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thejdizzler


				

				

				
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joined 2023 April 17 18:49:42 UTC

				

User ID: 2346

thejdizzler


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 1 user   joined 2023 April 17 18:49:42 UTC

					

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User ID: 2346

Is it the damn phones?. A new article from one of my favorite energy bloggers suggests that the cratering of fertility rates (which were stable for much of the late 20th century and early aughts) could be driven by the adoption of smartphones. I'm personally rather convinced by this hypothesis, as many of the other explanations given by both people on this forum (status) and in-real life (economics, fear about the future) fall apart with counter examples. You're really telling me that motherhood is now equally low status in the USA, Latin America, the Middle East, and South Africa to depress fertility below 2, or that middle-class young white people are so economically oppressed that they can't have kids? I don't buy it. The smartphone, and its related access to a 24/7, truly global media environment seems to the only material change that could cross so many geographic and cultural lines. There's also a ton of causal mechanisms: hypergamy for instagram baddies, less time interacting with people in person so fewer marriages and thus fewer babies, and atrophied social skills for when interactions do happen in the wild.

Of course a lot of the effects of the smartphone can't be decoupled from high-modernity in general and its culture of extreme convenience and isolation, nor from related technologies like social media and short-form video content. And the groups that seem to avoid this depression in fertility seem to avoid all of these technologies.

I haven't killed my smartphone just yet, but I did delete all my dating apps about a month ago and have stayed off of them for the longest time since I last had a girlfriend. More in person relationships for me in the future I hope.

  1. Work. Still feeling a bit unmotivated this summer. Heading to the UK for a class on July 4th (very patriotic of me).
  2. Fitness: Did 2x tempo sessions again last week and 61 miles. Up to 28% of Baltimore City. Weight has finally dropped to 168. Guess I was holding on to a bit of water weight for a while which allowed a sudden loss. This gives me some hope I can get into the low 160s high 150s by the Chicago marathon.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: attended a degrowth/abundance salon which was very inspiring, although I worry that most of the people there made it into a bit of an echo chamber! Hoping to read a bit more this month. Also realized how filled with typos many of my posts and texts have been. Something to work on in the next few months.
  4. Finances: -7% savings rate this month which while bad could have been a lot worse with increased travel and rent expenses.
  5. Dating. No dating apps continues to be nice. Kissed the girl I made pizza with at the end of the date. Not sure if there's a connection, but we both want to hang out again.
  6. Tarot. No session.
  7. Socializing: Still feeling a little unbalanced on the socialization side.
  8. Screen time: 1.4 hours phone. I'm honestly not thinking about this much, but I could scroll on instagram and Strava much less than I do.
  9. Mental health: Pretty good, although I wake up to a cortisol spike a bit too early I the morning. Would like to be able to get to bed a little earlier than I do.

Whatever happened to the Catalonian independence movement?

I’m 6’0” so I dont need to lose weight. However I will be faster at running if I’m closer to 155. The extra body fat isn’t doing anything for me.

  1. Work. Still feeling a bit unmotivated this summer but have been getting some stuff done slowly and surely. Seeing some of my cohorts thesis presentations has also made m realize how unfairly high of a standard I'm being held to by my advisors.
  2. Fitness: Did 2x tempo sessions again last week and 60 miles. Up to 27% of Baltimore City. Weight is still at 171, no progress on the weight loss front.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: wrote a blog post on my values that I'm very proud of. Finally doing some immersion again and making slow and steady progress on my various novels.
  4. Finances: Spending is very much in the red this month because of increased rent and travel expenses. This is stressing me out too much which is stupid.
  5. Dating. Not having dating apps has actually been really nice. Pizza making date tonight.
  6. Tarot. Good session about destiny and weight loss.
  7. Socializing: Still feeling a little unbalanced on the socialization side.
  8. Screen time: 1.5 hours phone. This could be better
  9. Mental health: had some anxiety about my finances, but generally feeling pretty good.
  1. Work. Summer slump, but about to finish the final replicates of a very annoying experiment, so will happy to be done.
  2. Fitness: Did 2x tempo sessions last week and won a pride 5k in ~16:40, slower than expected but I've stacking the mileage. 61 miles and gym+sauna once.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: Been having a great time having Claude coach me through writing an Anki add-on to calculate lexical coverage/ CEFR level from Anki cards. Wrote my Italian update last week and novels are all going well.
  4. Finances: Spending is going to be pretty high this month with higher rent and having to book hostels for Germany. Still hopefully should be in the black.
  5. Dating. Deleted my dating apps because I was tired of them/not meeting people I liked. Independently my friend Bella asked me out and we are going to make pizza together at her house Thursday.
  6. Tarot. No session this week
  7. Socializing: Went to the beach with some EA people, Spanish happy hour, and hanging out with running friends.
  8. Screen time: 1.5 hours phone. This could be better
  9. Mental health: feeling more relaxed without dating apps on my phone, and finishing up some work deadlines.

