But I wouldn't be surprised to see something relatively weak, third trimester with rape/incest exceptions or something. With a decent Republican lead in the Senate and probably a small lead in the house, there's at least a chance.
I can't see Democratic senators skipping the filibuster on an abortion ban, Republicans not having three or four Senators flake if the rest of the Republicans try to nuke the filibuster over it, and then there's the lawsuits. The 2003 Partial Birth Abortion Ban had a third of the Dem Senate cross over to get passed, as a comparison.
That said, I think there are stronger examples. At the regulatory level, I'd expect to see the EMTALA abortion rule nixed, either by the Trump admin removing the rule and/or refusing to support it, and there's a variety of funding levers that can get tweaked (at least until the APA challenge) even if 'officially' no Medicaid money was supposed to have gone to abortion. There's likely to be a lot changed on trans matters, whether through judicial avenues (Skrmetti's getting heard in December, but there's a number of follow-up cases slotted in) or regulatory ones (compare the Dear Colleague letter volleyball). College debt delays and forgiveness might not have survived judicial review moving forward, but they're definitely not going to survive a Trump admin.
And there's a lot of stuff on this sorta path in a variety of spheres. Some of them are unlikely for structural reasons -- a lot of people have tried to pull Project 2025's radfem porn opposition as likely to result in active prosecutions or financial chicanery that the Trump admin just won't be able to pull the DoJ or CFPB into focusing on -- but most of them much more plausible. Sometimes just because the Biden admin made such hilariously aggressive rules, and these people are upset that they're going to lose the benefits of them. But that's still a thing with impact.
gattsuru
1mo ago
They’ve since added an optional (hold Control) ‘world grid’ to Satisfactory, which helps a lot with alignment. But it definitely does get overwhelming still, and not a problem specific to just this game: Manufactio and Space Engineers struggle a lot because of it.
gattsuru
1mo ago
I'd recommend it even if renting: bathroom fans in particular are pretty prone to get clogged with random junk. And even without a fire, the reduced airflow from lint can be enough to promote mold in bathrooms if you take showers often. Landlord should take care of it between renters, but there's a lot of space between should and did.
Even hand-cleaning with a wire-brush-on-a-stick is pretty effective. Just be sure to hit the inlet at the drier, the outlet where it exhausts, and then run an empty no-heat cycle on the drier for a couple minutes -- a lot of people clean out the side nearest the drier heavily, and then get surprised that the outlet gets clogged.
gattsuru
1mo ago
I'd be pretty surprised. There are gay frats, and not just in the explicitly LGBTQWTFBBQ sense, but SAE neither advertises itself nor has a reputation along those lines, at least from what I can see as someone not hugely familiar with frat life. And Salisbury is a pretty tiny school to start with; the statistics would only give around 50-100ish gay (or bisexual) men across campus in total.
gattsuru
1mo ago
NBC News has reached out to attorneys for Aird and Leinemann. The others had no attorney information listed. All of the students were released this week on recognizance bonds, except Pietuszka who has his bond hearing Friday.
The Baltimore Banner:
Attorney James L. Britt said the alleged victim is a man in his 40s who propositioned what he thought was a 16-year-old. “Once all of the facts see the light of day, this case will be shown to be an ill-advised attempt to expose someone willing to travel to have sexual relations with a 16-year-old child,” he wrote in an email.
I don't particularly trust any news media or defense attorneys (and their clients), and even if they were being honest there's a lot of ways for people to have tried to portray their character as 16 and failed, but if true, it's not sounding like a Romeo and Romeo sorta situation. And given SAE's reputation, I expect their students would not be especially unfamiliar with the local laws regarding age of consent.
gattsuru
1mo ago
Washington State has another 1.3m, Oregon and Colorado 0.6m, Arizona 1.2m, Maryland and Illinois and Utah 0.5m. I think Trump still (somehow!) wins the popular vote if the late ballots follow state-wide trends, and even if they're pretty blue, it's still either a win or so close as to be a tie. It's just not likely that total turnout is that much lower than the 2020 election as today's highlights suggest.
gattsuru
1mo ago
At least if I'm reading things correctly, that's 10M currently counted, for a total of around 17.25m ballots cast, and 7.25m remaining uncounted. 58% of that would be ~4.1m, but between county breakdowns and mail-ins breaking more toward Dem in general I'd guess 5m is a lot more reasonable minimum, giving a 12.5-6.5m split in the final vote count for the state. That'd be pretty comparable in final result to the 2020 11m-6m.
