chooky
2d ago
What most predictions about stocks and the US economy missed is just how enormous the tide of AI investment is for share prices and headline GDP growth. Also underappreciated is the extent to which spending is propped up by health care, etc., especially for the aging baby boomer cohort - how could we not see short term GDP with the deficit rising so explosively?
If you look at earnings, especially sales volumes, for companies with exposure to consumers, it is not very good! Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that pre-tariff inventory builds have made it so that tariffs have not yet truly filtered down to measured prices or earnings and will not do so untl 4q25 or 1q26.
chooky
2d ago
Counterpoint: Mere decades after the author's complaint, WW2 happened and was thus directly caused by women being educated.
chooky
2d ago
Consider that Red Tribe has always been more accepting of official military/law enforcement narratives. DHS should probably count as law enforcement. I think most of the people replying to you, and you, are overextending these examples to a more general lack/presence of skepticism for both sides.
chooky
7d ago
Why? Because she would have likely been less popular than Obama and thus had less ability to pass something not particularly popular like ACA?
Or is it simply timing regarding what would have even been possible in 2016?
chooky
8d ago
If we need to include RFK, who seems like a true idiot, that is a bad sign that we are really reaching to fill out the list! Overall, I think the Dems will realize that they need to expand their coalition and that a huge amount of their coalition (albeit not the most active parts of the Dem base) are very opposed to the woke stuff that it seems like would be the grounds for Taibbi and Rogan's purported unwelcomeness.
chooky
12d ago
I agree with a lot of what you say, but I found the exploration in Silksong to be very frustrating and often obnoxious. Far too much compelling content is gated behind unmapped breakable walls or hard to notice double-jump paths, and the world is so big that going around a rechecking for things is very tedious. (Even worse are the wildly unclear unlock conditions for the Act 3 quest or things like Craw King.) Maybe I should be better at noticing breakable walls, but the problem, imo, is particularly egregious when is comes to obscured double-jump paths that I do not think it would be reasonable to expect a player to mark on their map until they use one.
I completely agree that these games are great mainly because of the spectacularly refined and numerous bosses.
chooky
14d ago
Yeah, boyfriend cut was somewhat a revival of 1980s, current baggyness is a revival of the comically baggy JNCOs of 1990s middle schoolers.
Dont worry too much, nothing has changed about skinny-ish dark being the most flattering and most enduring.
chooky
14d ago
This is just a natural part of fashion cycling. Form fitting jeans will eventually return to being in vogue. I would say that a major catalyst for the baggy jeans resurgence was Billie Eilish, but a lot of it is also just the nostalgia factor for people who grew up when skate culture was big.
chooky
20d ago
I have lived in a couple towns. In both, existing residents have complained that high-income new residents are bidding up the price of housing, so it seems like the problem you are describing does not exist that much. Things probably change when you get to poor immigrants, refugees, etc, but few families with an $85k income would even consider moving to high-cost cities like NYC.
Another thing that your argument is missing is that many muni services have very high fixed costs. As you correctly point out, growing cities indeed run into traffic problems, crowded classrooms, etc, as population rises but before they do the next big capital infusion. Sure, it is annoying, but it is far better than the opposite problem of spreading the same fixed costs across a declining population, especially since the latter usually means an increasingly poor population.
chooky
23d ago
Wouldn't your logic on the marathon suggest that I could just squat 50 lbs six times and call it 300? As with a very long walk, I am doing the same amouny of "work" with low weight and high reps.
chooky
27d ago
Footnotes would be fine. What makes IJ obnoxious is that it has extensive endnotes such that you are constantly flipping to the back of the book. Or have they fixed this in newer editions now that Wallace isnt alive to stand in their way?
Anyway, if you guys enjoy IJ, I would consider Solenoid to be an absolute must-read.
chooky
27d ago
Wake me up if Israel/Palestine stop killing each other for more than a few months! I think this is a case where Trump's approach of steamrolling Israel into accepting his terms worked well and good for him, but it also seems way too easy to be real. Also, it is somewhat difficult to evaluate Israel outside of the context of Ukraine, on which there has been no progress toward a peace that doesnt just reward Russia's initial invasion.
chooky
29d ago
Nah, Golden is just Heaven by DJ Sammy redux - a quintessential feel good house song. Like Heaven, it is great, though admittedly not inspired like the best Daft Punk, for example.
chooky
1mo ago
How do you deal with the fact that digital money, including credit cards, makes 25 cent multiples basically pointless? Do digital spenders get screwed or helped by these price increments? Is it really the case that businesses with low-cost items (eg grocery stores) do not have 5-20 cent price increments currently? Surely not.
chooky
1mo ago
I have very nice neighbors who trained or tried to train a dog to stop barking inside with one. I live in a very normy, probably even slightly upper middle class, burb.
chooky
1mo ago
Trying to defund woke by instead funding creationism honestly seems like a pretty likely outcome!
chooky
1mo ago
Yes, I am 100% sure that HSA providers used by big companies have procedures that will guarantee everything is fine forever. I'm more interested by the financial argument than a receipts argument.
chooky
1mo ago
I am not very up on Roth stuff, but wpuld things change if receipt storage were completely trivial? The way my, and I assume nearly all, HSA works is that I submit receipts to the conpany that manages the HSA, and then those credits for withdrawal and ready for me whenever I want to use them. There is no receipt tracking because I just submit immediately.
chooky
1mo ago
But children of the 90s are like 40 now and would have also grown up entirely under the post-1970s paradigm, while the rise of incel culture (and various other apparent symptoms of dysfunctional romance) seems like a phenomenom of the past 10-15 years. I am having a hard time ascribing this to the 1970s rather than technology shifts (Tinder, etc), high pace of housing inflation (which reduces incentives for household formation and makes it much harder to not rely on also-expensive daycare, aka the two-income trap), or the transition of church and religion out of mainstream (which I would argue began to rapidly occur during Bush 2 and was basically complete mid-Obama).
chooky
1mo ago
I am far more nail reliant in Silksong than I was spell-reliant in HK, partly because the upgraded spells in HK were just completely OP. It always kind of hurts to use tools because shards are not actually that easy to rapidly acquire if you are aggressively using tools.
I do greatly appreciate tool repair being free for some tough act 3 battles.
chooky
1mo ago
I am sure this has been asked before, but why is it that these purported consequences of the 1970s sexual revolution have not shown up until the past 10-15 years? It really took 50 years to come to a head?
chooky
1mo ago
My point is that if Erika Kirk did not genuinely forgive her husband's murderer and inwardly longed for violent vengeance, her taking a public stance either way almost certainly has zero impact on the actual outcome. Indeed, I would argue that there are strong incentives, both social and financial, to take on the forgiveness stance. While I am not doubting her sincerity (and I certainly approve of these incentives' continued existence as a plus for contemporary Christianity), I am not impressed by it.
chooky
1mo ago
What would it mean to not "forgive"... to proclaim a desire for vengeance? If so, that seems like a much more staggering path. Even after seeing his previous career, Trump's words at the funeral are the ones that are shocking to me, as I have no wish for ill to befall my American political opponents and indeed would like policies that I oppose to prove me wrong by being beneficial. (For one, it costs me money when the economy is bad!) All this to say that I think that you are simultaneously too cynical about basic standards for human behavior and not nearly cynical enough about the extent to which this is a cost-free, potentially calculated position: Erika Kirk doesn't legally really get any say in the punishment already.
DHS has been anti-terrorist since its inception. Not to claim that left organizations would be pro-terrorist, but conservatives are stereotypically heavily anti-terrorist and have been a bit more accepting of civil rights creep.
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