ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
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User ID: 2935
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Yes, it does not explain why Jews may choose to get into politics,
Do Jews go disproportionately into politics? They're not exactly under-represented in scientific fields, or finance (hence all the stereotypes), law, medicine etc.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Sounds like a good way to generate energy?
LOL what makes you say that?
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
I don't think future attempts at Oct 7th style attacks by themselves will test the viability of Israel as a state. My point was that the lesson that nations like Iran will (correctly IMO) draw from this is that such an attack gets Israel diplomatically isolated and threatened with sanctions for trying to respond, while its supposed main ally actively sabotages its attempts to achieve its war aims (see Biden delaying the initial Gaza invasion, and then the whole circus about refusing to allow a Rafah invasion for months) and even gives permission for further attacks against Israel. I don't think a war with Hezbollah tomorrow will lead to Israel getting destroyed, but Iran can keep refunding and re-arming them, Israel will find it increasingly hard to recover from war losses over the coming decades as the west and the US continues to abandon them under Democrat administrations while further embracing Iran.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
revealed preference by all the major nuclear powers is a preference to endure non-existential attacks and even lose wars rather than use them, even when the threat of counter-use isn't present.
The reason I gave Israel as the likeliest to launch a nuclear weapon is that for them any given war is far likelier to be existential, and there aren't many ways they can lose militarily that don't involve them getting destroyed as a nation. This isn't a suggestion that they would directly attack Iran, more that they would do something like launch a tactical strike in Lebanon as a show of force and to take out a large part of Hezbollah's capabilities.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Almost certainly. And that it's in the poorer, ex-communist eastern half of the country.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
I assume you meant to reply directly to @hydroacetylene with this comment?
What are people's guesses for when the first nuclear weapon (since WWII) will be fired?
Could it happen before 2030? Before 2040? In our lifetimes? And between which actors, and in what context? And how would the likelihood of this change depending on political changes like upcoming elections (both in the US and elsewhere?) This isn't necessarily referring to a MAD scenario or global nuclear war, simply any non-test use of such weapons by a state or group for military purposes.
I'm far from an expert on geopolitics but my sense is that these are the regions where this is likeliest to happen:
1/ The Middle East
Since the start of the Israel/Gaza war, US and global efforts have been overwhelmingly focused on convincing Israel to abandon military action. Whether or not you agree with that, it's hard to imagine that Hamas/Hezbollah/The Houthis/Iran will look at this and feel anything but emboldened to continue attacking Israel in the near future (as is already happening with Hezbollah in the north). An extreme hypothetical scenario is one where Iran and its proxies continue making war on Israel while Western nations distance themselves more and more, refusing diplomatic support and eventually imposing economic sanctions including prohibitions on the sale of weapons. Backed into a corner and beginning to face existential threats, Israel launches one or more tactical nuclear strikes to change the situation on the battlefield.
With the Democrats increasingly hostile to Israel and in favour of conciliatory action towards Iran, and Donald Trump's likely intention to maintain his prior administration's forceful foreign policy in the region, I think this is the one situation where the choice of next US president will have the largest impact on whether we see nuclear weapons get used. I'm going to make the prediction that there's a 50% chance Israel launches a nuke in some capacity by 2030 if Biden is elected later this year Since posting, people have pointed out that tactical nukes aren't especially useful for, so instead I'll predict there's a 50% chance they launch a nuke by 2040.
2/ Ukraine
This is another obvious candidate for where we might see nukes used. This is something that has been talked about since 2022 although obviously nothing like this has come to pass. With greater resources and numbers of soldiers, it's hard to imagine Putin feeling the need to escalate the situation in such a manner, unless the West starts deploying their troops such that the course of the war radically changes.