gattsuru
1mo ago
Yes. I'd expect a minimum of 5m additional ballots for Harris from California alone to trickle in over the next week or so. This problem was one (of many) big flaws in the 2012 GOP post-mortem: early numbers for the popular vote are always wrong.
gattsuru
1mo ago
It'll take California a week to finish accepting, nevermind finish counting, their votes, and there's probably around 8m uncounted in that one state alone, of which Harris can probably expect around 5m. I don't want to bet that final turnout matches exactly, but even if below, it's not gonna be so far that simple 'reduced enthusiasm and less remote voting' is outside of the realm of plausibility or even reasonability.
((Now, whether there's fraud in California is a different question, and one I can't really promise. Probably not unusual levels this year.))
gattsuru
1mo ago
My tumblr timeline has looks like this, and that's overlooking a number of sub-1k reblogs (why hello, kawaii-guillotine, it's almost been a month since we last met); people in one (moderately trans) FFXIV Discord are considering Signal and in one case moving out of Texas (... to Canada, and no one wants to point out how rough that'd be), both real-life lefties and the Quilt Discord are wargaming out how to fight the inevitable Trump 3rd Election in 2028. I haven't look at PopeHat-sphere BlueSky world, and I'm not sure I want to.
Some of that's laughable, but there are a number of pretty deep policy disagreements, often ones that have a pretty wide potential impact for people. I'd hope that the GOP anti-abortion and anti-trans swings aren't so aggressive as to hit these people where it hurts, but I'm not optimistic, since even if MacIntyre-style revenge didn't take a foothold, most Republicans just don't know the material well enough to give caution. Meanwhile, the organizations that do have burned any trust that they might once have had.
((Maybe Elon Musk manages to turn the 4chan-style prescriptive heterosexuality into a part of the post-Christian Right... but I wouldn't be money on it.))
Likewise, there's a lot of (I hope) joking about the filibuster and court packing. Most of it's from people who are joking, but it's neither a great look nor a good policy.
That said, while I don't like people rubbing it in for most of the just-weirdos or just-left-normies (or even, despite my disagreements with him, Trace), some of the more assholish parts of the Fuck You Righties movement have earned what they've gotten. Vibes, papers, essays have definitely made a comeback as comebacks; the disappearance of The Young Turks its own statement, as has the complete failure of the political advertising system. The Bulwark is pretty likely to eat itself, or be consumed.
Haven't seen many great zingers, yet. For the most part, just repeating days or hours ago, or showing THIS IS WHAT MSNBC REALLY BELIEVES is as or more effective.
gattsuru
1mo ago
USB specifications are an absolute clusterfuck. USB4 does not mandate any level of PD support, USB-the-cable-spec requires only 500 mA at 5v, and devices that support USB4 don't have to guarantee DisplayPort Alt Mode (which runs almost all USB->DisplayPort and USB->HDMI interface; there is an HDMI Alt Mode spec but I have literally never seen anyone promising to use it, nevermind any actual products that use it) on every (or even any) interface.
If you were buying a specific television for this specific purpose, you might be able to get it to work, but at least from a quick google, I wouldn't want to bet on even that. Nearly everything I could find in a quick google was marketed as a monitor and capping out around 40". It's easier to find MHL televisions, despite the spec being nearly dead, than USB-DP televisions.
gattsuru
1mo ago
There'll definitely be a campaign post-mortem -- this election is nearly as bad for them as 2012 for Republicans, and probably worse than Dukakis -- but the question of what is gonna be harder, because there's both a massive amount of blame to go around, and a massive variety of explanations and excuses, and there's a lot of the progressive sphere's decision-making apparatus that both deserves and desperately doesn't want to show up anywhere but the 'acknowledgements' page of that post-mortem.
Worst case, full Joy Reid: GOP votes were because of disinformation, minority voters are self-hating and/or disenfranchised, the working class in ungrateful for the excellent Biden-Harris economy, the margins were because of the last gasp of <hated other>, so to motivate for next election the Democratic Party needs to hit harder and reach deeper to the left. To the extent the Dems have to interact with Trump and co, the problem is resolved as not being aggressive enough. I don't think it's likely and it's definitely not a plausible explanation, but it's an attractive one because it means no Democratic party member is at fault.
