philosoraptor
No bio...
User ID: 285
philosoraptor
1yr ago
I mean, there's tricky questions (both practical and philosophical) about what probability statements even mean when we're talking about singular events. But that doesn't change the fact that (a) they do sometimes help us make useful predictions, at least in the aggregate, and (b) there's a tolerably clear sense in which Silver was less wrong than someone who had Trump at 1%.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
Reporters don’t typically have the statistical training to understand the intricacies of concepts like “correlated errors”, so all they saw was an election nerd trying to make headlines by scaring Democrats into thinking the election was closer than it really was. They too were eventually forced to eat their words when Trump won.
I mostly remember them doubling down and implying that Silver was somehow super-extra-wrong and had lost credibility by saying Trump had only a 30% chance... never mind that most other pollsters were much further off (many had it more like 1%) and didn't get the same treatment.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
"Radical feminist" doesn't just mean "strong feminist", it refers to people like Firestone or for a relatively low-key example Greer who root their feminism precisely in biological differences between the sexes (and tend to find current trans ideology repulsive and/or incoherent as a result, thus the TERF abbreviation). It could not be further from the truth to say they are unwilling to consider biological differences. Though it would be nearly as far from the truth to suggest they're a significant part of the "woke" social movement you're deploring.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
said any of the times he went to visit France he was treated better when he spoke English than when he spoke French with a Quebecois accent.
The reverse is at least sometimes true as well. I've had a French-as-in-from-France friend-of-friends complain that when she visited Quebec, people kept telling her, obviously meaning it as an insult, that she didn't speak French.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
most or second most populous
Second, behind Ontario, and it's not remotely close.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
What does Google have to do with it? How would having multiple viable search engines encourage adding links to sources that, for one thing, don't go through any of them?
philosoraptor
1yr ago
Okay, seems weird to me, and I'm reasonably sure that's not how it would work here, but clearly there's settled law on this in the US. TIL.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
One thing, or rather a couple closely related things, I don't understand. If Carter left the union, how would she still fall under their CBA, and why would they be expected to represent her? Seems like she wanted to have her cake and eat it too. These are exactly the things she'd be voluntarily giving up by choosing not to be part of the union.
Honestly I'm surprised leaving the union is even something you *can *do at SWA - most workplaces I'm familiar with are either unionized or they're not, and in the former case you either belong to the union or you don't work there. Or maybe that statement was misleading? What exactly is meant by "had left the union several years prior" here?
Okay, MtG rules are my wheelhouse, including early ones as well as current ones. Hyperion is more correct than not, but not quite there.
Very early in the game's history there was an "ante" rule where each player was supposed to set aside the top card of their deck at the beginning of the game and the winner kept all the ante cards. As he mentions there were even a few cards that interacted with this, say by forcing the opponent to ante an additional card, or anteing one yourself as an extra cost for a very powerful effect.
It was dropped very early on, not so much due to "playground fights" as because it (a) was incredibly unpopular, and (b) raised concerns about gambling laws in some jurisdictions, or at least WotC was worried that it might. The latter was the main reason WotC cited for removing it. It is still in the rulebook but is very heavily deprecated, and the use of ante (and the cards that directly interact with it) is banned in all sanctioned tournaments and has been for something like 95-97% of the game's history at this point.
I don't think it was framed as optional in the earliest rulebooks, though in my experience it was treated that way in practice. It certainly is optional now, and the clear default is to not use it. Though it's redundant, the rulebook also bans it where prohibited by law.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
Heck, add a stripe of a second colour and you're talking millions.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
I think he's just raising it as a hypothetical. I agree it's not realistic in the slightest, though for a different albeit related reason - I just think it would be wildly out of character for Trump.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
Known bug, I think. Larian says patch 2 is on its way fairly soon and will focus more on bug fixes of this general sort.
Murphy's responses make a lot more sense if you assume that her true objections to the sex industry are really borne out of an aesthetic or disgust aversion, and specifically only when men are the patrons.
Okay, not the most substantive point but this error, which seemed to be pretty rare at one time, is everywhere lately and it drives me nuts. "Borne" is not a fancy alternate spelling of "born", as many people seem to have suddenly concluded. It's a different word with a different meaning ("carried", more or less). You could say, for example, that Murphy's responses are "borne up by a mighty wind of righteous indignation", or something like that, though that does seem a bit purple for either Yassine or myself now that I read back over it. But in this case the word you want is just "born".
philosoraptor
1yr ago
Well, in philosophy people act like that's true but I'm not convinced it actually is. Can't speak to any other field with any real authority.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
With the sheer number of Ph.Ds being minted in comparison to the number of available positions, I doubt spousal hiring hurts the quality of research or teaching much. You won't optimize, but you'll still get someone pretty good.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
Well, SMH only said a cock, not your cock...
philosoraptor
1yr ago
Or telling an American in 1980 that 10 years later, the USSR would no longer exist.
They'd almost certainly be neither surprised nor happy about this, because the assumption would be that a nuclear war had taken place. People seem to have completely forgotten the grip that threat had on the culture around that time.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
puts a lot more sugar in absolutely everything than any other country in the developed world
Mostly HFCS, actually, as I understand it.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
If this took place in 2021, it didn't involve anything recognizable as the AIs people are currently concerned about.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
... context?
Tell Gdanning that, please. Most of his posts lately seem to be nothing but a lot of words to say "I didn't read the post I'm replying to". It's obnoxious and infuriating and hard to believe it could be in good faith and I can't judge anyone too harshly for this kind of reaction. Just because it's superficially more polite (although even that gets borderline at times!) doesn't make it higher quality.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
Not as useless as repeating the exact point she and I have already addressed multiple times, completely ignoring everything either of us said about it.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
You never say whether certain criteria are necessary, or sufficient, or both, or neither.
Yes, because that is the question that's at issue! The OP was, I thought, completely clear on this point, then in the direct reply to you she said this explicitly. You even say yourself:
You talk about whether X can be "the criterion" or Y can be "the criterion"
Well, yes. How is it not clear that this is the question she's raising, not one she has a worked out answer to? What else would someone you'd describe that way be trying to do? This honestly seems like basic reading comprehension to me.
philosoraptor
1yr ago
All the talk in Dec Jan 2021-2022 was of making lockdowns semi-permanent and ramping up the vaccine passport system ever further to crush dissent.
A small percentage of the talk in places like this, maybe. This certainly wasn't a widespread, mainstream idea, much less a dominant one.
More to the point neither one directly states support for YEC claims other than the narrow point about human evolution, so reading either one as "X% support for YEC" is running ahead of the evidence. (Even if we assume these polls directly measure people's literal beliefs, which per jeroboam, they probably don't.) Elsewhere in the thread, results from polls that did directly ask about the age of the Earth have been mentioned that got much lower numbers (30% at most, less if you change the wording of the question a little).
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