This is another situation where the choice of next US president will play a crucial role, although it's less obvious IMO what effect this choice will have. Biden has been rhetorically and financially supportive of Ukraine, but has been cautious of engaging the US more deeply in the war, only recently permitting Ukraine to strike inside Russia using US weapons. Trump's friendly attitude towards Putin is well known, as is his skepticism towards foreign intervention, but he's also unpredictable and belligerent. I've seen the point made here that he may take the idea of the US "losing" in Ukraine as an affront to his pride and consequently decide to escalate.
3/ China and Taiwan
This feels less likely than the previous two examples, mostly because there's no active conflict in the region yet so there are still several further stages of escalation that would need to be crossed before nuclear weapons become worth considering for anyone involved. The US also seems to be taking steps to reduce their dependence on Taiwan. On the other hand, the US is interested in countering Chinese influence for reasons that go beyond the situation with Taiwain, and if China starts making SK and Japan worried enough to think about establishing their own nuclear programs, the US might start to find its credibility in the region tested.
4/ Pakistan and India
I unfortunately know almost nothing about the situation here, besides the fact that these are two nuclear armed neighboring states with a pretty unfriendly history, which felt like a good enough reason to add them to this discussion.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Berlin is relatively poor after all - something I think surprised a lot of people who assume by default that it's the national center of wealth generation akin to London, Paris, Madrid etc.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Dirty, full of CCTV, brown people.
Dirty? Compared to what? Of the comparably sized cities I've been to (NY, Paris, Berlin), I'd say London generally holds up pretty well on this front. There are horrendous areas, granted, but that's the same everywhere.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
his instincts are deeply "woke", for lack of a better term.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Housing regulations at least are probably likelier to loosen up under labour (though not necessarily likely in absolute terms) as their base consists less of older homeowners who are against new building for house price/aesthetic purposes.
Once the world's richest nation now looks set to be overtaken by Poland within the decade, at least on a per capita basis.
I enjoyed your analysis, and this is a minor nitpick, but isn't this figure based on PPP (which will probably become less favorable to Poland as it becomes wealthier in absolute terms)?
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Definitely an unexpected timeline.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
I look forward to reading that effortpost if/when you get around to it!
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Understood, I'll be less snarky in the future. I appreciate the work you guys do.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
In the context of the UK, these would be my answers:
What are his metaphysical/spiritual beliefs? I know astrology seems like a blue tribe thing and, stereotypically, he’s not very committed to Christianity. But most of these people don’t seem like pure atheist materialists either.
Males are mostly purely atheist. Spirituality/astrology appeals more to females but mostly to older Boomer/Gen-X women (new-age types). Millennial blue-tribe women IME don't have much interest in this, preferring to get their spiritual fulfilment by being involved in or signaling support for fashionable progressive causes.
What does he do for in person socializing? Like you mentioned work, and a comment downthread mentioned social media use. You mentioned vacations too. These people seem unlikely to be churchgoers, and bars have been declining for years. Is it just the gym? Are they just generally lonely? Is the more money mostly to pay for vacations?
Work was a big one before the pandemic and remote work. For older people it will largely be family, for younger people social life will often revolve around friends from university, people met while house-sharing etc. And a lot of these people are pretty lonely and won't have made many friends since graduating.
What’s his definition of Nazi? Surely he’s not literally worried about Adolf Hitler.
Nazi/Fascist rhetoric is a bit less prevalent in the UK, with blue tribers mostly just calling those they don't like racists/bigots IME. To the extent they do use stronger language it's mostly in the context of talking about US republicans, who a lot of them are convinced are almost as bad as literal 1930/40s German Nazis.
As an aside, writing the above has made me reflect on the extent to which the blue/red tribe distinction works in the UK context. It's definitely at least somewhat useful for analysing cultural and political fault-lines but I think it misses other distinctions (like those between European and non-European migration) that are probably more salient in the UK than the US. Might be worth a top level CW post at some point.
There's a comment on the linked substack article suggesting that the authorities were expecting some sort of counter-protesters (i.e Antifa) and the police were under instruction to let the BPE members get a bit beaten up a bit, giving the police a plausible excuse to arrest any of the BPE as soon as they react (hence why the police do nothing while the Afghan is being violent, only getting involved it's to subdue one of the BPE people trying to defend his friend).
