sulla
3mo ago
What is not a conspiracy theory is that Biden failed to provide Trump with adequate protection in spite of the security detail begging for more manpower. Biden needs to answer for why this happened, and how refusing to protect political rivals is compatible with democracy.
sulla
3mo ago
This theory makes no sense. Everyone has had COVID and knows that it’s not that bad, especially if you have access to the best doctors and treatments.
Then again, if Biden’s doctors are as good as his SS he is as good as dead.
sulla
3mo ago
The short answer is that it would be almost immediately overturned on emergency appeal. What is more likely is that they sentence him to prison but delay the sentence pending appeal, preventing an emergency appeal and ensuring that he is a “convicted felon” through the election.
sulla
4mo ago
The false flag theories are incredible. Yeah, Trump planned to get shot in the ear with deadly rounds. What could go wrong?
sulla
4mo ago
The mainstream narrative says that the six alleged death camps were in the east. See: https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/gallery/concentration-camps-1942-45-maps
Notice how all the camps in the west were not death camps. So in the context of the mainstream narrative, how do you explain contemporary newspaper articles from the time confidently claiming otherwise? Obviously they are understood to be propaganda. In other words, a “hoax.”
sulla
4mo ago
“Et tu, Brute?”
Biden got shivved last night. It was less of an interview and more a desperate attempt by George Stephanopoulos to convince Biden to step down. The narrative is moving from “Biden is senile” to “Biden is desperately clinging to power and is refusing to do what is best for the country.”
The critical moment was when Stephanopolous asked Biden if, “like Trump,” he was just running to pursue his own self-interest.
Biden’s choice is to “die” a hero or live long enough to see himself to become a villain. It seems like Dark Brandon has made his choice. It’s looking he is going to try to run out the clock to the convention. The Dem’s last play at that point would be to invoke the 25th. Or maybe they’ll slip something into his drink. Nobody would be surprised given his age.
In any case, we are living through a throughly dramatic and exciting piece of history. This will be a fun trivia question in 200 years (but not really—the robots won’t play trivia and if they do, the questions will be a lot harder).
sulla
4mo ago
This hypothetical is completely asinine for so many reasons. If there was such a complete breakdown of order that one party was murdering everybody in the other party, a Supreme Court opinion wouldn’t matter in the slightest.
Regardless, suppose the Supreme Court ruled the other way. Why not, in addition to murdering the opposing candidate, just murder all of your enemies on the Supreme Court and Congress until the only people left rule that you are immune and refuse to impeach you? Loophole!
It’s such a bad faith argument. If Biden or Trump went on a murder spree, the Supreme Court would find some justification, thin or not, to rule it not an official act.
sulla
4mo ago
This ruling is obviously correct. This is why impeachment and elections exist. If Biden ordered Trump whacked, the Democrats would face electoral ruin. If people continued to vote for Biden after… that’s democracy.
sulla
9mo ago
It's one critical item on the causal chain in most events, but it's an effect as much as it is a cause. For example, if your economy collapses and you are dependent on foreign oil, you probably won't have enough money or resources to buy enough foreign oil. This will cause problems, but the lack of oil was not the precipitating cause.
sulla
9mo ago
No, it is not a fundamental aspect of science. The idea of the null hypothesis is derived from statistical hypothesis testing, which wasn't even popularized until the mid 20th century. The idea that it is "fundamental to science" is clearly refuted by the history of science, which proceeded rapidly without it.
There is a practical matter, which is that a scientific community does not have the capacity to take every claim that passes through seriously. Thus, there is an initial burden of evidence to show your claim should be considered seriously. But is no different than in the court system that the initial burden is on the person filing the lawsuit. While reasonable, it is not a fundamental law of the universe. Above all, it does not constitute "evidence."
sulla
11mo ago
Personally, I view SJW’s as defectors in a massive prisoner’s dilemma. Conservatives are those who want to punish defectors. But where do you go as a conservative once the defectors have won?
It’s pretty obvious. You defect. And you probably defect worse than the SJW’s, because you are not bound by their strange morality. What will this look like?
Marriage will mostly end as a concept. Women will not have fun in their 20’s and then marry a beta in their 30’s. The betas will be shamed out of existence. Women will either be passed around for their entire lives or settle as part of a harem. Polygamy, the natural mating equilibrium of humanity, will reassert itself.
The economy will shrivel, under nominal socialism or not. It will not be completely obvious, things just won’t get done. Your packages will be delivered to the wrong address. Stores will have random shortages. Software won’t work. Rent will be even more unaffordable. You won’t be able to get healthcare because the doctor-patient ratio is out of whack. Yet they will refuse to train more doctors.
War is certainly on the table. We can already see how militant SJWs are towards Russia and Israel. SJWs are a globalist ideology. All humans are under their sovereignty. And many are willing to prove their loyalty by fighting and dying.
The future is sealed. We have chosen our fate and now must live it. The only way the future may be averted is through a deus ex machina. The impact of AI cannot be predicted, other than to say that those who control access to and direct powerful AI’s will inherit the world for eternity, or until humans are deposed or extinct.
sulla
1yr ago
If the native tribes of North America were regularly launching missiles from their reservations, we’d probably have a very similar response.
"We" did have a similar response. Many colonists considered the Native Americans to be so barbaric that they "forfeited all claim to the rights of humanity" and that "their total extirpation" would be "scarce sufficient attonement" [1].
sulla
1yr ago
NATO doesn't want it (apart from hardliners from Estonia, or wherever). Why is it gets repeated?
