Wawel
2yr ago
It started from
When Zelensky disagrees, Zelensky is out.
Zelensky asked for WW III (AKA "close the sky" AKA "no fly zone" AKA "NATO shots down Russian planes, bombs airports and Russia and runs SEAD/DEAD over Belarus and Russia").
I think that it is sufficient for rejection of "When Zelensky disagrees, Zelensky is out." and "Not on anything of significance"
Wawel
2yr ago
Wawel
2yr ago
Again, you are highly misinformed.
Ukraine had quite strong army. Artillery (except ultra-long-range), tanks, standard issue weaponry, planes, drones are their own supply. Also, other categories - it is not like Javelin is the only AT weapon.
Wawel
2yr ago
no consulting the family of the victims
another blatant lie, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre :
Businessman and former 2004 Ukrainian presidential election candidate Oleksandr Rzhavskyy was killed in Bucha at his estate. Rzhavskyy was previously noted to be a pro-Russian politician, criticized the post-2014 Ukrainian government and praised Vladimir Putin. According to his daughter, he had been abducted twice by Russian soldiers at his estate who had demanded a ransom, and during a drunken binge, the Russian soldiers shot him dead.
Wawel
2yr ago
As of 2022-02-24 Ukraine had no certain western support, and even now it is inferior to Russian military.
Russian government delivered more ready-to-use heavy machinery such as tanks than any other country.
Wawel
2yr ago
A Churchill can only be a hero inasmuch as he's not a Chamberlain. Roll them into one, and you get a fool's redemption arc, not a hero's journey.
I am not aware of Zelensky doing Chamberlain-level mistakes.
Wawel
2yr ago
I actually would be interested in something about Zelensky that is not hero-worship.
But completely missing point is not interesting. At least this take is not babbling about green screens.
Wawel
2yr ago
Are you claiming that Ukraine was militarily superior to Russia, as of 2022-02-24?
And I’m left asking, can we predict that? How can we predict how leaders will react under pressure? How can we predict how wars and matters of state will conclude if they hinge on these personal decisions of individual, fallible, men?
I think that it is relatively hard to predict, especially for critical pressure where things cannot be really tested.
Though obviously there are some indicators, lowlife cheater and scammer is less likely to be heroic than average. But during German occupation there were also cases of dedicated antisemites risking their lives to rescue Jewish children. And supposedly noble people becoming traitors with a small push.
so to me it’s more likely to be “Azov killed innocents who took Russian aid”
we literally have satellite imagery of dead bodies lying on streets at time of Russian occupation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucha_massacre#Satellite_images
without any real evidence for anything
This is blatant lie and denial of reality.
Are you comparing total army size (Ukrainian side?) with deployed combat troops (Russian side?)
See tooth-to-tail ratio why it is misleading. Even Russian army has significant logistical tail.
Wawel
2yr ago
Exactly, after events happened some people were claiming that was inevitable and obvious despite claiming exactly opposite before event.
Wawel
2yr ago
Not on anything of significance, to my knowledge.
Then you are not knowledgeable on this topic.
With technology it is trivial to place Zelensky anywhere you want in Ukraine.
Not really. See say this and that - to fake that you would need massive CGI support and ridiculously sized conspiracy.
Also, given that not even Putin or Russian propaganda or their milbloggers are claiming this, you would need a really convincing evidence to get us to treat it seriously.
I do not believe for one moment that he spends a majority of his time in Ukraine.
Your claim is entirely based on "appearances strongly suggest he uses a green screen" claim without evidence and your non-existent authority.
Wawel
2yr ago
Yes, multiple times.
"Close the sky", requests for jet fighters, tanks, more aggressive sanctions, long range missiles.
Ukraine also has made some aggressive moves at least not officially stamped by NATO like attacking targets within Russia itself.
Wawel
2yr ago
They fund everything
No, they do not. Vast majority of funds is provided by Ukraine and Russia.
Western help is crucial, but it is only part. Ukraine provides manpower, Ukraine and Russia provided vast part of heavy weaponry.
People were excited about Javelins but Ukrainian Stugnas were also heavily used. Nonsexy artillery has taken down plenty of tanks. And so on.
Wawel
2yr ago
what are some other slow but inexorable military defeats that failed to pierce the epistemic closure of leadership until the very end?
Many guerilla movements. For example Armia Krajowa in Poland was doomed but they tried (see Warsaw Uprising for example). Or Jewish uprising against Roman Empire.
But here you have also a decent dose of fight being elaborate suicide, still preferable to alternatives.
Baghdad Bob. For some values of slow.
Wawel
2yr ago
RT cites one of Zelenksy's main negotiators as putting it at the 200-500 mark:
"RT"
Are you serious?
Lavrov in March was claiming that Russia has not attacked Ukraine.
Even official count of shot down aircraft provided by Ukrainian propaganda is more credible.
Wawel
2yr ago
there should have been a negotiated end to this war months ago, and the European countries should be pushing Ukraine to cede and accept their loss...
So that Russia will repeat the same year or decade later? Even German politicians noticed flaw in this idea.
Russia is already in place and has its supply lines.
Yeah, because Russia is famous for its great logistics.
while Ukraine is already maxed out
[citation needed]
they have the old soviet stockpiles
Yeah, because tanks kept 20 years in Siberian mud are so useful. To be clear, some stockpiles are useful but this 12 000 tank count is a deranged fantasy.
Wawel
2yr ago
the Poles would probably do it even if they couldn't afford or profit from it.
reducing risk of getting again invaded by Russia is worth a lot.
WW II when allied Russia and Germany invaded resulted in 16% of Poles being murdered, to say nothing about economical and political losses.
Wawel
2yr ago
I am not expecting that it would be wanted by Poland (however you define it) or Poles or Polish government.
Wawel
2yr ago
Putin might think that the West is not going to sanction him any more than it already has.
There is A LOT of space here. For start USA holds about 300 000 000 000 $ hostage. For China and India that may be enough to start full scale blockade.
And there is plenty of space like taking military action, full scale military gear delivery or actually volunteer units in NATO gear going into action. Or actions by special forces.
Wawel
2yr ago
I think there are two big points that Putin has hard lost in the context of European politics
Maybe it is not much but for me reading news about polls measuring approval of Russia was hilarious. In Poland it dropped to 3%.
Wawel
2yr ago
In case that they were hit by Ukrainians I would assume that they were at least trying to hit military targets (stationing army, convoy, ammo depo or something).
In small part because I do not expect them to target civilians for moral reasons - but mostly because I expect them to not target civilians for strategy reasons and because they are unlikely to be running out of military targets.
Yeah, getting high on own propaganda supply was a fundamental reason for this war.
It is especially painful as utter corruption of Russian army was not something secret, just underestimated.
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