johnfabian
1mo ago
it's not even that ludicrous - Bohemia actually sent an offer to the Ottomans to become a vassal of theirs (Utraquism of course being closer in spirit to Sunni Islam than Catholicism) just before they got crushed at White Mountain.
johnfabian
1mo ago
Yeah the writing has been a little less coherent, the satirical/comedic elements a little less tight. It's been a step down but not a massive one.
My biggest fear though was that they would just spool this out forever but the show seems to be quite forthright in charging through the plot.
johnfabian
1mo ago
I've just watched episodes 3 and 4 last night. I don't think season 2 has been as strong, but I'm still enjoying it and it's generating lots of discussion.
One of the bigger gripes I do have with the season so far is that I think the hard narrative cut between Episode 3 and Episode 4 was weird, but the quality of the episodes have been great in my opinion.
A friend of mine thinks there might be some period of time chronologically between the end of episode 3 and episode 4 that will be filled in with future episodes. He might be right, this has been a narrative trick the show has used previously. Because it is very jarring.
johnfabian
1mo ago
Of course the problem is the creative team knows to say they have a plan even if they don't. There's been a long history of people assuring the public they have a plan for their films/tv/book series and then... not.
johnfabian
1mo ago
Time for another tv recommendation: Severance. In my opinion it's the first show in a while that quality-wise stands among the other greats of the "golden age of television"; or at least it has done so far. It has an interesting combination of dark comedy, satire, character work, and philosophical introspection with a heaping dose of mystery. If you're unaware what the show is about or have heard nothing about it, here's a teaser; I wouldn't seek out more for fear of spoilers.
It was a long, long gap between seasons 1 and 2 (the former aired near the end of 2022, the latter is airing now). But it's the first sort of "appointment viewing" for me and my friends in a while, and we've decided to get together as a group every other week or so and watch the new episodes. It's nice to experience these things with other people and it's the kind of show that very much benefits from group discussion/reflection.
johnfabian
1mo ago
This doesn't really get at the heart of Soviet casualties - it might be true that in attacking a certain specific fortified position the attacker will take more casualties than the defender, but in a modern war where armies have great strategic mobility and the combat power of a given corps/army/army group etc. is sourced from vulnerable rear areas, an attacker that has the initiative has the potential to achieve lopsided victories. This is what the Germans did to the Soviets in 1941, and likewise what the Soviets returned to the Germans in later 1944-45. A third of the German war dead (1.5 million) came in the final four months of the war when the Soviets were able to fully turn the tables and inflict disproportionate losses on them.
The purges had left the Red Army in a state completely unfit for fighting a modern war, and so the Red Army was essentially almost wholly destroyed twice: first in June-July and then again in September-October 1941. From that point on it was such a desperate struggle for survival that the Soviet Union essentially had little time to try to rebuild or improve its institutional knowledge with respect to fighting a modern war. Every element of Soviet warfighting was massively deficient, essentially up until the operational pauses in early 1944 where after they had recovered enough territory (and suffered such horrendous casualties in the process) that they were able/forced to devote serious time and attention to overhauling their approaches to all elements of the war.
Probably the most egregious: at the beginning of Wacht Am Rhein, the Germans had designated 1 SS Panzer Corps as the key breakthrough unit on the northern flank of the Ardennes offensive. It was the most fabulously and extravagantly equipped formation in the Wehrmacht at the time by far: 2 SS panzer divisions, 2 Volksgrenadier divisions, a parachute division, as well as two additional armoured battlegroups. It had been the chief beneficiary of Germany's last great spurt of industrial production (contrary to intuition, German war production peaked in 1944). It was the force meant to spearhead the charge through Allied lines and seize Antwerp. Facing it was only a single American infantry division that was brand new to the ETO and only had five of its 9 infantry battalions. It had been placed in this part of the line because it was thought to be safe from attack.
