TheFooder
21hr ago
He failed to achieve most of his policy goals
This is the best reason to vote for him. I'm being completely serious.
TheFooder
1d ago
"...I am confused" about rationalists who choose to actively endorse voting at all as a means of affecting positive changes, given the candidates we have on offer.
This has always been difficult for me to wrap my head around too. I've been cynical about American elections so long that I almost forget why and when someone intelligent that I respect says to me that voting is actually important I will stop and listen. But I have yet to be convinced that my participation has any impact on anything. It seems irrational to view my vote as meaningful, hence I always throw it away. I only vote for outsiders and always as a protest--but I do vote. Why? Habit I suppose, certainly not because I can justify it.
I suppose the problem is that I wouldn't recognize when my vote might matter. I kind of look at it all like a sweepstakes where I like 1:1000 odds but don't bother with 1:3,000,000 odds. So, I focus on school board races, state representatives, city council and the like. Presidential elections stir no feelings or emotions in me because they only exist as mid-wit theater.
TheFooder
1d ago
I never understood this either. There's an argument that I've heard that the media is biased precicely because they don't go after Trump hard enough. I can't compute it. As a reasonably disinterested American, all I've seen for 15 years is the media constantly going after him, but in the last few months, basically since he was shot at, the media kinda, sorta treats him like he's a presidential candidate--while also reminding us how terrible he is at the same time. The idea that "Trump has been normalized " is so far beyond my perception of reality I don't even know how to engage with it.
TheFooder
4d ago
Here's what no one is saying: Madison Square Garden was the home to the original WWE (WWF). Trump also appeared on WWE. Trump loves Kayfabe. Therefore Trump is a professional wrestler.
TheFooder
9d ago
Is violence a hard line? Or can some violence be tolerated? Violence has a wide range.
TheFooder
9d ago
If it wasn't clear, this group contains the 0.00001% of amazing and delightful political takes.
TheFooder
9d ago
I've traveled far and wide. No one will remember (or care) but I've been here since the old SSC days and the number one thing I learned from this group is that 99.99999% of people have stupid takes on politics. Just the same empty balderdash over and over.
I vibe with you 1000%
TheFooder
9d ago
Tons of hype. Maybe 99% hype.
Ok, maybe that's not fair...the big deal is that there's always a chance something different could happen. I'm just inured to a political class of the lowest common denominator and the resulting chaos.
TheFooder
10d ago
I'm not sure I can steelman it but my sister is a fairly high-level employee there (GS 13 or 14--I should probably know). She works specifically with the adult education department (which is never mentioned nor considered when people complain about DoE, IMO) and doesn't have a ton to say about K-12. Everything that follows is my understanding of what she's told me, not heavily researched data.
She points out that most of what the DoE does, I think she said 1/3-1/2 of the budget(?) is managing FAFSA. Most of the K-12 stuff is state level with recommendations from DoE with few hard requirements. Another major part of what they do is fund research programs that either focus on specific groups and methodologies, or collect data for analysis. She's pretty adamant that what people think they hate about the DoE is not really what the DoE does. She also claims that were the DoE disbanded, half of the people would go to the Dept. of Labor (where DoE originated from) and others would go to places like Dept. of Health and Human Services. That removing the DoE wouldn't really do anything except push bureaucrats around.
I mused out loud that maybe it wouldn't be the end of the world if it were disbanded and it nearly destroyed our relationship. She complains bitterly about being passed over for promotions and the ineptitude of her co-workers. She seems bitter and resentful, so as her brother I wonder if there isn't a better job out there for her to be doing. Her position is that it's an easy job she almost literally phones in (she's on the phone constantly with researchers and other DoE people) and it allows her to donate half her money to charities (not much of an exaggeration) and time for volunteering. She's deeply motivated to help the less-fortunate, but also seems like the exact type of bureaucratic cat lady people are complaining about.
To me, it seems to me that Dept's of Ed belong to state level bureaucracies. It makes sense to keep it federated and the states in light competition with each other. However, I also see some value in the FAFSA. The government providing some funds and low interest loans to students who may want to go to universities anywhere in the US seems fine to me. It's at least using taxes to put some money back into some peoples' hands. But that's fairly weak support as I'm not certain university degrees aren't overvalued in the first place nor can I attest to any fraud waste or abuse inherent in the system. (There are DoE programs for jobs programs and The adult education angle is interesting to me because we really do have a problem with under-educated adults in the US, either those who failed out of crummy schools, the chronically unmotivated or those who arrived here without the ability to read or speak English, etc. But I'm still not sure why this shouldn't be a state or even municipal level organization.)
It's a strange superposition: I'm not inclined to save it but I also doubt that it's the pernicious institution others are convinced of. It definitely looks like a make-work program when I hear about the morons my sister has to deal with on the daily, but it also doesn't seem like it's nearly as powerful as the people who hate it claim. I'm mostly indifferent and probably bend a little toward keeping it for my own peace of mind and QoL.
TheFooder
10d ago
I'm pretty sure every revision is available for every WP article...unless and admin deletes it. I'm not sure how much powers the admins have, but I think it's a lot.
TheFooder
14d ago
Seems like a reasonable concern. My estimation would be something over $1.5 billion. Something like, "here's the original money, plus another contract." I'd be ok with that. Much over $2 billion--specifically for Star Link--might seem unreasonable without some caveats, like, say, increased deliverables.
TheFooder
14d ago
HAH! I think that as well. Give the guy 5 years and he'll be a progressive sweetheart again... if it's convenient, of course. The ire directed at him has always seemed superficial to me.