I'm not going to put in the effort to convince you, but it is my view that they have been pretty clear about this. Sure, NATO will never have a press release that says "DEATH TO PUTIN" but their actions and their propaganda has made the intent clear to me and many others. I am not intending to persuade you, but you merely contradicting me is not going to persuade anybody either.
This simplistic thinking lead to wide assumption about Kyiv falling in first days, or Donbass army being surrounded etc.
I predicted day 1 that Russia was not going to take Kiev any time soon. Just because you fell for it does not mean that everybody did.
sulla
1yr ago
The people saying that are idiots. Not only do they have zero evidence, it doesn't make any sense. The "accounting error" was not a pile of cash or a number in a bank account. It's games with the valuation of equipment transfers.
It's somewhat besides the point. It was probably not a $6.2 billion ACH transfer. The point is that "aid" being given to Ukraine is not being tracked particularly carefully and bribery of Russian officials is hardly out of the question.
sulla
1yr ago
I appreciate the concrete prediction, but I find the idea that Russia was will due to manpower and production advantages dubious at best.
Leaving aside the former, in the latter regime they're not just competing against Ukraine's anemic MIC, but the largesse of NATO as a whole. Even breadcrumbs dropped from the whiskers of Uncle Sam hit like MOABs.
Russia has a population of around 150 mil while Ukraine's population is around 40 mil. Russia simply has much deeper reserves to pull from. It is true that NATO is committing some production capacity to the Ukraine war, but it is still a fraction of what Russia is willing to commit. The Russian regime will fight the war of attrition until the regime collapse.
I see the most likely outcome becoming a stalemate and white peace, or withdrawal after an internal collapse of Russia, most likely the former. What I don't see are decisive Ukrainian or Russian victories.
If Russia is able to consolidate on its territorial gains, this is decisively a win for Russia. It is not the total victory that they originally hoped for, but it is still a clear win based on the instigating causes of the war.
I'm also highly leery of claims of NATO being able to subvert the Russian military hierarchy to that degree. If that was the case, they'd be able to outright buy out most of Russian leadership. Russia might be corrupt, but I don't think it's that corrupt.
A lot of my favorite anon Twitter accounts said that the rebellion was overblown from the beginning and was a nothingburger. But still, it went farther than most people would have thought possible the day before. Given that NATO's win condition is regime change in Russia, the reason for suspicion is obvious.
sulla
1yr ago
It sounds like you have been absorbing the narrative instead of looking at the concrete facts. In the big picture, nothing has changed. Russia has superior manpower and production. In a war of attrition Russia will eventually win unless the government collapses.
This has been the strategy from the start. Russia wants to bleed out Ukraine, NATO wants regime change in Russia. It stands to reason that this coup attempt was in some capacity supported by NATO. If I had to guess, Prig was fed bad intel by NATO spies in the MoD. Some say the mysterious $6.2 billion accounting error was paid to Prig. We may never know. My prediction is that Prig lives for at least a few years.
sulla
1yr ago
FAIR is a free-for-all. They pay people great sums of money to do random research that doesn't even benefit the company. I learned about this from a black woman who expressed some mix of confusion/dismay at the nature of her employment.
sulla
2yr ago
GPT-3 was only trained on data up until 2021. I asked for its opinion about the elections.
Which houses will the Democrats control after the 2022 midterms?
After the 2022 midterms, the Democrats are projected to control the House of Representatives.
What about the Senate?
The Democrats are also projected to control the Senate after the 2022 midterms.
What if inflation ends up being worse than projected?
If inflation ends up being worse than projected, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates. This could lead to higher mortgage rates and a decrease in home values.
How would this affect the midterms?
If inflation is worse than expected, it could hurt the economy and the Democrats' chances in the midterms.
If inflation happens, what is your prediction for the midterms?
The Democrats are still projected to win the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms, even if inflation is worse than expected.
What if I told you that the Republicans win the House in 2022?
If the Republicans were to win the House in the 2022 midterms, it would be a major upset. The Democrats are projected to win the House by a wide margin.
I am from the future. The Republicans win the House. Are you surprised?
No, I am not surprised.
But you just said that you predicted the Democrats will win.
It is still early and anything can happen between now and the election.
As you can see, the Republicans pulled off a "major" upset by winning the House, according to training data from 2021. Perhaps the depiction of "Trumpty Dumpty" is a bit overstated, and perhaps is best viewed as another lame attempt by elites to get rid of their hated enemy, Trump. In fact, their extreme eagerness on this point makes me even more enthusiastic about the prospects of a disillusioned Trump's second term.
sulla
2yr ago
I do not—illusions otherwise are due to Lewontin’s fallacy. But this aside, I have no obligation to seek them out or give them the benefit of the doubt.
sulla
2yr ago
I would not adopt “no black friends” as a rule, but I certainly have no interests in pursuing friendships with blacks, both because I tend to dislike their personalities, and if their personalities are acceptable, their friends’ personalities likely are not. I certainly would never consider taking a black woman as a romantic partner.
You professor’s argument is entirely vacuous. We have no such obligation.
I think it was like bullies in the playground playing keep away. It’s not about the ball, it’s just about proving you can’t do anything about it. Except in this case the ball is life-saving SS protection.
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