The German attack failed. The Volksgrenadier divisions didn't get anywhere on the first day, so on the second the panzer divisions (which were being held for the breakthrough) were added in, but they didn't make any progress either. And then by that time reinforcements were flowing in and the next week of fighting ended in stalemate. It's kind of amusing to me that some people try to play the "what if?" game with the Battle of the Bulge because never had a German attack had such a local superiority in force and failed so spectacularly, and right at the start of the offensive too.
johnfabian
1mo ago
Not that it wasn't coming eventually, but Germany also declared war on the US even though it was under no obligation to. And that is of course after adding the Soviet Union to the coalition.
johnfabian
2mo ago
If you're going to be pedantic, I would point out that there absolutely was a place called Czechoslovakia when Germans were expelled from it.
johnfabian
2mo ago
From time to time I'm reminded of this quote from Orwell's essay "The Lion and the Unicorn: Socialism and English Genius":
What this war has demonstrated is that private capitalism, that is, an economic system in which land, factories, mines and transport are owned privately and operated solely for profit—does not work. It cannot deliver the goods. This fact had been known to millions of people for years past, but nothing ever came of it, because there was no real urge from below to alter the system, and those at the top had trained themselves to be impenetrably stupid on just this point. Argument and propaganda got one nowhere. The lords of property simply sat on their bottoms and proclaimed that all was for the best. Hitler's conquest of Europe, however, was a physical debunking of capitalism. War, for all its evil, is at any rate an unanswerable test of strength, like a try-your-grip machine. Great strength returns the penny, and there is no way of faking the result.
When the nautical screw was first invented, there was a controversy that lasted for years as to whether screw-steamers or paddle-steamers were better. The paddle-steamers, like all obsolete things, had their champions, who supported them by ingenious arguments. Finally, however, a distinguished admiral tied a screw-steamer and a paddle steamer of equal horse-power stern to stern and set their engines running. That settled the question once and for all. And it was something similar that happened on the fields of Norway and of Flanders. Once and for all it was proved that a planned economy is stronger than a planless one.
He wrote this in July 1940, in the midst of the Blitz. With the stunning battlefield defeats of the Allies in the west, and the division of the east between the Soviets and Germans, it certainly seemed that liberalism (and capitalism along with it) was Done For. One can not exactly blame Orwell for this sentiment, given that he was enduring bombing raids while writing it; it would seem rather axiomatic. Of course the next five years showed that liberal, capitalist countries were far superior at fighting total wars than their autocratic contemporaries, and when pushed to the brink were endlessly more evolutionarily fit.
I'm a liberal. I am unashamedly so, even if I am certainly ashamed of how liberal democracies have conducted themselves by and large these past few decades (post-1991, to put a point on it). I would not count liberalism out yet. It has survived through far worse periods. It managed after Carlsbad, after the failures of 1848, the nadir of World War II, the spread of communism during the Cold War. Each time it has eventually triumphed as the dominant political ideology. This isn't to say that it won't collapse on itself eventually, or that it has been found decidedly wanting in recent crises, but I think it is far too soon to count it out yet.
johnfabian
2mo ago
Before there was a good (and widespread) understanding of what determined prices, trade seemed very little different from witchcraft.
How is it possible that a merchant will buy your wheat at a given price, but when he takes it to the city he sells it for three times as much??? What magick spells has he conjured?
johnfabian
2mo ago
I think it is highly probable such programs are already well underway in secret. Certainly it makes little sense for Russia to sink so much money and effort into building its new generation nuclear weapons and delivery systems (that are very obviously meant to be a counter to a missile shield) unless they think there is serious potential the United States might actually realize it. And this work has been going on for a while now, such that they've even been able to test some of them against Ukraine (the new hypersonic ballistic missiles)
johnfabian
2mo ago
I think you're underestimating how extraordinary recent Japanese history has been. In 1868 Japan was a feudal state with almost no modern technology or contact with the outside world. Within 4 decades it defeated a European great power in a major war. It went from 1200s England to 1900s England in the span of two generations.
