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User ID: 700

bro


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 3 users   joined 2022 September 05 20:25:55 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 700

Various betting markets currently have "will Trump tweet" at 70-80%.

my pick whenever I'm not using Mac

How are the bathhouses in Istanbul, I hear good things

Eigenrobot loves his illegibility, but I think if you were to really pin him down "far right" would be a nontrivial mischaracterization.

He's not especially anti-immigration, for example. And he considers "right wing" an outgroup. Among other things.

The absolutely fucking wild thing here is not that some particular group of policy wonks wrote a policy.

The absolutely fucking wild thing here is that what is potentially one of the most profoundly consequential geopolitical things to have happened in our lifetimes may have been done with any (much less a primary) influence from EAish concerns/panic over the risk of imminent human-extinction from out-of-control AI.


Also, putting the purported screenshot through another round of broken telephone for (what I'm fairly certain was also @DaseindustriesLtd's primary intended) emphasis:

[...]

-EAs wrote the semiconduct export controls

-this does slow down China, and many people think the point was just slowing down/winning an arms race with China

-that was not the primary aim in writing the semiconduct export controls, though slowing stuff down Generally Considered Good

-of at least equal and possibly greater importance was that a bunch of global governance stuff looks way easier if there is one chip supply chain and no alternatives

[...]

Uh...

Effective altruists wrote the semiconductor export restrictions

Is there anywhere else a public discussion of this is happening besides that impenetrable tumblr thread? This seems incredibly significant.

What an absolutely fucking wild thing to off-handedly drop as a polemical jab in an off-topic subthread lol

Yes, undisputed. That is not the same thing as "jews are the one group that is off-limits to debate or criticism".

If a non-black celebrity was robbed, then tweeted about how he's about to go DEFCON 3 on black people and gave multiple interviews about how he's not about to keep getting victimized by black criminals, would it go very differently?

biggest fan

My first gut reaction whenever I encounter him after having not for a while is "this guy's so fucking annoying, just stop", and the degree to which I ever read any further is out of a desire to see him slip up badly enough I can dismiss him altogether or see him definitively put in his place by someone who clearly knows better.

The problem is I haven't seen that yet.

Here's hoping I don't get so entangled this or any time that I can't return to not paying attention. There's enough other and more consequential shit where the same general dynamic that his claims point towards is ruining everything, that it would already be several full time jobs' worth of time and misery to attempt to follow it all.

But yes, unless he's been properly owned and continued anyway in purely ego-driven contrarianism-poisoned bad faith, god bless him for not dropping it despite it making him This Fucking Guy? Again?

I don't follow him that closely so maybe he has, but I haven't seen Marinos himself make anywhere near so strong a claim as "covering up hundreds of thousands of deaths, using bogus statistical analysis to fool everyone".

I think his thesis in all this has been "if you judge many accepted findings by the same standards by which plausibly-for-other-reasons-disfavored findings have been dismissed, a lot of it wouldn't hold up".

ie Beware Isolated Demand For Rigor

The furthest I've been able to trace this has been to an Intel Slava Z telegram post of the only screenshot of it that seems to exist (2 minutes before the Eva Bartlett tweet of the same screenshot, that Musk later responded to), and I'm not fluent enough in the russian side of the internet to look any further than that.

There are no public archives of it:

https://archive.ph/https://myrotvorets.center/*

https://web.archive.org/web/*/http://myrotvorets.center/*

Off-topic for subthread but since you are here:

Was Elon Musk actually on Myrotvorets or is the screenshot fabricated?

In Scott's latest Open Thread:

3: Alexandros Marinos continues his critique of my ivermectin post, and his broader ivermectin advocacy. I can’t remember if I’ve said this before, but I commit to writing a summary and response within four months of him being done, which as far as I can tell is not yet (yes, four months is a long time, but it’s a long series and I’m really busy this winter). His most recent post argues that the big COVID drug trials (TOGETHER, ACTIV-6, COVID-OUT) haven’t made their data public, and offers to donate $25,000 to a charity of my choice if I can get them to do so. I have no idea how to do this, but I agree that they should; if anyone from these trials wants to get in touch with me and talk about it and I would be interested in hearing what’s going on.

attn @AlexandrosM

Something unspecified happened at the Eradicate Hate Conference this week and nobody who’s upset is saying what

I feel like there's enough information leaking through here to infer what happened -- why would they stay quiet, with no defectors; "a range of events"; etc -- but I'm too stupid to put it together.

Any guesses?


Looking back into this a few days later: some people went to a strip club

Much less interesting than I was imagining.

For the above comment: again, did not appear in incognito at first, then did within a few seconds of self-reporting the comment.

I will leave this one un-self-reported for a few hours as an experiment.


20 minutes: this comment still does not appear publicly.


45 minutes: comment appears publicly after Zorba's attention

I just made my first comments on the site, and, from checking in incognito, they did not appear publicly at first. This was the case for both a top-level comment in the CW thread (which stayed invisible for hours, overnight), and a reply (which stayed invisible for a few minutes).

In both cases, the comments only appeared publicly after I reported them myself (as in pressed the "Report" button on the comment, and submitted one to request they be "approved" or whatever the mechanism in action here is), but also in both cases they appeared publicly within seconds of reporting them. So either the mods are extremely on the ball in responding to reports (but up-to-hours off the ball in approving new comments unprompted), or it was the act of reporting them which automatically caused them to publically appear (which leaves it frustratingly unclear what would have happened to them if I hadn't self-reported them).

I doubt I would have been singled out/shadowbanned since I hadn't done anything yet, so I assume it is representative of the (new?) user experience. It is off-putting.

It would help to know what the intended behaviour is here and what to expect.

A clip which was surgically cherry-picked for the purpose of destroying a comedian's career is usually not going to be a hilarious standalone representation of their work at its best.

The New Yorker has published a 9000-word article rehabilitating Shane Gillis (archive), the comedian who was prominently fired from SNL in 2019 after clips surfaced of him making racist remarks against asians.

(almost immediately after being announced as part of a new cohort including the first asian cast member, the shitstorm centered on a clip which included him saying the word "chink" on his podcast (original instigating tweet, offending clip, full episode), and he was fired 4 days later)

(fwiw, this was in the context of doing an implicit impression of "the kind of guy who would say that"; but he's said "worse", about even more protected groups, in ways which would require even more discernment than this to escape, which is already impossible enough that he didn't ever publically attempt it)

That they attempted to bring Shane Gillis into as hallowed an institution as SNL in the first place was remarkable and seemed to me at the time like it could even have been an early sign of a potential vibe shift (at a time which absolutely did not have a lot of that). He was explicitly intended to be red-tribe outreach, and as far as I know SNL has not attempted anything like that again since.

That he even lasted 4 days at that level of shitstorm in a cultural place so far behind the lines is remarkable, and there is all kinds of kremlinology you can do at any level of suspicion about how deliberate or coordinated any of it is about how that went down.

Similarly with this rehabilitation.