United States overthrew their government
not USA
then they pressured them to be more and more militant towards Russia
I would say that Russia invading was stronger factor here
while arming them to the teeth
I wish, sadly it was not really done
after the invasion Boris Johnson scotched the potential peace deal
Somehow I doubt that Ukrainians were enthusiastic about Budapest Memorandum 2.0 no matter what Boris did.
And Russian proposals were bonkers and were effectively "can you dismantle your army so it will be easier to invade"?
then NATO law makers procrastinated for 9 months before sending any of significant armaments they promised
By April 2022 Poland send more than 200 tanks (240 from what I remember). And Mig-29 fighters (after doing it officially collapsed they were transferred as "spare parts", confidentially in large enough numbers to assemble some new planes). I could dig more for sources but 240 tanks counts as counterexample, you are not as well informed as you think on this topic.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
This is a possibility, but people like that don't tend to be effete accountants whose most prominent vice is gambling. He self evidently didn't have the low inhibitions that type of person typically displays.
"don't tend to be" does not mean "cannot be" and people for various reasons blow up lives own and of others.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Is large illegal arms deal supposed to be better squaring with the rest of his life history?
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
It creates a large revanchist pressure group that will be spoiling to drag Poland into a war with Russia.
they are selected for "we run away from war", and for "fuck Russia" part there will be no to little disagreement
no idea why they would activate after Ukraine loses (and I guess that if they want they could go to East as partisans)
Which is true
nope, it is not
It is Russia who invaded because they could not accept not being a superpower anymore
alternative (helping Russia to be superpower or pretending it is) would be worse
Banderite groups throughout Europe in the late 2020s and early 2030s
what would be even motive, reasoning and strategy here?
Probably using leftover NATO weaponry.
Which one? Because it ranges from "utterly impractical in covert terrorism" and "they had it already" with side of "trying to do MH17 will end with partitioning your country if you are Ukraine, not Russia".
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art38269511-sondaz-wobec-uchodzcow-z-ukrainy-niechetne-sa-glownie-mlode-kobiety is a very quick example (I remember nice data analysis, cannot find it but effect clearly exists)
among polled - young woman rated in 48% as bad/very bad, 44% as good/very good.
In full population: 57% positive, 30% negative.
(before anyone compares it directly with other countries: Poles love to complain, what is visible also in positive/negative polls - while say Brazilians will give inflated positive answers)
where my understanding is women are more accepting of immigration than men.
And where it is typically men who who migrate and compete with men.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Do you have specific predictions in which way it will go wrong?
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
languages are pretty close to mutually intelligible
close to but not mutually intelligible
pretty much all women and children
And among Polish women (who are more likely to compete with new people) acceptance of Ukrainians is markedly lower
they’d assimilate pretty well
so far it goes relatively well
note that "some ethnic tensions" is from perspective of place that had none of them, where violence/racial/ethnic tension are far, far, far below USA ones and so on
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Russia can just use conscripts to defend their own soil
we will see whether this will work out
so far it featured one of deadliest strikes in this war, with one of columns massacred
Poland welcomed $BIGNUM Ukrainians while having limited enthusiasm about other migrants and being poorer than Germany, Sweden and UK and therefore migrants themselves preferring to go elsewhere?
Note also border wall and illegal pushbacks of migrants imported by Łukaszenko and Putin (with illegality ignored by basically everyone, including EU).
Is anyone calling for cutting out sub-Saharan Africans or MENA migrants
EU is busy bribing countries in north Africa and Turkey so they will apply violence to keep migrants out.
"net positive" does not eliminate ethnic tensions, especially in country that used to be monolingual and monoethic.
For start, there are some people who lost on the changes or at least perceive themselves as losing or just hate that someone else benefitted more than them.
And there are some conflicts but more of "call with speaker enabled in train" rather than "create organised rape gang and blackmail police for years". Still, induces nonzero ethnic tensions what is noticeable when we used to have basically none.
For example https://konfederacja.pl/ (party on right, with most significant enti-EU, for free market, pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine, with bunch of clowns but has enough support to be elected) has constant anti-Ukrainian content, including attacking people in Poland.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
What is pathetic is that the same people are praising this incursion as a good idea who have been trying to convince everyone for many months that the war will definitely be won in a short time
this sets are not the same
and in category "who can find more egregious bad takes" side that can use Russian MoD official statements is likely to win
and if anyone claims that this "war will definitely be won in a short time" then they should be ignored as stupid and/or propagandist
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Nobody claimed IQ is single causal variable
Are you sure? Seems to me that https://www.themotte.org/post/1116/transnational-thursday-for-august-8-2024/239006?context=8#context did this
Having communism (IQ denying ideology) lowers your country prosperity for future decades.
"IQ denying ideology" not sure has this problem existed there at all, and it was not actual source of problems
and r-word accusations
"Are you new to this forum? DNA IQ." seems quite clear "racism is right", at least I see no real difference
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Because the question is not factual. It's a "does this dress make me look fat" type of question. The good answer is what they want to hear.
nope
discussing how to tackle say corruption and overregulation can be interesting and fruitful discussion
rather than racist uninformed dismissal
Even if you tweak hard race definition to match current wealth of various areas it would completely fail how and why some areas got much richer within last decades (for example no matter how much you try you will NOT explain East Europe purely by "DNA IQ")
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Note: it remains to be seen how Ukrainian migrants/refugees will work out long term in for example Poland. Now we are up a bit from "literally zero ethnic tensions", but still relatively low on overall scale.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
And if one assumes an ugly grind, then it is better for it to take place in Russia. If fighting will involve artillery, glide bombs and drones turning towns and villages into ruins - then doing it on the other side of border seems preferable.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Even if partially true it would not be entire answer. And would be among harder to change so is not a good answer to this question anyway.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
I am a finance professional as you guessed correctly. I make sure our markets stay functioning smoothly which has positive knock on effects elsewhere
No, it is more likely that you engage in parasitising on actually useful industries, do thinly veiled hazard or legally steal money.
Yes, some parts of financial sector are useful, but judging from your hutzpah I guess that you are engaging in Enron-type activities.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
The fun possibility: we might get a SCOTUS Avignon papacy, with two SCOTUSes sitting separately ruling each other illegal, with neither side being determined enough to take violent kinetic action
Note that it recently more-or-less happened in Poland.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
I am confused how it changes things. You listed bunch of possible beliefs and implied that there are no other options. I mentioned some other possibilities.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
"most" is likely overstating things unless you count taxes as part of regulations. There are also other reasons.
40% for regulation, 30% for taxes, 30% for literally everything else is likely still giving too much credit for regulation.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Most regulations don't have obvious effects. But the cumulative effects are glaring. The living standards in Europe are lower than most US states. They have a permanent unemployment rate that is about double the US. European citizens that manage to move to the US can immediately get large increases in their effective base salaries. In addition to enjoying lower tax rates.
note that (over)regulation is not the only thing causing such results
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
Serious question: does Europe understand that regulations have costs?
European Union treats regulation like great adventure rather than necessary evil.
plus Europe tends to set fines at ruinously expensive levels
This one makes sense if you want regulation to be enforced. Alternatives are fining Microsoft less than they earn in one second.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
I read it as a claim that includes at least typical modern men.
spiky_fungus
1mo ago
for me answer seems "both"
basically Russia found way to get their murders: just threaten to murder more people if you will not get them back! (see Navalny)
move to less insane area?
More options
Context Copy link