ETA: I might be wrong about that.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
I appreciate the perspective!
Left-wing papers run an article or two that mostly revolve around the plight of the stabbed policeman, right-wing papers give us some additional details, but none really call out the story for the blatant failure it is every which way.
Why in your opinion are right-wing papers failing to call out the story in the manner you describe? It would seem to be pretty obvious material to do just that.
A recent even in Mannheim, put on by anti-Islam group BPE (Bürgerbewegung Pax Europa) led to a policeman getting stabbed.
What's particularly notable about this incident is the bizarre way the physical altercation between BPE members, the assailant and the police unfolded, as described by German substack writer Eugyppius:
If violent internet videos are not your cup of tea, I’ll narrate it for you:
The footage opens with Sulaiman and Stürzenberger struggling in the background. Blue-jacketed BPE staff pull Sulaiman off his victim, but Sulaiman breaks free and charges, stabbing wildly and wounding Stürzenberger in the face and leg. This footage taken from another angle shows the police intervention more clearly; as is routine for BPE events, officers were already on scene, but for fifteen long seconds they do nothing. It is Stürzenberger’s colleagues themselves who must pull Sulaiman off his victim once again and fight for control of the knife. When the officers do intervene, it is to defend Sulaiman; they free the attacker from the BPE activists, at which point Sulaiman stabs one of the policemen in the neck and another officer finally shoots him. Thereafter, to complete the farce, a female officer restrains the BPE assistant who had been fighting Sulaiman.
It would be interesting to hear from the German posters here what the reaction to this has been locally. Has it been completely buried, is the story that far-right anti-Islam types got what they deserve involved in the same mischief they always do, or has anything about this made an impact?
ETA: The poster of the above substack piece has written a new article linking a different video showing that from the perspective of the policeman who intervened (and has now sadly died) it's much more understandable why he tackled the individual he did.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
I get that it's poor form to call out other posters like this, and maybe I'll get punished by the mods, but @coffee_enjoyer is a pretty hardcore Jew-hater*, I wouldn't recommend engaging with him/her for good good-faith takes on anything relating to Jews or Israel.
*This isn't a "boo outgroup" thing btw, I'm pretty sure the poster in question proudly embraces this label.
ToZanarkand
Some day the dream will end
5mo ago
Appreciate the response!
I would strongly argue that the EFF's rhetoric, claiming to me be marxist and supporting pan-Africanism, has made them the party of affluent black (and leftist white) university students. I would strongly argue that SA mirrors the US in so many ways. I can just look at how well the EFF has done in university suburbs in Cape Town, which are not cheap. In the rural Eastern Cape, these messages don't land.
Aren't the EFF the ones famous for (at least some of them) claiming they're going to kill white people? I would have thought even leftist white students might find that somewhat objectionable. The revolutionary spirit is one helluva drug, I guess.
I'm not sure there's enough detail in the linked article to draw any meaningful conclusions. Were a number of young people asked "do you accept homosexuality?" as a single binary-choice question, or were they responding to longer surveys that included questions from "Should gay sex be illegal?" to "Do you think pride parades include too much publicly indecency" or "Do you think there's too much focus on LGBT representation in the media"? If the latter case, any nuanced set of opinions over a range of topics would probably still be reported by the media as "unaccepting" even though this would be quite different from simply answering "yes" in the first case.
I'm pretty interested in the situation in SA generally but have very little insight of my own to provide. Hopefully adding a comment here at least bumps the salience of this thread such that it attracts the attention of someone more knowledgeable about the area.
Regarding the mediocre performance of the SwedenDemocrats (Sweden's far-right party) in particular, my guess is that a lot of people who vote for them domestically aren't particularly Eurosceptic, but sick of MENA immigration and perceived softness on crime. There's probably therefore less motivation for to vote in an election that they're likely to feel has less direct influence on these issues.
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