TheFooder
15d ago
I had the same thought. Presumably they have some type of detailed records and it's not just an intern running SpeedTest on their browser. Also, one might presume that part of the investment would be to bring more routers online to increase bandwidth and some amount of service decrease could indicate the need for greater funding. Of course, a For-Profit compnany should have it's own money so I'm not that sympathetic.
TheFooder
15d ago
You may be interested in trading on my exchange, www.Bitnomial.com
We offer hashrate futures which can be used to hedge against price fluctuations and power shortages. It's mostly useful for larger, crypto native businesses, but if you wanted to reach out to our FCM (the part of the business that handles customers) they may be able to give you more insight into costs and on-boarding.
At a minimum, you might want to look into this site: https://hashrateindex.com/?ref=changelog
TheFooder
15d ago
https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-probes-fcc-decision-to-revoke-starlink-funds/
“In 2020, the FCC awarded SpaceX’s Starlink $885.5 million through RDOF. Starlink ‘is the world’s first and largest satellite constellation using a low Earth orbit to deliver a broadband internet capable of supporting streaming, online gaming, video calls’ and more. On August 10, 2022, the FCC rejected Starlink’s long-form application to receive funding through RDOF on the basis that the FCC ‘cannot afford to subsidize ventures that are not delivering the promised speeds or are not likely to meet program requirements,’” Chairman Comer wrote.
“In December 2023, the Commission reaffirmed its decision to deny the award to Starlink. More specifically, the FCC again ‘determined that Starlink failed to demonstrate that it could deliver the promised service.’ Notably, however, FCC Commissioners Brendan Carr and Nathan Simington have spoken against the Commission’s decision […] Commissioner Carr has argued that the FCC is now among a ‘growing list of administrative agencies that are taking action against Elon Musk’s businesses.’ The FCC must ground its decision-making in law and not politics,” Chairman Comer continued.
Not sure if I have much to add, I didn't see anyone talk about this, but may have missed it.
I understand that a lot of people have it out for Musk, but this seems blatantly partisan and all culture war. Is there a not-culture war aspect to this? $885 million seems like small potatoes compared to all the other numbers that have been floated around lately. I have a hard time strong-manning the decision to not release the funds. It seems like another pebble in the bucket of reasons why Musk, for the sake of his ambitions and livelihood has to support Trump. People can get mad about it, but what else is the dude supposed to do with the power of the Dems fully against him?
TheFooder
15d ago
would cost you $1.06 right now.
My point is this wasn't the case a few days ago. I could have bought Harris at $0.48 and sold Trump at $0.56 (aka buy 'No' at $0.44). Selling at market today would have been profit.
As for pump and dump, I think these markets are so thin that $850 would look like a pump and there's no reason to think, if it was a pump, that there was only a single individual involved. Volume doubled for a three day stretch, so something was happening and it was unlikely a single person.
I'm not confident in anyone winning anything...again, my point. I think the actual price per contract should be $0.50.
I'm also not trying to make 'real money' on prediction markets. I don't really understand who would do that...but w/e. What I'm interested in is how that market functions and how closely my predictions skew toward reality. Though, with your suggestion, I may take a closer look at Polymarket.
TheFooder
15d ago
Couldn't we also find this stuff on the moon? Why not the moon? I would presume every crater has something interesting at its center. It just seems like the most obvious place to start but I rarely see it mentioned or discussed.
I'm not super up-to-date on all the latest space exploration talk, so maybe someone can give me the tl;dr.
TheFooder
15d ago
I'm left hoping that the winning candidate is not able to implement their policies.
The only sane point-of-view in modern American presidential politics.
TheFooder
15d ago
The issue isn't about how the bet resolves, speculation is about scalping price movements on the margins.
If a true-beliver wants to move the markets, they can, by buying a bunch of shares at a certain price (or prices). I one is certain Trump will win and one wants to make it look like there's some support, buying contracts at $0.55 (or thereabouts) is pretty rational because if he wins the investor more-or-less doubles their money.
For me, a person who believes the actual market is 50/50 and $0.50 is the right price for both contracts I can take advantage of these swings to scalp a few bucks with limit orders. Over time, I expect the prices to settle back toward the 'real price', which they have, so I just have to be patient and I can win a few bucks here and there based on volatility. The nice thing about markets (at least well designed and functional ones) is that they will always drift back to the correct price even if they fluctuate in strange ways.
My experience with these markets is that you have people with positions, true-believers and you have speculators. The speculators love to see market moves because they can scalp profits. The true-believers are taking out a bet.
TheFooder
15d ago
I can't speak to Polymarket, but I was watching Predictit pretty closely. I saw a surge in market activity about a week ago with Trump moving from $0.49 to $0.56 and Harris dropping from $0.55 to as low as $0.48. I predicted this was a pump-and-dump and that the prices would inevitably settle back to $0.50-ish (there's not really enough volume to to totally wipe the pump, IMO). I missed the $0.48 shares for Harris, but she's back up to $0.51 and Trump is back down to $0.53. Had I taken the Trump short and gotten in at the Harris Lows I could have made $6 for every $100. Not huge, but basically proves my point that these market moves are opportunities for scalping and the race is strictly 50/50...at least for now.
TheFooder
15d ago
TheFooder
20d ago
Thank you for articulating the same question that's been bugging me for years at this point. It's so bonkers even my wife has started wondering what's up with it. People will flip from perfectly lovely to Dead-in-their-eyes-TDS without any warning and it's terrifically frightful!
I've seen the claim a few times on notes on Substack and shared posts from Twitter. Along with things like, "If Trump is elected we will literally be killed!"
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