I have to keep reading unfortunately because it's for book club. Other people seem to be enjoying it, so will have to see what they say.

Maybe old news to this forum, but I stumbled upon two articles. The first is a Harvard professor using Claude to write a paper that second year graduate student could, and the second is a Less Wrong post about how Go players have disempowered themselves to AI.

I bit the AI bullet finally a couple weeks ago: first using it to help me fix up my software package that had some pretty annoying bugs, and later to help me make a couple Anki add-ons I had sitting in my brain. Even the free version of Claude is very good, and although it made mistakes, at least for coding, it's as least as smart as me and works 100s of times faster and doesn't need to take breaks. With some back and forth I can get it to make something functional it a tenth of the time it would take me to do it by myself. This is almost exactly the experience the Harvard Physics Professor has with trying to get Claude to write the theoretical physics paper: it takes about two weeks of back and forth, but eventually Claude manages to produce what the author and other experts think is a pretty solid paper, in 20x the time as a graduate student.

This is all great for experienced faculty: at least in theoretical disciplines they can already greatly speed-up the research process without spending more or time on pesky grad students with the bonus that Claude doesn't mind if you're mean to it. For younger faculty, postdocs, and graduates students not so much. Not only do these students/researchers not have the experience or knowledge to critique Claude in the way to actually produce usable research, the fact that more experienced faculty can use AI in this way means that there's less demand for educated individuals in general, and slowly but probably surely, the pyramid scheme of Academia will collapse.

Which brings me to the second article. In contrast to chess, which has been a "solved" game for a long time and thus has had time to develop antibodies against heavy AI/computer use, the Go world has been taken completely by storm by AlphaGo, which has led to rampant cheating with AI and rapid deskilling of the player-base. The author of the article highlights that this was a choice made by the community, both not to punish cheaters, and to care more about abstract values like ranking and points rather than having fun or development of some kind of genuine skill.

How does this relate to the first article? I worry that this Harvard professor is missing the large scale implications of wide-spread adaption of his AI practices on the university system, and how on emphasis on one aspect of the system (solving problems efficiently) can destroy the whole thing if not left unchecked. Many people both inside and outside academia take the purpose of the academy to be the generation of new knowledge, mainly in the form of research papers. This is certainly its most important role, at least to society at large. But academia also needs to perform two other key functions: disseminate that knowledge to industry/the general public so it can actually be used by society, and to reproduce itself so knowledge can continue to be generated. AI puts both of these secondary functions in grave danger.

Consider two scenarios. In the first, AI agents get no better than they are now at solving scientific problems. In this case they are still useful to higher level faculty in producing novel research output. Due to enhanced productivity at the top, there is a lesser need for graduate students, postdocs and younger faculty, and the ones that do remain in the system receive inferior training because of heavy reliance on AI to pass coursework and generate their own novel research questions. Over time as traditionally trained professors retire the effectiveness of the system declines because the new professors aren't as competent and are thus unable to use AI as effectively. In the long-term output shrinks, and less knowledge is able to be translated to the general public.

In the second scenario AI continues to improve its capabilities. In this scenario research output continues to go up indefinitely, but we begin to lose the ability to comprehend what much of it means or how much of it can be applied. Academia basically stops needing to exist at all, and we are reliant on the proper alignment of AI to get anything of value out of the research it performs.

In both scenarios, academia has basically signed its own death wish. For the reward of extremely high-productivity for very AI-savvy professors over the next few years, the system that brought us so many world-altering discoveries will basically be dismantled. Like the Go players who have seen all enjoyment and skill taken out of the game by heavy AI use, I think we are going to see the same in academia, except at the very top. And if you're not effectively training students to take your place, the system can't last very much longer.