Middle case, blame the campaign and economy. Harris genuinely isn't a skilled politician -- it's telling how many people from her own party outran her, as much as I hate that metric -- the last-minute swap left her little chance to build a real campaign or a positive identity separate from Biden, Walz was painful (even if you don't think he was picked over Shapiro), and broader secular trends about inflation and jobs and housing just drive too much voter sentiment. There's nothing here that's wrong, and it gives a really nice scapegoat who deserves it and isn't the unnamed professionals, but it still means little if any serious triangulation or consideration on politics.
Best case, there's a serious introspection at a policy level. The Biden-Harris maximalist immigration policies were so bad that Donald "They're Eating Dogs" Trump managed to seem more reasonable and no less untethered from reality. Trans stuff weren't a big vote-mover on their own, but the spectre of Loudon County wasn't nothing, either. You can call whatever happened with crime enforcement a policy thing, you can call it inviting police departments to have a wildcat strike, but whatever happened it pretty much sucked. Rent control, grocery store price controls, and stupidly-formed gimmick tax increases aren't real policies, they're what you do instead of having a real policy.
I'm hopeful on this, because there are genuinely a lot of spaces where there's a middle-ground position that's either factually better and/or much more politically popular than the hardline GOP one, and even if they can't get compromise they can at least make their opponents pay for refusing it. An actual immigration and refugee schema with real vetting and oversight is a lot more popular than a plain brick wall, a lot of the anti-trans and anti-gay positions only look remotely palatable when compared to a school hiding a twelve-year-old's transition from the kid's parents, there's a good few serious economic and foreign policies disasters coming down the pipe, there's a reason even Project 2025 didn't try to actually support the Second-Wave-Feminist take on porn beyond a throw-away paragraph, yada yada.
But I'm not optimistic; there's a ton of upper-echelon Dem political boosters who are very tied into the maximalist position of nearly every Dem position, and very strong institutional forces against serious introspection (and worse against cooperation-with-enemies, esp if the enemies aren't likely to want to play along). Indeed, even if federal Dems wanted to play along, there's a lot of state-level stuff that's already in motion and can't be unvoted, like New York's Prop 1 or various state sanctuary city rules.
Other worst case, the retrospective becomes They Weren't Trumpy Enough, and 2028 becomes a Populism of Presentation rather than policy considerations. Jim Carrey opens the DNC talking out of his ass sorta things. I don't think it's likely, but it's possible if the infrastructure of the party misread the situation.
gattsuru
1mo ago
DeWine's not great, but he's not going to put Ramaswamy in Congress without a literal boatload of money and a muzzle on Vivek in exchange. The man's just too hilariously malleable, and for all DeWine's many partisan faults, he's gotta be aware that Ramaswamy'll start biting as soon as he hits the top of the ladder.
In other environments, I'd say Dolan -- he's the sort of moderate-ish-righty that DeWine likes, ran reasonably strongly against Moreno in the primary season, and otherwise has pretty much Extruded Centrist Republican Product bonafides along with looking like an extra from Modern Family -- but that contested primary bites both ways. I don't know how well he or Moreno would play as co-senators, I know DeWine doesn't want to appoint someone who's likely to lose in 2026 (when the seat next comes up), and infighting is one of the surest ways for both seats to charlie foxtrot, especially with current state politics being the mess they are.
LaRose is kinda the split-baby option, a little more professional than Moreno, a little more Trumpy than Dolan. Worse bet as a ruler, better bet as someone staying in rule.
gattsuru
1mo ago
It was a little too expansive — health, without specificity or degree, has largely been read to allow nearly every sort of elective abortion, and that’s how Trump backpedaled after initial support — but it’s interesting it did as well as it did. Florida’s constitutional amendment process is steep, and getting 57% means a lot of people voted for both Trump and this most expansive case.
Part pf why I think a mild realignment on the matter is possible, if not likely.
gattsuru
1mo ago
McGovern kinda has the same problem jeroboam brings for McCain, except more so. Not only was McGovern losing in polls (by double digits!) before he picked up Eagleton, he only picked Eagleton after pretty much every popular federal Dem politician refused the bid, and Eagleton himself didn't seem to want it much.
I'd like to point to Breckinridge, but I guess that's a different sort of campaign blunder, and he did at least win the first election though, thankfully, not the war.
gattsuru
1mo ago
It's possible Selzer just botched it accidentally, and it wouldn't be the first time to have a weird outlier. But... it wouldn't be the first time to have a weird outlier, so it's at least not a strong look for the people certain it had to be correct.
gattsuru
1mo ago
What does a Harris loss look like?
