earth, and seemingly twice that many Twitter accounts, so I wouldn't be shocked if you could - but no, Asian men aren't white. They just aren't included, as a rule, in the Progressive Stack.
Don't make the mistake of thinking the Oppression Olympics are rigously defined, and subject to serious analysis, and for that matter, don't make the mistake of thinking they evolved organically, ground-up. The system decided it was in its interest to "Believe Women," when the target was "White Men*" but not when it came to "Black and Brown Bodies." Women aren't leaders, and won't be the ones making the call on who counts. As Orwell noted in 1984, women are the most ruthless enforcers of the rules, but they don't make them. They're** not going to go hard on this guy unless the system tells them he's fair game, that they won't be accused of "doing a racism" if they do.
*"White Men" being primarily men not in capital-P "Power," primarily (and especially) Red Tribe men, not literally every man of Caucasian descent. **Again, this is in the main; doubtless there'll be some women going off the reservation on Twitter, but not in numbers to matter, and they'll catch hell for doing so).
Tractatus
2mo ago
You're not allowed to countermand sworn testimony by relying on your "experience" though. And no, "expertise" isn't allowed, just general experiences. Doing so introduces unsworn testimony that the opposition has not had the opportunity to cross-examine.
Tractatus
2mo ago
Wait, did you just take my post from last thread - where I used that very example to mock people claiming it's impossible to prove intent - and "YesChad" it?
No, that is not the MA standard, because that's not what "beyond a reasonable doubt" means. If it were, then every defense attorney practicing in MA for the past 60+ years should be disbarred for gross negligence by not using this One Weird Trick to get every criminal defendent off the hook. That this has not happened, that no-one has apparently discovered this One Weird Trick to Get Out of Jail Free in all these decades should cause one to question whether they truly understand what "beyond a reasonable doubt" means, right?
Tractatus
2mo ago
actual experts... What? The defense called 6 psychiatrists, the prosecution 3. Not a one said her behavior was consistent with post-partum psychosis, or any psychosis, for that matter. The hospital declined enrollment in a post-partum program because, you know, the diagnositc criteria is 4 weeks, not 8 months/3 years/5 years/whenever and whereever a woman feels like claiming it. Reddington, a lawyer, was the one who floated post-partum depression/psychosis
Any "experts" claiming this was psychosis are either a) lying about their expertise, or b) shamelessly lying (a la Sapolsky on neuroscience) about the state of the field for ideological purposes.
No, they aren't The utter refusal of EA's to actually look at what happens after they implement their policies, and update accordingly, is breathtaking. It's amateur hour "reasoning from 1st principles" all the way down: Malaria is devastating! Malaria nets are cheap and easy to use! Give Africans Malaria Nets! ← stop here, completely refuse to think if there are any second order effects to take into account, or consider what, if anything, could go wrong, then loudly insist that you are, in fact, very smart.
Austin doesn't strike me as a lunatic but the way he writes about her reeks a bit romantic. Oh no!
This will come across as "uncharitable," but show this announcement to 100 of your normie coworkers and 100% of them will answer "They're fucking. No doubt about it."
Edit: Hold the phone, this is the organization that got $500k from FTX, and is currently fighting to not have to give it back? We're well past "good optics"
Alone's last post on The Last Psychiatrist blog was "Who Bullies the Bullies?"...about how there was now a consensus among the media, politicians, and economic interests that the Wild West, anonymous Internet had to go, that the internet was dangerous, in that women were scared, and Something Must Be Done. This was published in May 2014, well before Trump, and more importantly, well behind the curve. It was already the case that elites had decided to go with censorship, they just needed time to propogandize the masses to accept it, and better tools to enforce it. Trump was just the biggest victim of it; recall that it wasn't until the 2020 elections that they decided they could silence him too, long after they'd made it the default that his supporters could be deplatformed, debanked, etc.
Anyone reading these statements and believing the UNHRC and Carl Bildt genuinely thought this included Steve Sailor citing racial differences in IQ tests, Tradcons saying "maybe women actually would be better off taking care of the home," or any pushback whatsoever on infinity immigrantion (to say nothing of "Tits or GTFO") is, as the kids say, ngmi. "We believe in the free flow of information" has, to this class of person, always meant "spreading neoliberal ideals," hopefully with Color Revolultions, "Girls in STEM!" movements in countries that end in -stan, and endless funding for NGOs, not serious debate on if we need to go in some other direction.
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