Luckily being in biology I still have quite a bit of time left before AI can automate away my hands, but this whole thing has made me very personally scared.

Starting Blood Meridian. Surprisingly readable given what I've heard, but comically over the top violence and McCarthy's disregard for useful grammar objects, especially quotation marks, grinds my gears just as much as it did when I read The Road for a class in undergrad. Otherwise listening to HP 3 in Italian and reading a light Spanish book about a love triangle between three roommates.

I'm coming to realize this as well. When I do a single thing at a time almost anything is relaxing.

I forgot to mention it. It's still in my routine, it's just kind of stagnated at 5 mins when I wake up/5 minutes when I go to sleep/breaks throughout the work day. It's something I would like to spend more time on, but I have to get over this attitude of always needing to be "productive"/in motion. The ideal goal would be sitting for 30 minutes in the morning and doing a 30 minute walking meditation in the evening and spending a bit more time on it during the weekends.

Yea but I'm the one who has to express that not her, it hurts my self esteem to be rejected (mainly kidding).

  1. Work. Paper was published! Feeling a bit anxious about work because of the possibility that we don't have microscopes when I get back from the UK and just poor time management in general
  2. Fitness: Did 2x tempo sessions last week and hit 57 miles with some biking. Did not make it to the gym: will be better about that this week.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: Novel clearing is going well, and writing my Italian update for this month.
  4. Finances: Nothing to report
  5. Dating. Brazilian women is "too overwhelmed" by living in a new country to be in a relationship, which is such bullshit because she just changed all her hinge photos. I just wish people would be honest when they rejected me. Anyway, have a date with someone else this weekend and a third person the weekend after.
  6. Tarot. No session this week
  7. Socializing: EA meetup, Spanish Happy Hour, various parties. Again too much socialization.
  8. Screen time: 1.4 hours phone. Getting that last little bit below an hour is proving to be a big challenge.
  9. Mental health: feeling bad because of rejection and poor time management at work.
  1. Work. Paper was accepted! Avoided being put on a jury yesterday which was huge because I have a ton of work to do before I go to the UK/Germany this summer.
  2. Fitness: Did 2x tempo sessions last week and hit 54 miles (again). Hit the gym twice and sauna-ed twice too. This week planning something similar.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: Finished After Virtue which I didn't like, and getting back on track with finishing various novels to clear my currently reading. Planning on getting at least one but hopefully two blog posts this month.
  4. Finances: spent 3.3k last month and had a 9% savings rate, which is not too bad. Hoping my progress isn't wiped out by our few months of extra rent (June and July) but will just have to eat out a little less.
  5. Dating. Third date with the Brazilian girl was disappointing. We went to the gym together and then she basically ran away when the line for ice cream was too long after. A bunch of red flags also came up during the week between the second and third dates so there is not much desire for a fourth date from my end, especially as there's another girl who wants to go on a date this weekend.
  6. Tarot. No session this week
  7. Socializing: EA meetup, party and various dinners. Too much socialization once again.
  8. Screen time: 1.1 hours phone. Getting that last little bit below an hour is proving to be a big challenge.
  9. Mental health: sleeping well and feeling good.

She's Brazilian but she's also American. She also knows Italian. A very sexy combination for me

  1. Work. Caved and used Claude to help me fix my code. It found the big bug in about 2 seconds, and helped me fix some other problems, although not without me having to do some trouble-shooting. I'm definitely impressed, but this thing seems to me much more like a very smart junior dev than an actual genius.
  2. Fitness: Did 2x tempo sessions last week and hit 54 miles. Also went to the gym once which was great Weight is still in the 170s and not really budging much. Planning on maintaining calories and upping the gym and mileage a bit.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: Have completely fallen off the wagon with all of this. Think this is because I'm just completely overwhelmed with work and exercise.
  4. Finances: I should be a hair under 3k this month, and that's with flights to Germany and a new Oura ring payed for. Will update with specifics next week.
  5. Dating. Second date on Friday went really well too. I ended up having sex with this girl which broke a pretty long dry spell. Have another date this weekend and excited to see where it goes.
  6. Tarot. No session this week
  7. Socializing: Artscape in Baltimore this past weekend and hike with my roommate. Again too much socialization.
  8. Screen time: 1.2 hours phone. Definitely noticing a very strong relationship between screen time and energy levels.
  9. Mental health: sleeping well and feeling good.