Depends a lot on degree.
If it's tight -- one state under 5%, two or three states under 1% -- some amount of delaying is unavoidable. Literally, in some cases, like Pennsylvania where I don't think Harris could stop people from getting a recount if she wanted to. Some of the objections I might even agree with: there's a mess with Nevada signature verification that seems at least plausible. If it's not -- lose the popular vote by most of a percentage point, multiple states with multiple percent differences -- probably not.
I don't think we'll get a complete copy of J6, knock on wood. The Electoral Count Reform Act makes any challenge at Congress specifically to be exceptionally hard, requiring twenty Senators and over eighty Representatives. There's revelations about Trump I could imagine getting that level of cohesion, but I can't imagine any that wouldn't have been released long ago and needing (or wanting) a particularly boisterous riot at all.
There's still some place for ugliness toward the middle, though. I've mentioned the possibility of a blue governor in a state that voted red by a narrow margin and has the NPV Compact on the books doing something Interesting when it came to certifying electors for their state. I don't think it's likely, since neither Shapiro nor Whitmer seem to be Grishams, as bad as I think Whitmer's COVID response was, and that's why I'll describe it at all. There's a hilariously stupid loophole in the Electoral Count Reform Act related to judicial review, and it's one that's very hard to exploit, but there are some specific lines I could see the Baude/Paulsens of the world try to push, to serious destruction, enough that I'm not going to go into more detail.
Neither of these work at 300+ electoral vote splits. There's stuff that might, but it's... very far tail end, and very ugly. I'd be disappointed if the Harris campaign keeps trying to get blue jurisdictions to find ballots that can't close a 50-point EV gap, but that's just be embarrassing rather than destructive. There's gonna be people trying to come up with novel interpretations of everything -- Lawrence Tribe is still alive -- but they don't need conservatives wargaming for them.
((Wouldn't be surprised by some last-minute regulatory or executive branch bird-flipping, though dunno if anyone cares at this point. Probably will set the stage for a lot of legal fights afterward, though, both in terms of APA challenges to Trump and in making it hard for him to undo hits against himself or Musk; a CFPB-like established in the lame duck session is definitely on the table.))
Harris specifically almost certainly turns into one crux of any election post-mortem if she loses, especially by a large amount. A very tight race might be handwaved as racism or sexism, and I still expect to see a lot of ''racist v anti-racist'' tweets about the African-American male vote even as California brings it back closer to historical norms, but a large EV loss against Trump is gonna leave too much blame to go around. I don't think that's entirely fair, with the combination of general economic mess and everything Biden and last-minute swap (and, frankly, weakness from Walz), but the public relations people aren't going to put their own necks on the line. There's already gonna be a ton of outreach folk sharpening their wits for the tell-all books, and Harris being the nominee this year was always a bit about fear of that possibility from 'better' candidates like Whitmer or Newsom (ugh).
I'd like for there to be some more serious considerations among the broader progressive field about how it came to this, especially about emphasizing every tactical option but persuasion, but I... don't think it could happen.
((And, conversely, I'd hope that Trump et all does some actual giving on matters like abortion, like an 8-week safe harbor in exchange for requiring in-person consultations for oral abortificents, if only for tactical considerations like not getting absolutely crushed next election, but I'm not very optimistic. Even if it ends up a split House/Senate, there's gonna be too much temptation to take everything they can get.))
That said, I spent a lot of November 2020 sure that the Red Tribe Didn't Riot, so discount all this analysis as appropriate.
gattsuru
1mo ago
Trouble is that 'sways like the willow' sways to every wind. I think it'd need to be close to a big progressive push to carry her along, but there's a variety of avenues that would let her be easily pushed, even to her own detriment.
gattsuru
1mo ago
HDMI MHL gives more power, but the standard implementation is dumb, and it's not very commonly supported for televisions.
Chromecasts (and Intel Compute Sticks, and some Roku?) solve this by using USB power in and HMDI out. It's a little janky, but you can build something that looks like a single cable where both plugs go into the television. You're dependent on the television supporting the USB power spec properly, and some of the lower-end ones either fall under 250mA on USB or don't have USB out at all, but most large entertainment televisions today are usually better about it. Other downside is that while there's a lot of devices in this class, most of the common and cheap ones are designed as Apps First: requiring either WiFi access to the internet or serious fiddling to get to specific content.
