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spiky_fungus


				

				

				
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User ID: 3159

spiky_fungus


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2024 July 31 00:30:53 UTC

					

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User ID: 3159

600-700 tonnes

surely more?

But I don't think that's enough to change my appraisal on him running his companies mostly on hype.

have you seen orbital launch graphs? launch cost graphs? SpaceX is far from dud (even if there is also enormous pile of hype)

spaceX just dominates, even at spaceX vs all humanity except spaceX

reducing costs with reusable rockets was a joke before spaceX

That is why I give odds at 1:100, not 1:1000 (note: these are real odds, betting involves extra risks and on bet itself here margin is thin enough to make betting useless for profiting on it)

But there's still surely a 5% or 10% chance that someone other than Trump gets sworn in next, I would think.

seems huge overestimate and I would bet money against it (up to 1:100 odds, counting transaction costs and risks)

Are you aware that people defended what Hamas did on 7th October?

And that their main tactic is randomly firing rockets into general area and suicide bombings?

Why you think that pre-teen child soldiers would phase them of all things?

Why using children as soldiers would be treated as worse than murdering children and celebrating it?

yet I could find zero evidence from any organization that Hamas utilized pre-teen child soldiers in the past decade

which steps you have taken in this?

Most of the easily-accessible coal and oil have been depleted.

offset by known locations of some remaining, some in progress mining operations being left and technology being invented already

Modern farming and transportation would be destroyed

not all of it, enough to bounce back

very possibly leading to Malthusian living conditions and a lack of leisure time necessary to rebuild the machines and infrastructure that we know are possible

seems dubious, but it is unverifiable and there is no known way to verify it

Within a few generations, most of the practical knowledge necessary to build complex machinery, etc., would be lost completely.

seems extremely dubious, I would buy utterly losing CPU production... But outright losing most machinery production? It is not SO hard to bootstrap when you are motivated, knowledge exists and world heavily fragmented. At least somewhere you will have people going to rebuild. And that is even if someone went omnicidal stupid and nuked say Peru and Keyna instead of finishing their main rival. Just to spite survivors.

It also seems likely to me that in the aftermath of a large-scale nuclear war, many of the most intelligent people would be dead

many of [insert group] would be dead, for nearly all descriptions

but even with selective death of top 40% of most intelligent/hard working/insert descriptor here survivors would rebuild. I think that you underestimate resilience of humanity (or maybe I overestimate)

Nice, fedposting, consensus building and stupid rolled in one.

Not entirely sure is it trolling or genuinely advocating for civil war. And unsure which one would be sadder.

he? I thought that Deiseach is a woman.

Why you expect it to be a high risk? Even if Russia would nuke Berlin and Warsaw - then USA, France and UK would not nuke Moscow back.

And reaction would be likely strong enough (China would join) ensuring that Russia will not nuke NATO countries or even Ukraine, as benefits is not there.

And if Putin/Biden/Kamala/Trump would be insane enough to launch full scale attack... There is not much we can do with that.

It doesn’t get nearly as much as attention as it should, here or elsewhere

Maybe because when I seen it, it was in "Russia has nukes, we must satisfy all their demands" form which does not encourage treating it seriously.

existential crisis

Even full scale use of all nuclear devices would not cause end of civilisation: it would cripple it and set us 50-100-200, maybe 300 years back and kill billions - but would not end existence of humanity.

Yes, people claiming that we have enough nukes to kill all humanity were stupid and/or lying.

We would eventually get to the point where a loaf of bread is a million dollars.

At that point you replace old dollar by new dollar at 1 000 000:1 and continue.

Not sure has it happened to dollar already at some point, but it was done for many currencies.

Or print banknotes starting from 1 (million in small print) to say 500 (million in small print).

Though say Germany and Canada are clearly on "really avoid" side.

While say France and USA is far from ideal but they at least achieve something.

Note than Europe it has not progressed beyond vibes and campaign promises. Still, progress that politician promise to build nuclear rather than promising to strangle nuclear.

had a flood around the same time which looked about equally bad to the NC pictures I'm seeing

I would care mostly population affected, not comparing cherry picked pictures when comparing how many people died.

the European flood

Note that similar area was affected in 1997 floods. Wrocław (major city in area affected by heavy rants) was not flooded this thanks to new dam/polder build after 1997 floods. During 1997 it was catastrophically flooded.

Case where people actually managed to learn from history.

And this region has decent experience and equipment for dealing with floods. It is THE primary natural catastrophe expected to happen here.

I was actually uncertain whether that particular portion of the book was Banks critiquing the Culture/minds for prosecuting a war despite being well aware of the costs it would incur, OR he was actually making a small jab at bleeding-heart liberals who want to enact change in the world but can't stand getting their hands even a bit bloody.

why not both at once?

see https://acoup.blog/2020/04/24/fireside-friday-april-24-2020/ starting from

was there post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the ancient (or medieval) world? And I’m going to tilt at that particular question here in a fireside in part because the absence of evidence doesn’t quite make for a riveting collections post and arguments from silence must always be cautious.

I feel sad that I am not getting this joke :(

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wins_Above_Replacement helped a bit

I would consider deliberate mass murder combined with being an oppressive corrupt empire as worse than treating cretinous well intended idea too seriously and predictably becoming an oppressive corrupt empire.

Germans entirely deliberately planned to oppress/murder others, as a goal. While Russians were more selective (a bit) and it was not entirely whole point. I guess that puts Aztecs also above Third Reich for me.

Not sure where to put Mao, this level of murderous incompetence and tyrany is quite unique and whole class by itself.

(not that I rate USSR high, just a bit above Nazi Germany and Aztecs)

Note that "empire more evil than" is distinct from "caused most damage overall". Unless you go with some strict variant of ultrautilitarianism.

Aztecs killed far less people, but they remain strong contender to be more evil. Maybe in a quite tragic way as they actually believed own religion.

Similarly, nazi Germany is in my opinion more evil than USSR.

If you count overall damage and count all communists as one competitor, then yes they caused most damage overall.

Thanks! More than expected, but still too low to make "outlawing TVs and bookshelves over a certain size will reliably save the lives of several hundred young children each year" true (as it will not fully eliminate such deaths)

Still, "among the most evil empires in history" is far more fitting than "Certainly there has never been an empire more evil than Communism."

I have never heard anyone seriously propose bookshelf safety measures.

some reasonable ones are done by producers (many of mine come with stickers/instructions to attach them to wall rather leave freestanding, exactly to reduce risk of failing)

outlawing TVs and bookshelves over a certain size will reliably save the lives of several hundred young children each year who are killed when furniture falls on them

several hundred? really? Even worldwide that is surprisingly high (and outlawing large furniture would likely result in more stacked furniture more likely to fall anyway)

What is kind of hilarious, because while they had some part of brilliance overall performance was bad. Unless you care primarily about murdering Jews.

Hmm, maybe it is actual the most important metric for functor? That would explain why he claims that IDF is not competent at war.

Massive amount of ads is enshittifying, therefore I am using workarounds banned by their terms of use, therefore they can block or ban me.

In general nearly all enshittifying is perfectly legal and can be done by companies doing this.