Then after the entire country was reduced to ash and much of a generation killed in WWII, within three decades it was the world's second-largest economy. These are the kind of rapid, massive transformations that seem impossible were it not to have happened.
johnfabian
2mo ago
I think it's also extremely narrow-minded to assume that intelligence will manifest itself in certain expected outcomes, with the benefit of hindsight. Even if one were to toss the notion of cultural and societal differences entirely out the window, from a purely material standpoint Japan and Britain are very different beyond the superficial similarity of them being island nations.
johnfabian
2mo ago
Lots of "leftists" and actual leftists (i.e. people following an ideology derived of Marx or Bakunin) oppose new building done for-profit. That means big corps, small landlords, whomever. If it is for-profit, it is exploitative. They say that building some big new apartment building isn't going to make housing more affordable, it's just more money for landlords and developers. And if it's city housing or low-income or whatever, they'll protest that it's not the right neighbourhood, of course it's a great idea but not here, there are heritage concerns, etc.
If you go to into community development meeting you will see these types. Very often they own multi-million dollar homes.
johnfabian
2mo ago
Currently reading Prit Buttar's two-part history of the siege of Leningrad. I now have many tragic anecdotes about people starving to death. Also have several very funny anecdotes about people starving to death.
johnfabian
3mo ago
he could very well be an upset midlife-crisis type too
johnfabian
3mo ago
I wonder how those Jewish scientists all ended up in America. Presumably some elaborate conspiracy.
johnfabian
3mo ago
Following in the footsteps of the other famous American driven to be an outlaw by healthcare costs.
johnfabian
3mo ago
It's not often you see a movie that has an entirely novel concept, especially as a courtroom drama which is one of the most done-to-death formats.
johnfabian
3mo ago
johnfabian
3mo ago
Someone like MLK would fit much better as a Civ leader - he's much more obviously a political leader, and he fits a similar tradition in Civ games of giving prominent leaders of social movements a spot as Civ leaders (most notably Gandhi).
johnfabian
3mo ago
- For busses, you could require everyone enter through the front door and pass such a barrier there. While we have seen a lot of AI systems fail spectacularly, I feel "detecting people entering through the rear doors of the bus and telling the bus driver to wait until they have validated their tickets" should be well within the realm of the doable.
Having everyone enter through the front of the bus is bad because it slows the travel time of the bus considerably and also makes it more of an interference to other traffic. Minimizing stopped time is very important for effective transit.
The better strategy is just very visible and frequent fare enforcement. Teams of inspectors rove the bus lines and bust people for not paying, in a very visible and obvious and shaming way. Yeah maybe you still have serial cheats or whatever but you get average people to think there are consequences and more importantly not feel like they're a sucker for paying a fare.
johnfabian
3mo ago
I would be hesitant to overexplain this as some grand global struggle; I think this is 90% personality politics and the rest is just the cherry on the top. Trudeau seems to be a very bad man-manager: he's had Freeland, as his #2, eat shit for him on a number of different files. For the past two weeks his office has been leaking stories to various newspapers undermining her. He told her on Friday via zoom that she was going to be replaced as Finance Minister, but oh, before you go, on Monday can you deliver our fall economic statement (that we've delayed for two months)? Oh yes, it shows we have a $60+ billion deficit and we've totally blown past the "fiscal guardrails" we had promised. But once that's done and you've humiliated yourself for me one more time we'll shuffle you to a less-visible cabinet position and maybe you won't lose your seat in the next election in what is supposed to be a safe Liberal seat.
Freeland predictably told him to go fuck yourself. Her public letter announcing her resignation (while also admitting she was getting fired) was pretty scathing as far as these things go. To do it on the day you were supposed to give the long-delayed economic update for the country was as pretty direct a knife to the guts as you can do as Finance Minister. I don't think Trudeau will make it to February.
I would note that this is both a very high number (almost certainly an overestimate) for Mao's body count and similarly a rather large undercount of WWII's, which is pretty conventionally estimated at ~70-75 million.
I think it would be worth softening the language here.
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