That said, throwing your own together from prefab components isn't too nightmarish. The Microcenter-grade option is a Pi Zero (or Zero 2), which can do up to 1080p video (on local storage, in sane compression algorithms) without too much problem, and loading data onto a MicroSD card isn't too rough -- though trying to load a full media center like Kodi in can be sloooooow. If you want to go to 4k, things get a little more annoying. The mainstream Pis 4/5 can do it, but suck way too much power; the CM3 sticks need breakout boards and I wouldn't be confident about their 4k decoding. The Radxa 3E and 3W are supposed to be good for 4k decoding, but supply has been inconsistent at best.
That said, those all will have an extra cable involved, and worse still (excepting the CM3 breakout board) it's usually an annoying Micro/Mini/whateverthefuck HDMI rather than something you'd have in a parts bin. Even some of the more specialty western-focused shops like FriendlyElec don't seem to have a real specialized Compute Stick/Chromecast competitor.
Building your from scratch would be doable with the power budget -- hell, you might be able to get away with sub-50mA draw -- but it'd be pretty hefty call: HDMI interfaces aren't trivial, and since there aren't many good cheap 4k decoding SoCs you'd probably get to learn about power staging and memory differential signalling the hard way.
If you really don't care about resolution (or, uh, the FCC), analog TV signals are another option, and then you could just plug something into the wall in the same room. There's still a science project involved, but if you're willing to pay a bit it's not that much of a science project.
gattsuru
1mo ago
As far as I can tell without subscribing, his OnlyFans is pretty vanilla gay4pay-themed male focus shots, and more credible in that sense than a lot of stuff directly marketed as bisexual. The pet focus is mostly made on Instagram/TikTok/YouTube, although he does have (a lot) of pretty distinctive animal-themed tattoos and there's some really thirsty shots in Instagram/TikTok stuff.
gattsuru
1mo ago
I doubt that he can get a critical mass of democrats to join up with the effort, however.
Yeah, the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act's standards are high: 20 Senators and 87 Representatives is not pocket change. I'd expect some sort of symbolic act anyway, but I'd be unpleasantly surprised if they were able to pick up even half that.
((Of course, in 2020 I thought Red Tribes never rioted; there's a lot of space for unpleasant surprise.))
gattsuru
1mo ago
I was under the impression Beyond specifically was selling at loss as measured by manufacturing and shipping costs, even leaving out R&D:
There's some that's assets munged into gross margin calculations because of how inventories are defined, but not that much. If and when they go bankrupt, whatever stock they have might get liquidated, but unless a lot of their cost on margin is downstream of spoilage and packaging, I can't see a business case to keep using the recipe, and without expensive bits of the recipe you're mostly looking at a bunch of the stuff that's long been used as filler.
gattsuru
1mo ago
A lot of these (especially Beyond Burger) were very much hyperdunbarist financial basket cases, selling at losses in the hopes of scaling up to break even. It's not surprising to find the balloon deflating for them. On the up side, this probably works as an argument against their use as 'fillers', even without a DeSantis-style intervention or shocked consumer outrage. If they cost too much to sell at a small premium against meat, they're not going to sell under it. On the downside, that's only true until someone decides to change reality: methane, waste disposal, and land taxes on meat-raising businesses have long been a popular pressure tactic.
There's a handful of fake meats that aren't that bad -- there's a lot you can do with crumbled or hard-pressed tofu, especially if you're more interested in being good than being similar -- though I don't know how bad their business case is. Napkin math says comparable or slightly under, but that's making a lot of assumptions about labor costs.
[cw: all links involve pretty crude jokes with audio]
I don't think it's universal, but there's absolutely some spaces where variants of gay chicken that get that direction. It's... actually kinda awkward in mixed-orientation environments, especially where not everyone knows each other's orientation is common knowledge (conversation starts at 20:00, relevant bit continuing to 21:30).
Just in the last two weeks, I've had a male co-volunteer at an IRL project I've helped with set up,and continue a joke where the punchline involved him asking me to punch his v-card, and me responding 'I'd have to buy you dinner after', and him laughing at it. I'm pretty sure he's straight? But it's an education-focused IRL project, so it's not like I'm out, there, anyway.
((That said, even those spaces require pretty specific levels of familiarity and have other specific taboos; Fuentes, here, is just being an ass.))
Uh... at least for 'fucked your mom' level jokes, absolutely positively yes.
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