New Year's Resolution check ins:

  1. Work. Submitted manuscript last Friday and hoping it makes it through review quickly (it's a revision, so it should).
  2. Fitness: Did 2x tempo sessions last week and hit 50 miles. Weight is still mid 170s, but I'm in a mild (300-500) calorie deficit every day, so this should start to change a bit in the coming weeks.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: Haven't been meditating as much as I would like. One more meeting for After Virtue. Also fallen off the wagon a little on blog posts and language learning. I blame work.
  4. Finances: We found a third roommate to start in September. Europe travel will be a big expense, but it'll be nice not to skimp super hard for most of the rest of the year.
  5. Dating. Date went really well on Sunday and am seeing the girl again on Friday!
  6. Tarot. No session this week
  7. Socializing: feeling a bit overbooked with social events, so aiming to cut back a little bit. I've had a dinner or hang out every night this week and it's just been way too much.
  8. Screen time: 1.33 hours phone again. Definitely noticing a very strong relationship between screen time and energy levels.
  9. Mental health: feeling very tired but also very wired which is not good.

How goes it @FtttG, @self_made_human @birb_cromble @falling-star @Tollund_Man4 ?

They also have the smallest remaining oil stockpiles, so it's possible Hormuz is finally hitting them.

  1. Work. Going to resubmit second manuscript this week as soon as protein database gets approved. Very excited to be done.
  2. Fitness: Did a DEXA scan yesterday and found out all the extra weight I've gained in the past few years has been fat. I am up from 14 % body fat (the healthy hunter gatherer percentage) to 25%. This alone explains many health issues and lack of running performance. Will keep the forum update as to my progress, but planning on losing this gradually over the course of 6 months. Goal is to get back to 150.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: Meditating consistently at least once a day now for 5 minutes. Reading Bernard Cornwell's Saxon Stories and am thinking about getting into film more!
  4. Finances: Third roommate is still not locked down. Spending on track for a pretty conservative month. I will have some European travel this summer, but that should only set me back a few months.
  5. Dating. Really would like to stop watching porn. Going on a date on Sunday afternoon.
  6. Tarot. Great session on Monday night. My old roommate seems to be doing much better now!
  7. Socializing: visited my friend Dhruv in Florida for the weekend.
  8. Screen time: 1.33 hours phone! Would like to be consistently under 1: the only thing holding me back is travel and porn.
  9. Mental health: feeling excited and motivated.

Share price of fixed income will always go down slightly when the market is rising. The share price isn't what you care about, it's the monthly dividend.

I'd be interested!

It's sitting in my Fidelity account still as a combination of index funds, CDs, and cash. I'm going to buy a house with it once I get a job post PhD.

  1. Work. Job interview went well, although I'm not sure the start date is going to line up how I hope. Otherwise, wrapping up the resubmission for second first author paper (some drama there), and plugging away on my final paper.
  2. Fitness: Started running again, and going to start Norwegian singles/doubles next week.
  3. Intellectual Stuff: Plugging away at After Virtue. Discussed the Pacific War trilogy with my friend Dylan last night which was also very fruitful. Meditating consistently at least once a day now.
  4. Finances: Third roommate is still not locked down. Spending last month was only 2.6k, which led me to have an almost 30% savings rate!
  5. Dating. Nothing to report.
  6. Tarot. No session this week
  7. Socializing: Spanish happy hour and watching the Kinetic Sculpture race
  8. Screen time: 1 hour phone! Now do my PC haha.
  9. Mental health: feeling excited

How goes it @FtttG, @self_made_human @bird_crombie @falling-star @Tollund_Man4 ?

Think I've learned from endurance exercise that the most important thing really is just putting in the time. Details can be important, but what matters in this case is just sitting more.

I've also been investing! I have a blend between individual stock picks, index funds and fixed income. I was originally investing in individual CDs, which are about the same as a HYSA, but I've since diversified to some high-yield bonds and ETFs. Happy to chat more if you want!