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Unsaying

Lord, have mercy.

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joined 2023 February 15 19:59:17 UTC

				

User ID: 2188

Unsaying

Lord, have mercy.

2 followers   follows 3 users   joined 2023 February 15 19:59:17 UTC

					

No bio...


					

User ID: 2188

My friend, who should know, says:

So I would say that most people think about the efficient markets hypothesis as saying an investments return should mostly be static or that it should be not possible to beat returns consistently. The textbook definition is that it reflects all information. People think that this breaks down because of numerous observed behavioural traits that affect the market and generate opportunity in value stocks. But I do not like to think about it this way because I think we should just look at what a market is literally. Are prices reflecting the demand for an item efficiently at this time, relative to substitutes and alternatives? I think it usually does. And because we are dealing with deep uncertainty, I just don't buy that a price deviating significantly from long run expected future earnings is evidence of inefficiency.

I could make this explanation clearer. I just have alot of problems with people ascribing meme stocks etc to inefficiency when the market isn't for some abstract return basket but for real social phenomenon. The question should be about supply and demand for different investments. When everyone wants to invest you will naturally get overpriced bubbles the same way when everyone likes to buy sneakers. But the phrasing of the efficient market hypthesis leads people to believe that because supply and demand for investments fluctuate and people devote capital to inferior substitutes during times of shortage, that they are behaving irrationally. I might have a problem with the formulation of the efficient markets hypothesis maybe.

I said that immigration had little to no effect on native birthrates, citing Japan and Korea as examples.

I don't think I buy this and suspect it's a matter of apples to oranges.

I wouldn't call a woman 'he' just because she looks like a dude, though.

So why are you calling him 'her'?

Yes I still avoid both.

I am worse for having seen this

I don't know why women seem attracted to bad boy types, but especially if you have been one, this pattern is unmistakable.

Because lack of willingness to commit is a masculine signal of high value genetics. He can have his pick and he knows it.

This would be a real problem for women in a world in which less-exciting, more-committal men refused to raise the children of the first type once those women have 'gotten serious'. But generally those guys are happy enough with sloppy seconds, the companionship of a woman who still isn't too unappealing, and occasional obligatory sex, maybe even a kid or two of his own.

Culture can tune for this.

About 18 months ago I rented a model Y for a few days to make up my mind about taking the plunge. Loved it. Picked up my own (but the sport model) about 10 months ago. Will definitely never look back.

At first a few things bugged me in the spirit of "why would you even reinvent that perfectly-functional standard?" but over time it's all grown on me.

And in the meantime, man, there's nothing else quite like a tesla. The passing power, the software, just the overall experience is fantastic. And when I'm on long drives (a couple times per week) it's lovely to be able to hit the autopilot and look out the window. This shines even brighter during traffic jams, where suddenly the mental labor of stopping and going has been eliminated entirely, and I can often even read a book.

Two things I'll complain about, because in both cases I thought I'd accounted for them but was wrong.

First of all, I thought I'd be saving substantial money on fuel, and I guess there has been a slight edge, but not nearly as much as expected and not enough to offset the higher cost of the vehicle. Even so it was fun last summer to be able to say, "Jeez, do you know what gas costs now? (Sympathetic nod) ...Because I don't!" lmaooooo

But secondly, insurance is really very expensive. I got a quote for like $130 a month, which is still high, but then it quickly shot up to iirc $203 per month, which is just... kind of absurd. And I have a decades-long driving history with zero moving violations or at-fault accidents.

So at this point I'm paying something like $1200 a month for the vehicle and still quite a lot for fuel/energy.

One thing that doesn't bother me, but which reasonably could, is the supercharging dynamic. I have almost always found that chargers are available where and when I want them, though a couple of the stations do set moderately abusive rates. (The menu in the car will tell you where the chargers are and what they cost, so those are easily avoided). But also, gas stations are everywhere, and superchargers are not. A few weeks ago I was driving down the coast having a fine time when my car warned me that I was almost beyond range of any charger stations. This was a pretty big surprise -- turned out the one I'd been counting on was down for maintenance that day (or something). Turning back would have been very costly in time and so I decided to try just driving slower instead and use the next one. This worked fine and I was sure to let everyone by who wanted to pass. Still, not a pleasant situation in which to suddenly find oneself. Presumably it will be rapidly less-common anyway as chargers are going up all over.

Oh, one more thing -- a lot of the places I go still have free electric vehicle charging for parked cars. Nice to take advantage of from time to time.

"Female librarian fantasy" is one of those things that always felt like it should appeal to me but doesn't. Like nurses, or feet.

But lately I have had a hankering for the genre of 'dark academia' and don't know where to begin. Any recommendations?

Definitely not the case. This is a chance for you to ask where you heard that, why they're lying to you, and what else you might have believed from them.

Also I really don't care for the audiobook narrator. Quite a mismatch.

One departure from realism was that they removed the ability for guns to jam. Happened all the time at first (realistic amounts) but pretty quickly they decided that letting a prospective recruit simulate being in mortal peril when his weapon inexplicably stops working wasn't great for numbers.

That's Henrich

Predictions?

My assumption is that plenty already have been concerned about this, and many of the remainder won't be swayed by anything. I wonder how many are in the middle?

I withdraw my snark

Gadzooks that was brutal

"No, you see, every time you say 'monkey' I immediately think of black people, so you need to stop using such racist language."

When I huff straight nitrogen I get dizzy

I would say so.

My ex wife spent all her time writing erotic lesbian fanfiction with her asexual friends.

Surely it depends upon the names.

F

lmao it's all Tik Tok now

If the IRA had been like African Americans, they would have moved to Canterbury and complained incessantly about everything English.

I think we can agree this is a bit facetious?

I'll reply that without hesitation. What's the problem?

Or do you suppose you're able to judge the actions of a transhumanly intelligent entity with access to understanding and wisdom vastly beyond anything to which we might hope to aspire?

Is temporal death an insurmountable evil in the face of an afterlife?

Look man you can disagree, but there's no internal contradiction here.